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Cmsi Translations #36: The First Joint Underwater Patrol: Starting With The China-Russia "Joint Sea-2025" Exercise, Guan Hai

CMSI Translations

In August of this year (2025), deep within the waters of the Northwestern Pacific, an underwater patrol was reshaping the strategic landscape of the Asia-Pacific. The Russian submarine Volkhov and the Chinese Navy’s submarine Changcheng 210 came together in a joint formation for the first time, traversing the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea to complete a joint underwater patrol spanning more than 2,000 nautical miles.

The joint underwater patrol conducted by Chinese and Russian submarine formations represents a new form of joint maritime patrol for the two navies, following their joint surface ship patrols. This move not …

Algorithms In Battle: Ai, International Relations, And Future Warfare, Nikos Koutsoupias, Kyriakos Mikelis, Marios Nosios

Journal of Strategic Security

This study examines the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in transforming contemporary warfare, with a particular emphasis on its applications in unmanned aerial platforms, sensor networks, and decision-support architectures. The analysis examines current operational uses, the algorithmic processes that enable them, and empirical insights drawn from the Russian-Ukrainian War. Findings indicate that machine learning enhances key military functions, including surveillance, navigation, targeting, fire coordination, and maintaining communication networks under conditions of electronic disruption. The emergence of loitering munitions and autonomous navigation systems reflects a pattern of incremental innovation, wherein automation augments operational efficiency without displacing human authority in decisions involving …

From The Editor In Chief, C. Anthony Pfaff

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Russia’S Attritional Theory Of Victory In Ukraine, Tewfik Hamel

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Innovation And Adaptation: Lessons From The Russia-Ukraine War, 2024, Stephan Bolton, John A. Nagl

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The third year of the Russia-Ukraine War was marked by inconclusive counterattacks and minimal territorial gains despite a loss of life and materiel, mostly on the Russian side, greater than any witnessed in Europe since World War II. The most important lessons for US forces from this year of the war are the impact and promise of emerging, multi-use technology on war-fighting functions and domains. Perhaps most notably, each year of this war has further reinforced principles of mission command, either by their observance or omission.

Parameters Autumn 2026, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Summit Report: Nuclear Deterrence In An Uncertain World, Manolis Priniotakis

GNSI Summit Reports

The Global and National Security Institute’s Tampa Summit 6 took place on March 24-25, 2026, and examined a nuclear weapons environment marked by renewed uncertainty, weakened institutions, and rapid strategic change. General (Ret.) Frank McKenzie’s opening keynote framed the central challenge: The nuclear age never ended, but the United States and its allies spent much of the post-Cold War period looking away at other threats while Russia, China, North Korea, and others adapted. The world is now moving from the longstanding and relatively stable “two-body” nuclear order centered on the United States and Russia toward a far more complex “three-body” …

Academic Year 2026–27 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment, Us Army War College

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The Academic Year 2026–27 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of War’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 10 sections organized under the broad themes of 1) Regional Challenges and Opportunities and 2) Institutional Challenges. This assessment represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 105 command-sponsored questions from 47 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of War. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question …

Youtube As A Tool For Digital Diplomacy And Strategic Security: A Comparative Analysis Of Russia And Kazakhstan, Bekzat Baktybekovna Baktybekova, Elmira Kagazbaeva, Botagoz Ali

Journal of Strategic Security

In the context of growing competition in the information space, digital diplomacy is gaining key importance for the strategic security of states. This study analyzes how Russia and Kazakhstan use the YouTube platform to promote their foreign policy narratives, shape the image of the state, and strengthen digital sovereignty. Based on a qualitative analysis of 60 videos (30 for each country) published by official government channels between 2020 and 2024, differences in strategies, visual codes, tonality, and patterns of interaction with the audience were identified. The Russian approach is characterized by an aggressive narrative, antagonism to Western structures, and a …

The Offense-Defense Balance And The Modern System In Ukraine, Daniel Hogestyn

Master in Public Policy Theses

This thesis evaluates whether the Russo Ukrainian war represents a revolution in military affairs (RMA) by testing Stephen Biddle’s "modern system" theory of battlefield outcomes against recent combat operations. Applying Biddle’s formal model to the 2023 Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhia, the thesis finds that the offensive's failure conforms closely to Biddle’s causal logic, with force employment variables drawn from 20th century combat sufficient to account for the outcome. Biddle's model in military power argues that force employment has explained victory and defeat since World War I, rather than technology or numerical preponderance alone. Many commentators claim that proliferation of small …

