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Articles 1 - 8 of 8
Full-Text Articles in Business
Testing Investment Strategies For Superior Predictive Ability, Jack K. Baldwin
Testing Investment Strategies For Superior Predictive Ability, Jack K. Baldwin
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
When different models are tested on one data sample and repeatedly altered in order to be found significant, the results are likely spurious. This is data-snooping – an ever-growing problem in the finance industry likely due to fierce competition and developments in data processing capacity. In academia, although recognized as a deplorable practice, data-snooping is likewise pervasive perhaps as a result of poor incentive structures at both the university and publisher levels. I manifest the problem of data-snooping through multiple academic and industry examples and then summarize Halbert White and Peter Hansen’s offered solutions, White’s Reality Check and Hansen’s Test …
Industry Stock Prices Around Covid-19, Daniel Cardall
Industry Stock Prices Around Covid-19, Daniel Cardall
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
In this study, I examine how market participants respond to global uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. More specifically, I analyze the industries most affected by the outbreak. The pandemic has created events never before seen at such a global level. Governments closed their country’s borders and quarantined their residents. Business owners closed their doors. These unforeseen events put the world economy at a standstill. I find that these decisions caused the U.S. stock markets to crash by more than 30%. The industries that experienced the most negative value-weighted abnormal returns were Carry, Meals, and Books. The industries that exhibited the …
Reexamining Metallgesellschaft’S Hedging Policy: Does Anything Beat A One-For-One Hedge Ratio?, Christopher Haddock
Reexamining Metallgesellschaft’S Hedging Policy: Does Anything Beat A One-For-One Hedge Ratio?, Christopher Haddock
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
There has been significant debate surrounding Metallgesellschaft's derivatives based fixed-price marketing strategy. Most of this debate relates to Metallgesellschaft's choice to use a one-for-one hedge ratio instead of an alternative hedge ratio optimized for risk management. I contribute to this discussion by reexamining the hedging strategy of Metallgesellschaft and use the Test for Superior Predictive Ability to determine whether any hedge ratio less than one outperforms the one-for-one hedge utilized by Metallgesellschaft.
The Relative Industry Specific Effects Of Covid-19 On Market Volatility And Liquidity, Callin Christensen
The Relative Industry Specific Effects Of Covid-19 On Market Volatility And Liquidity, Callin Christensen
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
Understanding how historical events affect market volatility and liquidity can provide crucial information to financial analysts, investment professionals, and managers in the event that similar circumstances resurface. In this study, I look at how a global pandemic (COVID-19) can introduce frictions into the market and cause disrupt the generation or flow of available information, this could cause prices to deviate significantly from their equilibrium values. I also hypothesize that these inefficiencies may have a greater effect on some industries than others. My analysis seems to confirm this hypothesis. I observe that the global COVID-19 pandemic leads to statistically significant increases …
Reinforcement Learning For Dynamic Futures Hedging, Evan Bullard
Reinforcement Learning For Dynamic Futures Hedging, Evan Bullard
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
This paper focuses on oil hedging using near month crude oil futures. Hedging may allow a firm to reduce risks and focus on areas of comparative advantage. Hedging requires a firm to estimate ex-ante the correct hedge ratio. The portfolio optimization framework allows for OLS to be applied to the estimation of a hedge ratio. Reinforcement Learning is another method available to hedgers to estimate a hedge ratio. Three strategies using econometric tools and one using Reinforcement Learning are estimated and tested against 2019 oil price data.
Mass Shootings And The Performance Of Tourism Stocks, Marshall Deem
Mass Shootings And The Performance Of Tourism Stocks, Marshall Deem
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
This study investigates the effects of mass shooting events on the performance of the tourism industry within the United States. The results of the study show that outside of the market-wide returns, the performance of tourism stocks is negatively impacted after a large-scale mass shooting event. Furthermore, when separating extreme outliers in the data such as the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay shooting, the results of the study find that tourism stocks surrounding other large-scale mass shootings are significantly negative. Overall, the results of the study demonstrate a negative response in the tourism industry to large-scale mass shootings.
Black-Scholes And Neural Networks, Gabriel Adams
Black-Scholes And Neural Networks, Gabriel Adams
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
Neural networks have been proven to be universal approximators. We use neural networks to investigate the relationship between the quality of input data and the quality of outputted predictions from a neural network. We show that neural networks perform better on option pricing data with quality data and perform worse with lower quality data.
Implementing Option Pricing Model, Zhao Ming
Implementing Option Pricing Model, Zhao Ming
All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023
In this paper I replicate Clewlow and Strickland's control variates methods based on Greek letters method to test if it can improve the simulation efficiency. First, I use Black Scholes Merton formula for option pricing as a benchmark, to compare with the European call option price from Monte Carlo methods. Then I use Greek letters as control variates to reduce sample standard deviation and improve the efficiency of the Monte Carlo simulation. The whole process is programming in C++. C++ is a compiled language which can generate machine code from source code and provide a shorter running time. This paper …