Business Commons^™

State-Contingent Overconfidence : Application To Bank Loans, Sze Nam Chan

Lingnan Theses and Dissertations

Overconfidence (arrogance or overestimation of one’s ability) has often been viewed in the finance literature as a character trait that is stable over time. This paper, however, provides a first attempt to show that overconfidence can be state-contingent, that is, the level of overconfidence among overconfident individuals could be influenced by an external shock such as a financial crisis and a change in regulation, for example, the adoption of Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX). Both our experimental (based on psychological approach on over-precision) and empirical results using more than 4500 manager-year observations through controlling different personal and firm characteristics show that individual …