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Roads Or Radar: The Tradeoff Between Investments In Infrastructure And Forecasting When Facing Hurricane Risk, Eric Bickel, Seong Dae Kim
Roads Or Radar: The Tradeoff Between Investments In Infrastructure And Forecasting When Facing Hurricane Risk, Eric Bickel, Seong Dae Kim
Eric Bickel
When faced with a significant risk, society must decide howmuch to invest in prediction and response. For example, in the face of hurricane risk how much should we invest in better forecasting versus increased evacuation speed? To address this need, we develop a Markov decision processes model to analyze the interaction between the emergency response system and the emergency forecasting system. The model shows the tradeoff between the two investments given a budget limit. In addition, the research indicates that the superiority of the investment changes sharply by the lead time.
Some Comparisons Among Quadratic, Spherical, And Logarithmic Scoring Rules, Eric Bickel
Some Comparisons Among Quadratic, Spherical, And Logarithmic Scoring Rules, Eric Bickel
Eric Bickel
Strictly proper scoring rules continue to play an important role in probability assessment. Although many such rules have been developed, relatively little guidance exists as to which rule is the most appropriate. In this paper, we discuss two important properties of quadratic, spherical, and logarithmic scoring rules. From an ex post perspective, we compare their rank order properties and conclude that both quadratic and spherical scoring perform poorly in this regard, relative to logarithmic. Second, from an ex ante perspective, we demonstrate that in many situations, logarithmic scoring is the method least affected by a nonlinear utility function. These results …