Business Commons^™

Do Board Diversity And Gender Quotas Affect Firm Value? Evidence From California Assembly Bill No. 979, Emily Kelleen Blake, Sepideh Raei, Katarzyna A. Bilicka, Todd Griffith

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

We analyze the stock market reaction and returns for California-headquartered companies following the announcement of AB 979 (California Assembly Bill 979) that was signed into effect on September 30th, 2020. AB 979 requires public firms headquartered in California to meet board gender and diversity quotas by December 31st, 2021. Cumulative abnormal returns in a [-1, +1] event window average a 0.98% abnormal return as benchmarked against all publicly traded firms and a 1.29% abnormal return when benchmarked against our control group (of firms headquartered outside of California). California headquartered firms with exclusively male boards had a larger cumulative abnormal return …

The Volatility Implications Of The Chinese Cryptocurrency Ban, Keaton Manwaring

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

In this paper, I examine the effect of the May 18^th, 2021 Chinese ban of cryptocurrency transactions on the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market. To do this, I analyze, in both univariate and multivariate settings, range-based volatility in various event windows surrounding the event. I find clear economic and statistical change in volatility in the five days after the ban. In the ten-day period after the ban, there is a moderate economic change in volatility. In the forty-day period after the ban, there is little economic change in volatility. I conclude that the Chinese ban had a …

A Reexamination Of The Illiquidity Premium In Cryptocurrencies, Wyatt Fitz

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

In this study, I examine the illiquidity premium amongst the 372 most actively traded cryptocurrencies from September 2014 to May 2021. I find that the average returns on the most illiquid cryptocurrencies are larger than those on the most liquid cryptocurrencies. My results are robust to different weighting mechanisms for the market index and to various asset pricing model specifications. These results suggest that an investor might be able to go long a portfolio of illiquid cryptocurrencies while simultaneously shorting a portfolio of liquid cryptocurrencies to effectively generate a positive risk-adjusted return.

Short Selling Around Reverse Stock Splits, Ryan Voges

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

I examine whether short selling increases around reverse stock splits using 2019 daily short selling data instead of bimonthly short interest data required by FINRA. In my difference-in-difference analysis, I find that average short selling increases significantly for firms that reverse split their stock, relative to matched control firms that do not, around the split dates. I also find that firms that reverse split their stock experience negative cumulative abnormal returns in the 20-day period after the reverse stock splits, particularly for those firms that are heavily shorted. These results are in agreeance with existent literature and suggest that short …

The Effects Of Bank Lobbying And Elections Surprises, Gregory Logan Tarbet

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper examines the stock market reaction to banks that lobby relative to banks that did not lobby in the period around the November 9, 2016, U.S. presidential election. Using three different methods of event studies to calculate the cumulative average return, we find that lobbying in banks has a meaningful relationship to an abnormal increase in those firm’s stock prices. Then we attempt to control for both the systemic importance and size of these institutions by performing cross-sectional regressions that include matched size, and the systemic nature of the banks. The results suggest that a heavily regulated industry such …

Retail Trading And Stock Volatility: The Case Of Robinhood, Cooper Jones

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

We examine the relation between Robinhood usership and stock market volatility. We show that daily fluctuations in Robinhood usership, which is used to proxy retail trading, significantly influence various measures of volatility. These results might suggest that Robinhood users contribute to noise trading as they are generally individuals trading on name recognition, media coverage, popularity, and familiarity of products, rather than on fundamental values. In our empirical approach, we find that the percentage increase in Robinhood usership Granger causes increases in daily stock volatility.

