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A Political Model Of Monetary Policy With Application To The Real Fed Funds Rate, Tony Caporale, Kevin B. Grier
A Political Model Of Monetary Policy With Application To The Real Fed Funds Rate, Tony Caporale, Kevin B. Grier
Economics and Finance Faculty Publications
We construct an empirical model of U.S. monetary policy assuming that the Federal Reserve is an ordinary federal bureaucracy. We use the real Federal Funds rate as our policy measure and show the existence of significant executive, legislative, and bureaucratic influence on the real rate of interest from 1961 to 1996. We find that presidential party is an adequate statistical measure of executive influence and that the voting scores of the Senate Banking Committee leadership best represent legislative influence. We argue that political changes cause systematic and predictable changes in monetary policy.
The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time-Series Evidence, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan
The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time-Series Evidence, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan
Economics and Finance Faculty Publications
We estimate an ARCH-M model to analyze the relationship between the conditional standard deviation of real gross national product (GNP) and its growth rate for the period 1871-1993. We find that variability significantly increases output growth rates. In addition, impulse response functions show that the effect of variability on growth rates is dynamic. These results provide evidence in favor of Black's (1987) business cycle hypothesis.