The Use Of Cognitive Biases In Russian Cyber Operations, Emma Manning

Honors Theses

This thesis examines how Russia has employed reflexive control through cyber operations to influence decision-making in foreign states, focusing on disinformation campaigns during the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Reflexive control, a concept rooted in Russian military doctrine, seeks to shape an adversary's perceptions and decision-making by providing carefully crafted information that leads targets to make choices favorable to the initiator. This research argues that while the fundamental objectives of reflexive control have remained consistent, technological advances have significantly expanded Russia's ability to conduct operations in developing cyber domains.

Using qualitative analysis of open-source intelligence, …

Manufacturing Collapse: American Power And The Dissolution Of The Federal Republic Of Yugoslavia, Jonah Michael Hillmann

Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2020 - Present

This thesis argues that the United States systematically worked to destabilize the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and initiate regime change through economic sanctions, propaganda campaigns, funding of political opposition movements, and the facilitation of NATO bombing campaigns. Through an examination of recently declassified U.S. government documents, National Security Council briefings, and diplomatic correspondence, a more complicated reality of U.S. involvement in Yugoslavia emerges. Evidence reveals that the Clinton Administration leveraged the real humanitarian crisis in Kosovo to advance post-Cold War strategic interests, particularly the political and economic unification of Europe under NATO. Organized into three thematic chapters: Militaristic Involvement, Economic …

The Necessity Of U.S. Aid: The Russian-Ukrainian War, Lelin Spriggs

The Dialogue

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the conflict has emerged as a defining foreign-policy challenge of the twenty-first century. In the United States, the war dominates political discourse and continues to shape debates on national security and the appropriate scope of American global leadership. Although President Trump vowed during his campaign to end the war upon entering office, hostilities intensified following his inauguration, prompting renewed policy debates regarding the future and extent of U.S. military and economic support for Kyiv.

This paper argues that the United States must continue providing sustained military and economic …

A National Security Strategy For The Middle East, Vanessa Rice, Rudy Torres, Addy Horgan, Joy Omosa, Mark Westfall

School of Public Policy Capstones

This National Security Strategy addresses the persistent national security challenges the United States faces in the Middle East, a region vital for global energy supply, economic connectivity, and a source of anti-American extremism. Recognizing the failures of past "haphazard experimentation," the strategy proposes a thoughtful, pragmatic plan prioritizing five distinct and congruent interest areas: Maintaining Regional Access, Supporting Regional Stability, Ensuring Energy Security, Defending American Citizens and Personnel, and Preserving and Protecting Western Ideals. The strategy outlines actions such as: countering Chinese and Russian influence through intelligence sharing and defense incentives; containing Iran via a new, permanent nuclear deal and …

Conscripts, Convicts, And Contractors: Ersatz Soldiers And Russia's Total Mobilization Workarounds, Tad A. Schnaufer Ii, Guido Rossi

Journal of Strategic Security

The large-scale conventional conflict in Ukraine has absorbed hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides. Yet, domestic considerations have limited mobilization of citizens into the military at the devastating cost of prolonging the conflict. The 2022 Russian invasion force should have comprised far more personnel to ensure success at the outset. Russian leadership grossly underestimated the Ukrainian will to resist and vastly overestimated its own capabilities. Once the initial attack failed, both Russia and Ukraine only incrementally mobilized their populations, leaving neither side with overwhelming strength to create a breakthrough that would end the war. Hence, the ongoing slog …

Post-Ukraine Fallout: How Azerbaijan’S Break With Russia Reflects The Strategic Consequences Of A Weakened Kremlin, Hasan Alisoy

Journal of Strategic Security

This article analyzes how Russia’s declining power, accelerated by its military overextension in Ukraine, triggered a historic rupture in Russia–Azerbaijan relations, culminating in the 2025 Yekaterinburg incident. It argues that the deaths of two Azerbaijani citizens in Russian custody—and the retaliatory actions taken by Baku—did not cause the diplomatic collapse, but rather crystallized a long-term realignment rooted in Azerbaijan’s post-conflict assertiveness and Russia’s unraveling regional leverage. Drawing on the 2024 downing of an Azerbaijani airliner by a Russian missile, the premature withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh, and Azerbaijan’s evolving alliance with Türkiye, the article positions this realignment within a …

Sun-Tzuian Critique Of The Russian Strategy In Its War Against Ukraine, Eduard Vicuna

Mabini Review

This study examines the effectiveness of Russian military strategy in the Ukraine war through the lens of Sun-Tzu’s strategic philosophy. Grounded in Sun-Tzu’s principles of warfare, the study evaluates Russian strategy using five key elements: Leader Values, People’s Belief, Mitigation, Environment, and Information. Employing a qualitative methodology, the research analyzes military decisions and tactics based on these strategic dimensions. Findings indicate that while Russia initially relied on deception and overwhelming force, its failure to achieve a swift victory stemmed from flawed planning, underestimated Ukrainian resistance, and logistical challenges. The study highlights the critical role of intelligence, adaptability, and psychological warfare, …

A New Great Game?: Great Powers Content Re-Sharing And Media Influence In The South Caucasus, Emma A. Lowery

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In the new digital era of geopolitics, competing great powers support internationally oriented state-sponsored media as integral parts of public diplomacy, seeking to reach foreign publics in an increasingly digital age of information sharing. Leveraging local outlets provides an avenue to influence local publics through pre-approved news. Targeted foreign news outlets actively engage with and re-share content from said media. This research focuses on foreign-originated content from the world’s great powers - the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America. The purpose of this project is to provide insight into how the great powers …

Gnsi Decision Brief: The Three-Body Trap: The New Geometry Of Nuclear Deterrence, Seong-Hyon Lee

GNSI Decision Briefs

In the astrophysics of orbital mechanics, the “Two-Body Problem” – predicting the gravitational interaction between two objects, such as the Earth and the Moon – is mathematically solvable. The system is stable, the orbits are predictable, and the variables are calculable. However, if a third independent object of sufficient mass is introduced, the system becomes non-linear and highly unpredictable. As proven by mathematician Henri Poincaré in 1887, no single formula can solve for long-term stability in a three-body system. For eight decades, since the dawn of the nuclear age, global security operated on “Two-Body” physics. The United States and the …

The Sources Of Russian Aggression: Is Russia A Realist Power?, James Kraska, Sumantra Maitra

Naval War College Review

No abstract provided.

Russia's Information Warfare In Africa: Influence Operations In The Sahel, Stanislav Vasyliuk

Journal of Strategic Security

In the new era of technology and digitalization, the internet has become a new battleground where states are able to exercise their power and employ various tools to achieve foreign policy objectives. While this creates a possibility to improve the communication between the public and the government, it also opens a door for bad actors to pursue their agenda through fake news and disinformation. Russia has long been at the forefront of utilizing both in-person and digital spaces for propaganda efforts. The Sahel region of Africa presents possibly one of the most successful stories in the Kremlin’s recent track record. …

Seamless Security: Reforming Export Controls For A Stronger Allied Defense Industrial Base, Justin Belcher

San Diego International Law Journal

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s accelerating military modernization underscore the need for the United States and its allies to reinforce their defense industrial bases to deter and prevail in future conflicts. This paper examines the historical and strategic foundations driving the need for export control reform, identifies key U.S. export control laws governing defense coproduction and co-development, and analyzes how current regulations constrain allied industrial integration. It concludes by proposing solutions to streamline export control regulations to improve the strength and resilience of the modern defense industrial base.

Security In The Arctic: The Decline Of Arctic Exceptionalism? Between Cooperation And Militarization, Victoria Berg Hagen

Theses and Dissertations

The Arctic has been understood as a region separated from international relations, where states choose to collaborate and maintain stability (Gjørv et al. 2020: 2). This has led to the creation of the concept of “Arctic Exceptionalism” (Heininen 2019: 226). Currently, the Arctic is becoming strategically important. Furthermore, the region is witnessing militarization and increased international tensions affecting the Arctic states (Padrtova 2020: 38). This thesis analyzes how Arctic exceptionalism, as reflected in bilateral relations (specifically Russia-Finland and Russia-Norway), has been impacted by the Donbas War, the invasion of Ukraine, and militarization in the Arctic by both NATO and Russia. …

Coordinated Management Of Meaning In U.S.-Russia Relations: How Meanings Shaped Communication Surrounding The Potential Invasion Of Ukraine, Russell James Hampsey

