Business Commons^™

International Risk Sharing In Overlapping Generations Models, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We present a solution to the Backus-Smith puzzle that, instead of relying on extreme parameter values or complex modeling assumptions, simply switches the framework from infinitely lived agents to overlapping generations. Young agents face non-diversifiable wage risk that leads to a low degree of risk sharing within each country. Subsequently, international price movements are not sufficient to achieve the high consumption-real exchange rate correlation produced in standard infinitely lived agent DSGE models.

Executive Overconfidence And Securities Class Actions, Suman Banerjee, Mark Humphery-Jenner, Vikram Nanda, T. Mandy Tham

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Overconfident CEOs/senior executives tend to have excessively positive views of their own skills and their company’s future performance. We hypothesize that overconfident managers are more likely to engage in reckless or intentional actions/disclosures that give rise to securities class actions (SCAs). Empirical evidence is supportive: Overconfident CEOs/senior executives increase SCA likelihood, though litigation risk is ameliorated through improved governance, such as following the Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002. Post-SCA, companies are less likely to hire an overconfident CEO. Following an SCA, overconfident CEOs appear to moderate behavior and to reduce their litigation risk.

Likely Trajectory Of Fed Policy Far From Settled, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Markets seem to be assuming an almost pre-set path of Fed policy normalization in 2019, including hiking rates and shrinking the balance sheet. In contrast, we see many uncertainties ahead.

Partisan Conflict And Stock Price, Dashan Huang, Wang Liyao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Partisan conflict has been one dominant theme in U.S. politics in recent years. By using the textual index of Azzimonti (2018), this paper shows that partisan conflict positively predicts market returns, controlling for economic predictors and proxies for uncertainty, disagreement, geopolitical risk, and political sentiment. A one standard-deviation increase in partisan conflict is associated with a 0.58% increase in next month market return. The forecasting power concentrates in periods when the president is from the Republican Party or the majority of House is Republicans. Partisan conflict is positively related to downside risk, and makes investors more conservative when its value …

Is Uber A Substitute Or Complement For Public Transit?, Jonathan D. Hall, Craig Palsson, Joseph Price

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

How Uber affects public transit ridership is a relevant policy question facing cities worldwide. Theoretically, Uber’s effect on transit is ambiguous: while Uber is an alternative mode of travel, it can also increase the reach and flexibility of public transit’s fixed-route, fixed-schedule service. We estimate the effect of Uber on public transit ridership using a difference-in-differences design that exploits variation across U.S. metropolitan areas in both the intensity of Uber penetration and the timing of Uber entry. We find that Uber is a complement for the average transit agency, increasing ridership by five percent after two years. This average effect …

Gender Performativity And Hegemonic Masculinity In Investment Management, Corina Sheerin, Prof. Margaret Linehan

Dept of Applied Social Science

Purpose

Through an examination of the everyday organisational and social practices, this paper aims to consider gender performativity and hegemonic masculinity within front office investment management. At the core of this research is the need to understand the interactions between gender, power and patriarchy.

Design/methodology/approach

An interpretivist philosophical stance underpins the study. A theory-building approach using 19 semi-structured interviews with investment management employees based in Ireland was undertaken.

Findings

The findings highlight a sector in which gender is performed in line with sectoral expectations, which place men in positions of dominance with hegemonic masculinity inherent. The organisational structures and daily …

Could An Alternative Policy Design Have Produced A Stronger Mortgage Modification Outcome For Hamp?, Sean Macdonald

Publications and Research

This paper conducts a study of the relative effectiveness of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) - the primary federal mortgage loan modification program - from early 2009 through 2016. It evaluates U.S. Treasury Department and other data sources, and reviews the recent literature on the relative success of the program. The analysis suggests that HAMP’s success rate in modifying mortgage loans was likely constrained by its voluntary design, a structure that enabled lenders and servicers to prioritize the interests of investors in assessing the risks of modification. It then considers the economic issues surrounding the foreclosure issue and presents …

Labor Law And Innovation Revisited, Bill B. Francis, Incheol Kim, Bin Wang, Zhengyi Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper examines the impact of changes in job security on corporate innovation in 20 non-U.S. OECD countries. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we provide firm-level evidence that the enhancement of labor protection has a negative impact on innovation. We then discuss possible channels and find that employee-friendly labor reforms induce inventor shirking and a distortion in labor flow. Further investigation reveals that the negative relation is more pronounced in 1) firms that heavily rely on external financing, 2) firms that have high R&D intensity, 3) manufacturing industries, and 4) civil-law countries. Our micro-level evidence indicates that enhanced employment protection impedes …

Warrants And Their Underlying Stocks: Microstructure Evidence From An Emerging Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Stock Exchange of Thailand provides an ideal platform for comparing the trading characteristics of warrants and their underlying stocks since both of them trade in the same market under identical trading rules. If their patterns diverge significantly, it may be possible for an astute trader to devise profitable arbitrage strategies during the life of the warrants. We find that both their patterns are downward-sloping for spreads, U-shaped for flow toxicity, volatility, depth concentration, and trading volume; and upward-sloping for depth and market order flow ratio. This implies that trading under identical market structures leads to similar trading characteristics. We …

