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Full-Text Articles in Business
Gambling With Momentum: How Gambling Cultures Shape Financial Markets, Daniel Mosman
Gambling With Momentum: How Gambling Cultures Shape Financial Markets, Daniel Mosman
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
Do people who gamble carry such preferences into their investments? This study looks at various factors which are used to identify countries with a significant gambling population, and seeks to find a relationship with those gambling tendencies and premiums associated with momentum. From historical market data from financial markets in 45 different countries I found stronger evidence of a momentum premium in those countries which have those identifying factors for gambling, than those that do not. Results of the regression analysis suggest weak evidence that it is possible that the momentum premium could be associated with gambling preferences and culture …
Forecasting Stock Returns In Good And Bad Times: The Role Of Market States, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Forecasting Stock Returns In Good And Bad Times: The Role Of Market States, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample R-squares are 0.96% and 1.72% in good and bad times, or 1.28% and 1.41% in NBER economic expansions and recessions, respectively. The TMR predictability pattern holds in the cross-section of U.S. stocks and the international markets. Our study shows that the absence of return predictability in good times, an important finding of recent studies, is largely driven by …
Does Volatility Scaling Improve The Performance Of Momentum Strategies In The Pakistan Stock Exchange?, Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt
Does Volatility Scaling Improve The Performance Of Momentum Strategies In The Pakistan Stock Exchange?, Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt
Business Review
Momentum profits are low among stocks listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange. We explore whether this can be improved by exploiting the predicted negative relationship between returns and volatility of momentum strategies. This relationship suggests that momentum returns increase/decrease with decrease/increase in the volatility/variance of momentum returns during the previous six months. We find that scaled momentum strategies outperform the traditional strategy in terms of higher raw returns, risk-adjusted returns and Sharpe ratios. To show the superiority of scaled momentum strategies, we bootstrap the sample 100,000 times and generate the lognormal distribution of holding-period returns for all momentum strategies. We …