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Credit Market Innovations And Gross Domestic Income, Ellis Heath

Southern University College of Business E-Journal

In this paper I compare the effects of different credit variables on real output in the US. However, instead of using real Gross Domestic Product as a proxy for real output, I use real Gross Domestic Income. I use a VAR framework with generalized impulse response functions and generalized variance decompositions. I look at a credit aggregate and different credit spreads. I find that shocks to some credit variables can have significant effects on real output; the reaction, however, is a temporary one. Specifically, measures of the risk premium and the term premium have the most importance in explaining innovations …