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An Extension Of The Theory Of Technology Dominance: Capturing The Underlying Causal Complexity, Steve G. Sutton, Vicky Arnold, Matthew Holt
An Extension Of The Theory Of Technology Dominance: Capturing The Underlying Causal Complexity, Steve G. Sutton, Vicky Arnold, Matthew Holt
Accounting Faculty Publications
The Theory of Technology Dominance (TTD) provides a theoretical foundation for understanding how intelligent systems impact human decision-making. The theory has three phases with propositions related to (1) the foundations of reliance, (2) short-term effects on novice versus expert decision-making, and (3) long-term epistemological effects related to individual deskilling and profession-wide stagnation. In this theory paper, we propose an extension of TTD, that we refer to as TTD2, primarily to increase our theoretical understanding of how, why, and when the short-term and long-term effects on decision-making occur and why advances in technology design have exacerbated some weaknesses and eroded some …
Insights Into The Accuracy Of Social Scientists’ Forecasts Of Societal Change, Sangsuk Yoon
Insights Into The Accuracy Of Social Scientists’ Forecasts Of Societal Change, Sangsuk Yoon
Management and Marketing Faculty Publications
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament …