Construction Engineering Commons^™

Lifecycle Energy Consumption Prediction Of Residential Buildings By Incorporating Longitudinal Uncertainties, Endong Wang, Zhigang Shen

Durham School of Architectural Engineering and Construction: Faculty Publications

Accurate prediction of buildings’ lifecycle energy consumption is a critical part in lifecycle assessment of residential buildings. Longitudinal variations in building conditions, weather conditions and building’s service life can cause significant deviation of the prediction from the real lifecycle energy consumption. The objective is to improve the accuracy of lifecycle energy consumption prediction by properly modelling the longitudinal variations in residential energy consumption model using Markov chain based stochastic approach. A stochastic Markov model considering longitudinal uncertainties in building condition, degree days, and service life is developed: 1) Building’s service life is estimated through Markov deterioration curve derived from actual …