Business Commons^™

Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro

Luciano I. de Castro

Forecasting electricity demand for future years is an essential step in resource planning. A common approach is for the system operator to predict future demand from the estimates of individual distribution companies. However, the predictions thus obtained may be of poor quality, since the reporting incentives are unclear. We propose a prediction market as a form of forecasting future demand for electricity. We describe how to implement a simple prediction market for continuous variables, using only contracts based on binary variables. We also discuss specific issues concerning the implementation of such a market.

Ideacheck: Bcg Report On The Innovation Imperative In Manufacturing, Kwanghui Lim

Kwanghui Lim

In March, the Boston Consulting Group published a report on "The Innovation Imperative in Manufacturing". The report assesses the level of competitiveness of US firms, both across different states of the US as well as in comparison to other countries. Here is my IdeaCHECK on the report: http://cite.org.au/store/viewitem.asp?idProduct=573.

Has Globalization Increased Australian Inequality?, Noel Gaston, Gulasekaran Rajaguru

Gulasekaran Rajaguru

No abstract provided.

The Outlook For U.S. – China Textile And Apparel Trade In 2009: From The Trade Policy Perspective, Sheng Lu

Sheng Lu

Despite the low ebb in trade volume, the year 2009 could be a golden opportunity for the textile and apparel industry both in the United States and China to reform and change. The U.S. textile industry at present urgently needs to figure out some new business models and explore more overseas markets to meet the challenges of lessening domestic demand. On the other hand, the task for the Chinese is to further reduce reliance on exports while absorbing the production capacity of the industry by stimulating more domestic consumption. With the economic interests between the U.S. and Chinese textile and …

On The Political Substitutability Between Tariffs And Subsidies, Daniel Brou, Michele Ruta

Daniel Brou

This paper provides a simple model that highlights the political substitutability between import tariffs and production subsidies.1 When taxes are distortionary, political pressures by domestic interest groups representing the import competing sector induce the government to set inefficiently high tariffs and subsidies. If the government commits the tariff to a lower level - for instance by signing a binding commitment in a trade agreement - interest groups demand (and in the political equilibrium obtain) a larger production subsidy. This political substitutability between tariffs and subsidies is shown to reduce social welfare.

The Apollo Fallacy And Its Effect On U.S. Energy Policy, Peter Grossman

Peter Z. Grossman

US Policy makers have made continual references to the Apollo Program as a model for development of alternative energy technologies. This model, however, is inappropriate for energy policy, and its use is termed the Apollo fallacy. The goal of the Apollo Program was the demonstration of engineering prowess while any alternative energy technology must succeed in the marketplace. Several Apollo-like energy programs have been tried and all have failed at high cost. It is argued that the use of Apollo has political benefits but that it is detrimental to the adoption of potentially effective energy policies. Note: Link is to …

Should Genes Be Patented - Introduction To The Ipria&Cite Public Event, Kwanghui Lim

Kwanghui Lim

No abstract provided.

Racing To Success By Identifying Key Performance Drivers, Kathy Paulson Gjerde, S. Hughes

Kathy A. Paulson Gjerde