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

This qualitative discourse analysis applies the coordinated management of meaning theory to examine the diplomatic interactions between the United States and Russia from November 2021 to February 2022, the critical negotiation period preceding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Systematically applying the theory’s hierarchy of meanings model to the official discourse resulted in the segmentation of 1,428 official texts for analysis. Comparative coding of the data exposes how worldviews and recursive feedback patterns shape adversarial postures, perpetuate negotiation impasses, and prevent the emergence of co-constructed meaning. This research illuminates how national meanings are actively constructed and maintained through discursive interaction, reinforcing …

A Long, Hard Year: Russia-Ukraine War Lessons Learned 2023, John A. Nagl, Michael T. Hackett

Integrated Research Projects

Following the 2024 A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force, which explored military lessons learned from the first year of the Russia-Ukraine War, this book examines the changing character of war as the second year of the war unfolded. This year’s authors explore the conflict from four different angles: information advantage (intelligence, information operations, and cyber); landpower operations (fires, maneuver, force protection, mission command, and mercenaries); multi-domain operations (air and maritime); and crosscutting themes (diplomacy, sustainment, and innovation and adaptation). The second year witnessed the innovative approaches to combat of the first year—drones, unmanned aerial …

The Balance Of Power In Ukraine And Deterrence Effectivenes Against Nuclear-Armed Russia, Chick Edmond

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised several significant questions regarding the impact of deterrence, the European balance of power and the ability of current security frameworks to restrict the actions of nuclear-armed revisionist powers. This paper uses an integrated theoretical framework consisting of deterrence theory, the balance of power theory, the security dilemma and neorealism to analyze the dynamic relationships between Russia, Ukraine and the Western alliance. The primary contribution of the paper is to develop a comprehensive analytical framework to evaluate the relationship between different aspects of deterrence (i.e., to prevent an initial attack, to limit further escalation and …

Nato's Evolution And European Security Dynamics, Chick Edmond

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has transformed dramatically since the end of the Cold War. As a collective defense alliance, it was primarily focused on defending itself against the Soviet Union. NATO is now focused on addressing multiple types of threats: traditional, hybrid, and non-traditional. This study uses a qualitative methodological approach that includes a systematic content review of NATO’s Strategic Concepts from to 1991–2022; NATO Summit Communiques; NATO Defense Planning Guidance and Elite Speeches. This allows us to analyse the causes and effects of NATO’s transformation over time. Our results suggest that because of Russia’s actions as a …

Security Implications Of The China-Russia-North Korea Triangle, Brian G. Carlson

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article analyzes the evolving strategic dynamics within the China-Russia-North Korea triangle and their implications for global security. It argues that while the strengthened Russia–North Korea relationship poses risks for China’s global strategy and its major economic partnerships, for now, China also derives some benefits from these close ties and considers the risks to be manageable. Drawing on recent diplomatic developments, military cooperation, and regional responses, the article offers a nuanced assessment of how this alignment affects European and Indo-Pacific theaters. The analysis provides US policymakers with insight into the risks of opportunistic aggression and the strategic calculations driving these …

Russian Cyber Disinformation In Mexico And Spain, Isabella Lafranchise

Honors Theses

Disinformation campaigns are being spread throughout Mexico and Spain by Russia, and these campaigns are among the tools most used by a foreign country to manipulate societies, weaken democracies, and deepen divisions. This research seeks to answer the question: How does Russia use cyber tools to spread disinformation in Mexico and Spain? To address this question, the paper will examine government reports and academic research of recent Russian influence operations. Variables will include the types of cyber tools used, platforms used, the narratives/themes being promoted, audiences targeted, and the political or social outcomes observed. Data will be analyzed using a …

Networks For Survival: North Korea’S Systematic Evasion Of International Sanctions, Kaeli Rasnake

Senior Honors Theses

This paper aims to address the evolution and methodologies of North Korea’s sanction evasion tactics. The nation’s ability to maintain its economy sustains its capacity to pose a threat to the United States and its allies. This paper has identified four major networks that North Korea utilizes to survive, which include sanctions evasion tactics, partnerships with China, Russia, and the Developing World. The study utilizes a qualitative research methodology to analyze and assess the behaviors and interactions at play. This paper concludes that foreign policy towards North Korea centered on sanctions is not enough, as North Korea has proven it …