Business Commons^™

Analyzing The Efficiency Of Response To News Regarding Legalization Of Sports Wagering, Kevin Krieger, Justin L. Davis

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A landmark decision (Murphy v. NCAA) by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) in 2018 ruled the federal government could not prohibit states from allowing sports wagering. While the implications of this decision are far reaching at both an industry and societal level, our study assesses the market response to information available throughout the various phases leading up to this decision by SCOTUS. The timeline of events preceding the SCOTUS decision is tracked, and stock performances of relevant, publicly traded firms are analyzed across three inflection points. Findings suggest the market failed to adequately acknowledge key …

Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing

expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.

It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack

teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to

decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to

Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion

model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio

of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes

from a range of sources and the …