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- Volatility Persistence (3)
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Articles 1 - 16 of 16
Full-Text Articles in Business
The Impact Of Brexit Debates On Irish Exports: A Causality Analysis, Rawayda Abdou, Klavs Ciprikis, Lucia Morales, Damien Cassells
The Impact Of Brexit Debates On Irish Exports: A Causality Analysis, Rawayda Abdou, Klavs Ciprikis, Lucia Morales, Damien Cassells
Conference papers
The UK decision to leave the EU has larger implications for Ireland due to its significant exposure to the UK economy. As such a no-deal Brexit scenario raises significant concerns regarding the impact, the magnitude and the lasting effects of the shock to the Irish economy. Leading up to the final weeks before the UK leaves the EU, this study explores the relationship between economic and political uncertainty surrounding Brexit and its potential causal effects to the Irish economy. The agriculture, manufacturing, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors are the focus of attention as they are considered to be the most exposed …
Heterogeneity In The Speed Of Adjustment To Target Leverage: A Uk Study, James Fitzgerald, James Ryan, Sheila Killian
Heterogeneity In The Speed Of Adjustment To Target Leverage: A Uk Study, James Fitzgerald, James Ryan, Sheila Killian
Conference papers
Responding to the need to address heterogeneity in the speed of adjustment (SOA) to target leverage in a manner that reflects the fractional nature of leverage, we estimate SOAs across sub-samples of UK firms using the Dynamic Panel Fractional estimator (DPF). Using firm risk as a categorising variable, we show that riskier firms tend to adjust to target leverage at a faster rate, suggesting opportunity costs of being away from target leverage are higher for riskier firms. We also demonstrate the bias in SOAs as estimated using a model that does not account for the fractional nature of leverage, and …
Stock Market Prediction Without Sentiment Analysis: Using A Web-Traffic Based Classifier And User-Level Analysis, Pierpaolo Dondio
Stock Market Prediction Without Sentiment Analysis: Using A Web-Traffic Based Classifier And User-Level Analysis, Pierpaolo Dondio
Conference papers
This paper provides further evidence on the predictive power of online community traffic with regard to stock prices. Using the largest dataset to date, spanning 8 years and almost the complete set of SP500 stocks, we train a classifier using a set of features entirely extracted from web-traffic data of financial online communities. The classifier is shown to outperform the predictive power of a baseline classifier solely based on price time-series, and to have similar performances as the classifier built considering price and traffic features together. The best predictive performances are achieved when information about stock capitalization is coupled with …
Volatility Analysis Of Precious Metals Returns And Oil Returns, Lucia Morales, Bernadette Andreosso
Volatility Analysis Of Precious Metals Returns And Oil Returns, Lucia Morales, Bernadette Andreosso
Conference papers
This study examines volatility persistence on precious metals returns taking into account oil returns and the three world major stock equity indices (Dow Jones Industrials, FTSE 100, and Nikkei 225) using daily data over the sample period January 1995- May 2008. We first determine when large changes in the volatility of each market returns occur, by identifying major global events that would increase the volatility of these markets; the Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) algorithm helps identify the break points or sudden changes in the variance of returns in each market using the standardized residuals obtained through the GARCH(1,1) …
Predicting Currency Pair Trends Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Kieran Murphy
Predicting Currency Pair Trends Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Kieran Murphy
Conference papers
This paper reports on the results of a research and development pro- gramme concerned with the analysis of currency pair exchange time series for Forex trading in an intensive applications and services environment. In particular, we present some of the preliminary results obtained for Forex trading using MetaTrader 4 with a new set of trend indicators deigned using a mathematical model that is based on the Fractal Market Hypothesis. This includes examples of various currency pair exchange rates considered over di erent time intervals and use of the indicators in a live trading environment to place a buy/sell order.