Pharmaceutical Stock Prices Around Medicare Part D Expansion, Spencer Powell

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

On January 1, 2006 Medicare part D expanded, giving prescription coverage to many Americans. This event offers an interesting question regarding market efficiency, specifically because Medicare expansion was introduced into congress as far back as 1999. Because Medicare part D affected pharmaceutical drug coverage, this study focuses specifically on securities in the pharmaceutical industry. Following an efficient market hypothesis, we would expect to see significant abnormal returns in the post event window, anticipating the legislations effect on demand within the industry. Results showed significant abnormal returns in post-event window, but not in the pre-event window. The returns in the post-event …

Corporate Venture Capital And Its Effects On Company Valuation - An Analysis Of The Additions Of Cvc Arms, Joshua Lyman

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper examines the stock price reaction to the addition of corporate venture capital arms to publicly traded companies. Referencing venture capital resources, corporate press release announcements of the addition of CVC arms were hand collected. I calculate the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) surrounding press release announcement dates and find immediate stock market reactions, positively increasing stock prices compared to the overall market. I further perform placebo event studies at random dates and with direct competitors using the same announcement dates and find no significant results. These findings suggest that corporate venture capital increases company valuation and that financial markets …

Testing Investment Strategies For Superior Predictive Ability, Jack K. Baldwin

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

When different models are tested on one data sample and repeatedly altered in order to be found significant, the results are likely spurious. This is data-snooping – an ever-growing problem in the finance industry likely due to fierce competition and developments in data processing capacity. In academia, although recognized as a deplorable practice, data-snooping is likewise pervasive perhaps as a result of poor incentive structures at both the university and publisher levels. I manifest the problem of data-snooping through multiple academic and industry examples and then summarize Halbert White and Peter Hansen’s offered solutions, White’s Reality Check and Hansen’s Test …

Industry Stock Prices Around Covid-19, Daniel Cardall

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

In this study, I examine how market participants respond to global uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. More specifically, I analyze the industries most affected by the outbreak. The pandemic has created events never before seen at such a global level. Governments closed their country’s borders and quarantined their residents. Business owners closed their doors. These unforeseen events put the world economy at a standstill. I find that these decisions caused the U.S. stock markets to crash by more than 30%. The industries that experienced the most negative value-weighted abnormal returns were Carry, Meals, and Books. The industries that exhibited the …

Reexamining Metallgesellschaft’S Hedging Policy: Does Anything Beat A One-For-One Hedge Ratio?, Christopher Haddock

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

There has been significant debate surrounding Metallgesellschaft's derivatives based fixed-price marketing strategy. Most of this debate relates to Metallgesellschaft's choice to use a one-for-one hedge ratio instead of an alternative hedge ratio optimized for risk management. I contribute to this discussion by reexamining the hedging strategy of Metallgesellschaft and use the Test for Superior Predictive Ability to determine whether any hedge ratio less than one outperforms the one-for-one hedge utilized by Metallgesellschaft.

The Relative Industry Specific Effects Of Covid-19 On Market Volatility And Liquidity, Callin Christensen

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Understanding how historical events affect market volatility and liquidity can provide crucial information to financial analysts, investment professionals, and managers in the event that similar circumstances resurface. In this study, I look at how a global pandemic (COVID-19) can introduce frictions into the market and cause disrupt the generation or flow of available information, this could cause prices to deviate significantly from their equilibrium values. I also hypothesize that these inefficiencies may have a greater effect on some industries than others. My analysis seems to confirm this hypothesis. I observe that the global COVID-19 pandemic leads to statistically significant increases …

Reinforcement Learning For Dynamic Futures Hedging, Evan Bullard

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper focuses on oil hedging using near month crude oil futures. Hedging may allow a firm to reduce risks and focus on areas of comparative advantage. Hedging requires a firm to estimate ex-ante the correct hedge ratio. The portfolio optimization framework allows for OLS to be applied to the estimation of a hedge ratio. Reinforcement Learning is another method available to hedgers to estimate a hedge ratio. Three strategies using econometric tools and one using Reinforcement Learning are estimated and tested against 2019 oil price data.

Mass Shootings And The Performance Of Tourism Stocks, Marshall Deem

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This study investigates the effects of mass shooting events on the performance of the tourism industry within the United States. The results of the study show that outside of the market-wide returns, the performance of tourism stocks is negatively impacted after a large-scale mass shooting event. Furthermore, when separating extreme outliers in the data such as the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay shooting, the results of the study find that tourism stocks surrounding other large-scale mass shootings are significantly negative. Overall, the results of the study demonstrate a negative response in the tourism industry to large-scale mass shootings.