The Salience Theory Of Consumer Financial Regulation, Natasha Sarin

All Faculty Scholarship

Prior to the financial crisis, banks’ fee income was their fastest-growing source of revenue. This revenue was often generated through nefarious bank practices (e.g., ordering overdraft transactions for maximal fees). The crisis focused popular attention on the extent to which current regulatory tools failed consumers in these markets, and policymakers responded: A new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was tasked with monitoring consumer finance products, and some of the earliest post-crisis financial reforms sought to lower consumer costs. This Article is the first to empirically evaluate the success of the consumer finance reform agenda by considering three recent price regulations: a …

Marking To Market And Inefficient Investment Decisions, Clemens A. Otto, Paolo F. Volpin

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine how mark-to-market accounting affects the investment decisions of managers with reputation concerns. Reporting the current market value of a firm’s assets can help mitigate agency problems because it provides outsiders (e.g., shareholders) with new information against which the management’s decisions can be evaluated. However, the fact that the assets’ market value is informative can also have a negative side effect: managers may shy away from investments that indicate conflicting private information and would damage their reputation. This effect can lead to inefficient investment decisions and make marking to market less desirable when market prices are more informative.

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 21, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Esmeralda Muñiz

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Examining Moral Hazard In The Healthcare Insurance Market, Samuel Ashby

Honors College Theses

This study aims to examine the effect of insurance coverage on medical expenditure in the United States. The data was gathered from the Household Component Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and is a cross-sectional data set with a sample size of approximately 1500 observations. The study also distinguishes between public and private insurance coverage to compare the potential moral hazard in the two separate markets. The results of this study suggest that insurance status, specifically public, has a strong positive effect on healthcare expenditure. This result, combined with a negative relationship between household income and healthcare expenditure, suggests that the source …

The Real Effects Of Exchange Traded Funds, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Chengzhu Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the effects of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the real efficiency of the underlying securities. We document strong evidence that being held by ETFs increases the sensitivity of a firm's investment to its own stock price. This is consistent with the model prediction on the managerial learning channel. Higher ownership by ETFs increases the firm's stock price informativeness about systematic shocks but may decrease the informativeness about firm-specific shocks; however, the firm manager cares most and wants to learn from the stock price mainly about systematic shocks in making investment decisions as he already has precise private information …

Optimal Stackelberg Strategies For Financing A Supply Chain Through Online Peer-To-Peer Lending, Guang-Xin Gao, Zhi-Ping Fan, Xin Fang, Yun Fong Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, supply chain finance (SCF) through online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms has gained its popularity. We study an SCF system with a manufacturer selling a product to a retailer that faces uncertain demand over a single period. We assume that either the retailer or the manufacturer faces a capital constraint and must borrow capital through an online P2P lending platform. The platform determines a service rate for the loan, the manufacturer sets a wholesale price for the product, and the retailer chooses its order quantity for the product. We identify optimal Stackelberg strategies of the participants in the …

Constructing Identity Through The Lens Of Fashion: An Honors Thesis, Cara P. Doiron

Honors College

Fashion is an artistic decision that every person makes every day. Even those who say they don’t care about clothing are still portraying something about themselves to the outside world with the stylistic choices they make. This creative Honors Thesis explores the impact of fashion on self-representation, accomplished through the design and construction of a capsule wardrobe line of clothing. Due to the project’s personal and introspective nature, the intended wearer is the artist, and therefore the pieces are specifically tailored to her, rather than the straight sized garments that are typically produced in the fashion industry. This line consists …

On Central Branch/Reinsurance Risk Networks: Exact Results And Heuristics, Florin Avram, Sooie-Hoe Loke

Mathematics Faculty Scholarship

Modeling the interactions between a reinsurer and several insurers, or between a central management branch (CB) and several subsidiary business branches, or between a coalition and its members, are fascinating problems, which suggest many interesting questions. Beyond two dimensions, one cannot expect exact answers. Occasionally, reductions to one dimension or heuristic simplifications yield explicit approximations, which may be useful for getting qualitative insights. In this paper, we study two such problems: the ruin problem for a two-dimensional CB network under a new mathematical model, and the problem of valuation of two-dimensional CB networks by optimal dividends. A common thread between …

Looming Consumer Debt: A Comparison To The Great Recession, Andrew Jenks

Honors Projects

A look into the current outstanding debt in the United States and comparison to conditions prior to the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

The Relationship Between Financial Literacy, Financial Status, And Academic Success In College Students, Brian Douglas Brausch

Dissertations

As the cost of college continues to rise, an increasing number of students are relying on loans and credit cards to fund their postsecondary education. In an effort to curb student debt and increase retention and graduation rates, many universities have begun to offer financial literacy initiatives to stimulate financial knowledge and promote positive money management behaviors.

