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Conference

2010

Land use change

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Mapping, Modelling And Managing Ecosystems Services In New Zealand, Daniel T. Rutledge, John Dymond, Suzie Greenhalgh, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, Robyn Sinclair, Alexander Herzig, Fraser Morgan, Robbie Andrew, Alison Collins Jul 2010

Mapping, Modelling And Managing Ecosystems Services In New Zealand, Daniel T. Rutledge, John Dymond, Suzie Greenhalgh, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, Robyn Sinclair, Alexander Herzig, Fraser Morgan, Robbie Andrew, Alison Collins

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Central and local government agencies in New Zealand are calling for a paradigm shift in natural resource management. A unified approach is required to deliver a wide range of services and outcomes in a sustainable manner. Our new, 4-year research project aims to provide the scientific basis for such an approach. We are taking a threephase approach. First, we will characterize, classify and quantitatively map past and current state of a comprehensive suite of ecosystem services nationally. We will use a tiered approach that reflects the level of knowledge available about various services. Second, we will explore how future changes …


Mr Potatohead Framework – A Software Tool For Collaborative Land-Use Change Modeling, Mike Livermore Jul 2010

Mr Potatohead Framework – A Software Tool For Collaborative Land-Use Change Modeling, Mike Livermore

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agent-based land-use cover/change models (ABM/LUCC), which can be used for various types of complex human-environment interactions, recently have been gaining popularity. ABM/LUCC models combine a spatial representation of the landscape with key decision-makers (e.g. farmers and institutions) and an environment for interaction. There is inherent complexity in modeling human-environment interactions which need to be assessed at multiple spatial and time scales, and often multiple models are integrated; however, current methods of developing integrated models are often cumbersome and communicating design and results can be a great challenge and would be aided by a common framework in which different models can …


Modeling The Adaptation Of Land-Use Decisions To Landscape Changes Using An Agent-Based System: A Case Study In A Mountainous Catchment In Central Vietnam, Quang Bao Le, Roman Seidl, Roland W. Scholz Jul 2010

Modeling The Adaptation Of Land-Use Decisions To Landscape Changes Using An Agent-Based System: A Case Study In A Mountainous Catchment In Central Vietnam, Quang Bao Le, Roman Seidl, Roland W. Scholz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A key challenge of land-use modeling for supporting sustainable land management is to understand how environmental feedbacks emerged from land-use actions can reshape land-use decisions in the long-term. To investigate that issue, we use an agentbased land-use change model (LUDAS) developed by Le et al. [2008] based on a case study that was carried out in Hongha watershed (Vietnam). In LUDAS, goal-directed landuse decisions by household agents are explicitly modeled (i.e. agents calculate utilities for all land-use and location alternatives and likely select the alternative with highest utility). The model is run for two mechanisms of adaptation in land-use decisions …


Multi-Scale Modelling Of Ecosystem Services – An Iterative Approach, M. S. Castellazzi, I. Brown, L. Poggio, Alessandro Gimona Jul 2010

Multi-Scale Modelling Of Ecosystem Services – An Iterative Approach, M. S. Castellazzi, I. Brown, L. Poggio, Alessandro Gimona

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Ecosystems are dependent upon the interactions between the natural environment and human factors. Each different ecosystem service is also associated with varying spatial scales related to their functioning and human benefits. Thus, key requirements for an ecosystem-based approach (EBA) are i) multiple scales, especially landscape scale, ii) flexible method for adaptive response and iii) stakeholders participation. Understanding complex inter-relationships between ecosystem functions and their services requires tools to handle change and uncertainty, notably scenarios and sensitivity analysis. We propose an iterative approach, which is multi-scale and userfocused based upon the LandSFACTS toolkit to generate a suite of land use change …


Evaluating Ecosystem Services Of Afforestation On Erosion-Prone Land: A Case Study In The Manawatu Catchment, New Zealand, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, John Dymond Jul 2010

Evaluating Ecosystem Services Of Afforestation On Erosion-Prone Land: A Case Study In The Manawatu Catchment, New Zealand, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, John Dymond

