Business Commons^™

Using Multiple And Logistic Regression To Estimate The Median Will-Cost And Probability Of Cost And Schedule Overrun For Program Managers, Ryan C. Trudelle

Theses and Dissertations

The main concern of a program manager is to manage the cost, schedule, and performance triad of a program. Historically, programs tend to meet the performance aspect at the expense of cost or schedule, or both. This research gives the acquisition community a set of tools that enables them to impartially analyze the cost and schedule of their programs, helping to mitigate these issues. Five regression models encompass this toolset; one to estimate the median program cost and four to identify the probability of realizing a given overrun. The cost model explains 81% of the variation in program acquisition using …