Business Commons^™

Do Fas Large Export Sales Reports Move Commodity Futures Markets?, William Johnson

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This study sought to determine if the Large Export Reports from the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service have any discernible market-moving impact on particular commodity futures markets. The effect of the reports on futures markets is investigated using four different methods: the average return event study approach, the multiple regression with binary variables model, the autoregressive time series model, and the event spline model. The average returns showed that the FAS's Large Export Sales Reports had no influence on the pricing of wheat futures, but did have a considerable impact on the returns from days before and after the release of …