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Full-Text Articles in Business
Who Survived The Titanic? A Logistic Regression Analysis, Lonnie K. Stevans, David Gleicher
Who Survived The Titanic? A Logistic Regression Analysis, Lonnie K. Stevans, David Gleicher
Lonnie K. Stevans
A logistic regression analysis of an extensive data set on the Titanic passengers is presented which tests the likelihood that a Titanic passenger survived the accident--based upon passenger characteristics. The main finding is that underneath the strong overt preference afforded in the rescue by the authorities to women and children over men, there was a complex class determination of survival rates among men, on the one hand, and women and children, on the other. We hypothesize that the statistical interactions of gender and class are explained by two crucial decisions made by the ship’s authorities: 1. to encourage, and perhaps …
Technical Note: Comparative Static Analysis Of Information Value In A Canonical Decision Problem, Jeffrey Keisler
Technical Note: Comparative Static Analysis Of Information Value In A Canonical Decision Problem, Jeffrey Keisler
Jeffrey Keisler
To gain insight into the behavior of the value of information, this paper identifies specific rules for a canonical decision problem: the two-act linear loss decision with normal prior probability distributions. Conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information increases when mean and standard deviation are both linear functions of an exogenous variable. A variety of richer decision problems can be adapted to the problem, so that the general results obtained here can be immediately applied to understand drivers of information value.
Allocating Contractor Risks In The Hanford Waste Cleanup, Jeffrey M. Keisler, William A. Buehring, Peter D. Mclaughlin, Mark A. Robershotte, Ronald G. Whitfield
Allocating Contractor Risks In The Hanford Waste Cleanup, Jeffrey M. Keisler, William A. Buehring, Peter D. Mclaughlin, Mark A. Robershotte, Ronald G. Whitfield
Jeffrey Keisler
Organizations may view outsourcing as a way to manage risk. We developed a decision-analytic approach to determine which risks the buyer can share or shift to vendors and which ones it should bear. We found that allocating risks incorrectly could increase costs dramatically. Between 1995 and 1998, we used this approach to develop the request for proposals (RFP) for the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) privatization initiative for the Hanford tank waste remediation system (TWRS). In the model, we used an assessment protocol to predict how vendors would react to proposed risk allocations in terms of their actions and their …
Aggregate Consumption Spending, The Stock Market, And Asymmetric Error Correction, Lonnie K. Stevans
Aggregate Consumption Spending, The Stock Market, And Asymmetric Error Correction, Lonnie K. Stevans
Lonnie K. Stevans
In this study, we show how changes in wealth resulting from unanticipated changes in the value of equity holdings begin a process whereby households alter consumption growth in order to close the gap between actual and target spending. Because of changing uncertainty or equity price volatility over the stock market cycle, we found the time path of this adjustment to exhibit near random walk behavior during stock market downturns. Conversely, during “boom” periods, e.g. when the value of equities held by households was greater than the threshold, the growth in consumer spending was quick to eliminate the disparity between actual …
The Creation And Growth Of Ict Based Industrial Clusters: The New Zealand Case, Malcolm J. Fraser, Stephen Kelly
The Creation And Growth Of Ict Based Industrial Clusters: The New Zealand Case, Malcolm J. Fraser, Stephen Kelly
Malcolm Fraser
This paper provides an exploratory review of current global research on industrial clusters, and seeks to identify the key success components of these clusters. It then discusses these attributes in terms of their implication for New Zealand ICT industrial clusters. It is argued that by reviewing the success attributes underpinning industrial clusters a baseline can be established for decision-making in both the commercial activities of industry vertical groups, as well as local/central government economic policy formulation. The paper identifies the key success factors as the presence of large pillar firms that intact with strong local demand via a sophisticated work …
Teaching Decision Making With Baseball Examples, J. Eric Bickel
Teaching Decision Making With Baseball Examples, J. Eric Bickel
Eric Bickel
Sports examples can be wonderful vehicles for teaching OR/MS concepts. Baseball is particularly well suited to teaching statistics/probability, Markov decision processes, and decision analysis. This paper details a baseball example I developed to teach fundamental decision making skills. This example has been used successfully to teach decision making to undergraduates and graduates in technical and non-technical disciplines. It has also been used effectively in industry for training new MBAs and seasoned executives.