The Global Financial Crisis: World Market Or Regional Contagion Effects?, Lucia Morales, Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan
The Global Financial Crisis: World Market Or Regional Contagion Effects?, Lucia Morales, Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan
Conference papers
In the last two decades, the world economy has been challenged by different economic and financial crisis. These events have captured researchers’ attention, and in particular the analysis of contagion effects derived from stock market shocks have been a focal point of interesting discussions. However, there is little consensus on how contagion should be defined and indentified. Consequently, this paper contributes to the already settled debate on the area proposing the analysis of contagion effects in a worldwide framework, where three different econometric models to test for contagion are being used. The main results are in line with most of …
Economic Risk Assessment Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Marek Rebow
Economic Risk Assessment Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Marek Rebow
Conference papers
This paper considers the Fractal Market Hypothesi (FMH) for assessing the risk(s) in developing a financial portfolio based on data that is available through the Internet from an increasing number of sources. Most financial risk management systems are still based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis which often fails due to the inaccuracies of the statistical models that underpin the hypothesis, in particular, that financial data are based on stationary Gaussian processes. The FMH considered in this paper assumes that financial data are non-stationary and statistically self-affine so that a risk analysis can, in principal, be applied at any time scale …
The Ceecs’ Banking System: A Risk Study During The Global Financial Crisis, Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan, Lucia Morales, Valentina Tarkovska
The Ceecs’ Banking System: A Risk Study During The Global Financial Crisis, Bernadette Andreosso-O'Callaghan, Lucia Morales, Valentina Tarkovska
Conference papers
We consider operational risk and market integration in the banking system of the Central and East European Countries’ (CEECs). The analysis provides an interesting framework in relation to the effects of the global financial crisis in some European emerging banks. We implement an econometric model that takes into account the level of integration of these banks in relation to a number of most developed institutions, which are represented by the Dow Jones STOXX 600 index, with the objective of analyzing how this could be impacting the level of operational risk in the region. This paper provides new evidence that links …
Volatility Spillovers On Precious Metals Markets: The Effects Of The Asian Crisis, Lucia Morales
Volatility Spillovers On Precious Metals Markets: The Effects Of The Asian Crisis, Lucia Morales
Conference papers
This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between precious metals returns over the 1995- July 2007 period. We analyzed daily closing values for precious metals data, we took the US$/Troy ounce for gold, the London Free Market Platinum price in US$/Troy ounce, the London Free Market Palladium price in US$/Troy once, and the Zurich silver price in US$/kilogram. We divide our sample into a number of sub periods, prior to, during and after the Asian crisis, with the objective to provide a wide analysis of the behaviour of the precious metals markets during this crisis; we use GARCH and …
Do Precious Metals Markets Influence Stock Markets?, Lucia Morales
Do Precious Metals Markets Influence Stock Markets?, Lucia Morales
Conference papers
This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock returns and precious metals returns for the G-7 countries over the 1995-2006 period. We divide our sample into a number of sub periods, prior to, during and after the Asian crisis, with the objective to provide a wide analysis of the behaviour of these two markets taking into account the effects of the Asian crisis; we use EGARCH modelling which takes into account whether bad news has the same impact on volatility as good news. The results show that there is no evidence of volatility persistence from stock returns to …
Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns And Foreign Exchange Rates: Evidence From Four Eastern European Countries, Lucia Morales
Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns And Foreign Exchange Rates: Evidence From Four Eastern European Countries, Lucia Morales
Conference papers
This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock returns and exchange rates changes for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia for the 1999-2006 period. We divide our sample in two sub period, prior to the introduction of the Euro as since the single currency has been introduced. We use an EGARCH modelling which takes into account whether bad news has the same impact on volatility as good news. Our results show that in terms of volatility spillover effects from stock returns to exchange rates returns, there is non-existence of significant spillovers in these countries, what suggest the …
European Equity Markets And Currency Markets Interlinkages, Lucia Morales
European Equity Markets And Currency Markets Interlinkages, Lucia Morales
Conference papers
This thesis examines the relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in a number of European countries. We focus our attention in three different regions of Europe that are: four Eastern European markets, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, four South European Countries: Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain and one West European Country: Ireland, using daily data we analyze the relationship between these two financial markets from 1996 to 2006. Both the long-run and the short-run association between these variables are analyzed. We employed the Engle and Granger two step and Johansen cointegration techniques, Vector Error Correction Modeling Technique and …
International Transmission Effects Of Volatility Between Financial Markets In The G-7 Since The Introduction Of The Euro, Lucia Morales
International Transmission Effects Of Volatility Between Financial Markets In The G-7 Since The Introduction Of The Euro, Lucia Morales
Conference papers
This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock returns and a number of exchange rates changes for the G-7 countries for the 1996-2006 period. We divide our sample into a number of sub periods, prior to and after the introduction of the Euro, we use EGARCH modelling which takes into account whether bad news has the same impact on volatility as good news. Our results show that in terms of volatility spillover effects from stock returns to exchange rates returns, there is a large degree of consistency across countries and time periods with significant spillovers found for all …
The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence From Four Transition Economies, Lucia Morales
The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence From Four Transition Economies, Lucia Morales
Conference papers
This article examines the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in four Easter European markets, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, using stock price and exchange rate data from these countries, as well as stock prices from the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. The data set consists of daily data over a 7 year period from 1999 to 2006. Both the long-run and the short-run association between these variables are analyzed. We employed the Johansen cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Modeling and the standard Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between these two financial variables. …
International Transmission Effects Of Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns And Exchange Rates: Evidence From Greece, Portugal And Spain Since The Introduction Of The Euro, Lucia Morales
Conference papers
This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock returns and exchange rate changes for Greece, Spain and Portugal for the 1999-2006 period after the introduction of the Euro as well as the 1999-2001 and 2002-2003/May and 2003/June-2006 periods since the Euro has been introduced. We use an EGARCH model which takes into account whether bad news has the same impact on volatility as good news. We also investigate whether volatility spillovers between exchange rates and equity markets is stronger for some currencies than others. We find that there were no significant volatility spillovers from stock returns to exchange …
Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Empiral Evidence From Six Apec Economies, Lucia Morales, Mary O'Donnell
Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Empiral Evidence From Six Apec Economies, Lucia Morales, Mary O'Donnell
Conference papers
This paper set out to examine the volatility linkages between stock returns and exchange rates in a number of East Asian markets. Overall, our main results indicate that since the Asian financial crises, there exists significant scope for investors and portfolio managers to diversify their assets between stocks and currencies in these markets. In particular, the lack of volatility spillovers between stock markets and exchange rates, and between exchange rates and stock markets in all countries, except Taiwan in the post crises period indicates that there is scope for investors to diversify their investments and to benefit from potential gains …