Black-Scholes And Neural Networks, Gabriel Adams

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Neural networks have been proven to be universal approximators. We use neural networks to investigate the relationship between the quality of input data and the quality of outputted predictions from a neural network. We show that neural networks perform better on option pricing data with quality data and perform worse with lower quality data.

Implementing Option Pricing Model, Zhao Ming

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

In this paper I replicate Clewlow and Strickland's control variates methods based on Greek letters method to test if it can improve the simulation efficiency. First, I use Black Scholes Merton formula for option pricing as a benchmark, to compare with the European call option price from Monte Carlo methods. Then I use Greek letters as control variates to reduce sample standard deviation and improve the efficiency of the Monte Carlo simulation. The whole process is programming in C++. C++ is a compiled language which can generate machine code from source code and provide a shorter running time. This paper …

Deep Reinforcement Learning Pairs Trading, Andrew Brim

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This research applies a deep reinforcement learning technique, Deep Q-network, to a stock market pairs trading strategy for profit. Artificial intelligent methods have long since been applied to optimize trading strategies. This work trains and tests a DQN to trade co-integrated stock market prices, in a pairs trading strategy. The results demonstrate the DQN is able to consistently produce positive returns when executing a pairs trading strategy.

The Performance Of Military Defense Contracted Companies After September 11th, 2001: The Case Of Politically Connected Companies, Derek J. Larsen

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper examines the effect that the terrorist attacks on September 11^th, 2001 had on the stock prices of companies within the military defense industry. In addition, this paper studies the effect of the defense firms’ political engagement (through lobbying activities) and how this affected the stock price response to the terrorist attacks. Our study finds that the cumulative abnormal returns of these companies are positively significant and that companies who lobbied experienced higher returns relative to those who did not lobby.

Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Filtered historical simulation with an underlying GARCH process can be used as a valuable tool in VaR analysis, as it derives risk estimates that are sensitive to the distributional properties of the historical data of the produced predictive density. I examine the applications to risk analysis that filtered historical simulation can provide, as well as an interpretation of the predictive density as a poor man’s Bayesian posterior distribution. The predictive density allows us to make associated probabilistic statements regarding the results for VaR analysis, giving greater measurement of risk and the ability to maintain the optimal level of risk per …

The Stock Return Changes Of Chinese Adr Before And After Trump's Election And Imposed Tariff On Chinese Goods, Suyao Liu

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This study examines the stock return changes of Chinese ADR company likely be affected by Trump’s election on November 9, 2016, the signing of tariff Chinese goods bill on March 8, 2018, and the tariff bill takes into act on March 23, 2018. The results show that, relative to the entire market, the stock prices of Chinese ADR companies underperform. Our analysis provides evidence that it’s hard to find that these three events would affect a particular industry of Chinese ADR the most.

Financial Outcomes From Selection Of Insurance Intervals, Shana Anderson Stewart

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential value of enrolling in rainfall-index for pasture, rangeland, and forage insurance for Utah producers. A stochastic optimization model is used to identify the optimal selection of insurance intervals that will provide the maximum indemnity payments less premiums. Four Utah counties were selected for analysis. Results indicate that positive returns will occur greater than 60% of the time in all counties with the selected insurance intervals. The optimal months to insure varied in each county.

Lobbying Legislation And Cumulative Abnormal Returns, Brenan Stewart

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007 (Pub.L. 110-81, 121 Stat. 735, enacted September 14, 2007) was passed by the U.S. Congress in order “to strengthen public disclosure requirements concerning lobbying activity and funding. It placed more restrictions on gifts for members of Congress and their staff, and provides for mandatory disclosure of earmarks in expenditure bills.” Treating this event as a natural experiment, we examine how this legislation affected the Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) of firms that lobbied in the year(s) leading up to the passing of the legislation. We find that companies that lobbied in the …

The Free Cash Flow And Corporate Returns, Sen Na

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Mcpherson (2018) and Jose, Lancaster, Stevens (1996) have written papers to examine the relationship between liquidity management and firm profitability. The literature establishes that the cash conversion cycle has an implication for the profitability and liquidity of a firm. We extend the time period and analyze the free cash flow instead of cash conversion cycle. We provide evidence that firms with higher free cash flows have higher risk adjusted stock returns.