This study examines the relationship between a for-credit personal financial literacy course and student academic success and economic status. Students who took a personal finance course during their first or second year of college are compared to a random sampling of students who …

Airbnb's Effect On The Hospitality Industry, Eric A. Douglas

Student Publications

I examined the effect that Airbnb’s entrance into and disruption of the hospitality market in 2011 had on hotel room rates across the world by 2017. Hotel room rates were taken from published data tables rather than my own analysis because of an unavailability of raw hotel pricing data. Price comparisons between current Airbnb and hotel room rates were researched to see if one method of accommodation would be better than the other. Twenty-seven cities’ hotel rate averages and Airbnb entire-home prices were averaged and compared. There was a significant difference in hotel room rates between 2011 and 2017, during …

The Path To Mainstream Finance: Exploring Complementary Currencies And Interest-Free Lending, Ema Di Fruscia

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

This paper explores elements of alternative finance including complementary currencies, credit clearing systems, and Islamic Banking practices. I begin first by outlining the issues created by the mainstream western banking model, including wealth inequality, socioeconomic discrimination, environmental degradation, and the collapse of small businesses and local economies. I go on to introduce and define the concepts of complementary currencies, Local Exchange Trading Systems, and credit clearing systems; I argue that these systems challenge the popularly held perceptions that currencies and mainstream banking practices in general are immutable, given, or ideal. To support this assertion, I transition into my research findings …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 21, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The expectations of economic agents have significant impact on their decisions and are key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment. For example, if a worker believes that consumer prices will rise sharply next year, she would demand a wage increase. Similarly, a homeowner with a fixed interest mortgage might make an early repayment if she expects price levels to fall, knowing that the real value of her mortgage debt will increase. In these cases, expectations about inflation could lead to changes in behaviour and in the aggregate, influence prices and become self-fulfilling.

Estimation Of Cost Efficiency Without Cost Data, Levent Kutlu, Ran Wang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

One of the advantages of conduct parameter games is that they enable estimation of market power without total cost data. In line with this, we develop a conduct parameter based model to estimate the firm specific “marginal cost efficiency” and conduct without using total cost data. The marginal cost efficiency is an alternative measure of efficiency that is based on deadweight loss. We illustrate our methodology by estimating firm-route-quarter specific conducts and marginal cost efficiencies of U.S. airlines for Chicago based routes without using route-level total cost data.

Microfinance And The Decision To Invest In Children’S Education, P.V. Viswanath

Faculty Working Papers

Although one of the primary objectives of microfinance has been the reduction of poverty through the provision of credit for income-generating purposes, evidence of its impact on poverty has been mixed. Even if there is no direct impact of microfinance, there may be an indirect positive impact through the effect of microcredit availability on families’ decisions to invest in their children’s education. In this paper, I describe a study undertaken to gauge the impact of microcredit availability on education expenditures for children of clients of a South Indian microfinance institution. I first look at some determinants of the demand for …

Thinking Finance - The Comic Book, Dimitrios V. Siskos

Publications

Thinking financially results in the best possible outcome and establishes a secure foundation for the future as an independent man. In contrast, thinking emotionally leads to short-sighted financial decisions and usually, deep regrets. However, thinking financially is not pleasant for the people around us. This comic book presents a guy, whose dream is to become an accountant. When he finally succeeds in this, he realizes that thinking financially may be effective for his boss but it is irritating for everyone else, even for his family.

Revisiting M&M With Taxes: An Alternative Equilibrating Process, Zhichuan Li, Kenneth J. Kopecky, Timothy F. Sugrue, Alan Tucker

Business Publications

Modigliani and Miller present an equity-quantity shifting equilibrating process to achieve an optimal firm value in the presence of corporate taxes. However, in the era in which they derived their various propositions regarding the relation between a firm’s value and its capital structure, well-capitalized takeover specialists including private equity firms and sovereign funds did not exist, at least by today’s standards. In this paper we develop a simple arbitrage strategy, made viable by the presence of takeover firms, which presents an alternative equilibrating process to achieve the same optimal firm value. This alternative process is markedly different from that of …

The Modigliani-Miller Theorem At 60: The Long-Overlooked Legal Applications Of Finance’S Foundational Theorem, Michael S. Knoll

All Faculty Scholarship

2018 marks the 60th anniversary of the publication of Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller’s The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance, and the Theory of Investment. Widely hailed as the foundation of modern finance, their article, which purports to demonstrate that a firm’s value is independent of its capital structure, is little known by lawyers, including legal academics. That is unfortunate because the Modigliani-Miller capital structure irrelevancy proposition (when inverted) provides a framework that can be extremely useful to legal academics, practicing attorneys and judges.

The Impact Of The Cost Of Car Ownership On House Price Gradient In Singapore, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Amanda Ross

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the extent to which a change in the cost of car ownership affects the house price gradient with respect to distance from the central business district (CBD). Theory suggests that if the cost of car ownership increases, then people will shift towards other modes of transportation, thus reducing house prices farther away from the CBD. However, the cost of car ownership is likely to be endogenous and correlated with various unobserved factors that also contribute to a change in the house price gradient. To obtain causal effects, we exploit a unique feature of Singapore’s car registration process. …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Volume 21, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.