Performance Of The Vidya Indicator Using Bootstrap, Lucas Priskos

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper analyses the performance of the Volatility Index Dynamic Average Indicator (VIDYA) as a method for technical trading. The question was whether or not the buy and sell signals generated by VIDYA could allow a trader to outperform the benchmark rate of return. The strategy is implemented in a similar way to a standard moving average crossover where two lines are charted: a short period VIDYA and a long period VIDYA. The four combinations of VIDYA were used were as follows: 6 with 21 periods, 9 with 21 periods, 12 with 21 periods, and 21 with 50 periods. When …

The Effects Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Common Stock And American Depository Receipts, Bradley David Zynda Ii

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Uncertainty can have profound implications on both firms and individuals who hope to optimally make decisions in their best interest. In this research, I seek to examine the impact that economic policy uncertainty has on domestic and foreign stock. In particular, I take a market microstructure perspective focused on stock liquidity and volatility measures in response to changes in economic policy uncertainty. Understanding the directional flow of economic policy uncertainty and the magnitude of the consequences at home and abroad can both help prepare agents to make good decisions about the future and exhort policy makers to be more efficient …

Implementing The Heston Option Pricing Model In Object-Oriented Cython, Brandon Hardin

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The 1973 Black-Scholes model, a revolutionary option pricing formula whose price is 'relatively close to observed prices, makes an assumption that the volatility is constant and thus, deterministic. This causes some inefficiencies and patterns in the pricing of options due to the model providing evidence of the volatility smile' of the volatility. Many scholars have suggested that the volatility should be modelled by a stochastic process and the (1993) Heston Model is one of many proposed solutions to remedy this problem. The Heston Model allows for the 'smile' by defining the volatility as a stochastic process. This thesis considers a …

Application: Solving For A Local Companys Optimal Storage Strategy, Dakota Ferrin

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This project used historical spot and futures price data of two fairly closely correlated commodities to simulate many possible spot and futures price paths that could have occurred over a given time frame. These simulated prices were then used to test various commodity storage strategies available through futures contracts. This paper explains how results, including values such as the mean terminal cumulative profit and the standard deviation of the mean terminal cumulative profits for each strategy, can be interpreted to help determine a local company’s optimal storage strategy.

This paper specifically provides a way for a local company to find …

Performance Of Statistical Arbitrage In Future Markets, Shijie Sheng

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper is the replication of Alizadeh and Nomikos (2008) Performance of Statistical Arbitrage in Petroleum Futures Markets. Cited methodology from the original paper, this paper investigates the linkages between commodities in the future markets and apply trading strategy based on statistical analysis. The trading strategy is established based on cointegration relationships between commodities and execute trading rules to determine long-short positions. The robustness of trading result will be implemented by using stationary bootstrap approach. From the result, we can see the trading strategy based on cointegration relationship analysis is efficient to set up trading strategies in given datasets.

Debt/Equity Ratio And Asset Pricing Analysis, Nicholas Lyle

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

A firm’s value can be manipulated by altering how much debt a firm takes on relative to its equity called the Debt/Equity ratio. The positive aspects of debt are tax shields and the perception that the firm is trying to expand their current operations while the negative effects are increased bankruptcy risk. The optimal ratio is where the negative aspects begin to outweigh the positive. Since bankruptcy risk is hard to value there are many opinions on what the optimal Debt/Equity ratio for a specific firm is.

This study looks to historic data to determine how the market perceives debt …

The Efficiency Of Liquidity Resiliency, Nathan Burton

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Using a VECM to estimate the dynamics of liquidity, in this case bid-ask spread, I run simulations for stocks of varying market capitalizations and find that lower market cap stocks require more orders to return to equilibrium spread following a shock, suggesting less efficiency of price discovery in lower cap stocks. Despite the greater number of order necessary for lower cap stocks, the return to equilibrium spread is still very fast, suggesting a relatively efficient market for NYSE and NASDAQ stocks in the upper three market cap quartiles.