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Land-use change from pasture to forestry can have multiple effects on the environment. In this project, we assessed the impacts of afforestation on erosion-prone land on several ecosystem services in the Manawatu catchment, New Zealand. For 500 high priority farms requiring soil conservation, the land mapped as highly erodible was assumed to be afforested, with two distinct scenarios: conversion of pasture into pine forest or indigenous shrubland. Several models were used to quantify indicators of different ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, non-CO2 gas emission, sediment yield, nitrate export, natural habitat provision, and water yield. The results showed that the pine …


The Fate Of Devils Lake: An Interwoven Aftermath Of Agriculture And Climate Change, Xiaodong Zhang Jul 2010

The Fate Of Devils Lake: An Interwoven Aftermath Of Agriculture And Climate Change, Xiaodong Zhang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A dry period in the mid-20th century caused the lake area to become greatlyreduced, allowing people to build and begin farming on the floodplain. Since 1993, DevilsLake has risen a dramatic 8.5 m in elevation to 442 m, flooding both residential andagricultural zones in the surrounding area. Rising another 3 feet to an elevation of 445 m,the lake would overspill. To date, $1 billion in federal, state and local funds have beenspent to help mitigate flooding in the Devils Lake basin. It will cost several hundreds ofmillions if protection of overspill is needed. Some communities, displaced families andbusinesses have lost …


Mapping, Modelling And Managing Ecosystems Services In New Zealand, Daniel T. Rutledge, John Dymond, Suzie Greenhalgh, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, Robyn Sinclair, Alexander Herzig, Fraser Morgan, Robbie Andrew, Alison Collins Jul 2010

Mapping, Modelling And Managing Ecosystems Services In New Zealand, Daniel T. Rutledge, John Dymond, Suzie Greenhalgh, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, Robyn Sinclair, Alexander Herzig, Fraser Morgan, Robbie Andrew, Alison Collins

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Central and local government agencies in New Zealand are calling for a paradigm shift in natural resource management. A unified approach is required to deliver a wide range of services and outcomes in a sustainable manner. Our new, 4-year research project aims to provide the scientific basis for such an approach. We are taking a threephase approach. First, we will characterize, classify and quantitatively map past and current state of a comprehensive suite of ecosystem services nationally. We will use a tiered approach that reflects the level of knowledge available about various services. Second, we will explore how future changes …


Modeling The Adaptation Of Land-Use Decisions To Landscape Changes Using An Agent-Based System: A Case Study In A Mountainous Catchment In Central Vietnam, Quang Bao Le, Roman Seidl, Roland W. Scholz Jul 2010

Modeling The Adaptation Of Land-Use Decisions To Landscape Changes Using An Agent-Based System: A Case Study In A Mountainous Catchment In Central Vietnam, Quang Bao Le, Roman Seidl, Roland W. Scholz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A key challenge of land-use modeling for supporting sustainable land management is to understand how environmental feedbacks emerged from land-use actions can reshape land-use decisions in the long-term. To investigate that issue, we use an agentbased land-use change model (LUDAS) developed by Le et al. [2008] based on a case study that was carried out in Hongha watershed (Vietnam). In LUDAS, goal-directed landuse decisions by household agents are explicitly modeled (i.e. agents calculate utilities for all land-use and location alternatives and likely select the alternative with highest utility). The model is run for two mechanisms of adaptation in land-use decisions …


Mr Potatohead Framework – A Software Tool For Collaborative Land-Use Change Modeling, Mike Livermore Jul 2010

Mr Potatohead Framework – A Software Tool For Collaborative Land-Use Change Modeling, Mike Livermore

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agent-based land-use cover/change models (ABM/LUCC), which can be used for various types of complex human-environment interactions, recently have been gaining popularity. ABM/LUCC models combine a spatial representation of the landscape with key decision-makers (e.g. farmers and institutions) and an environment for interaction. There is inherent complexity in modeling human-environment interactions which need to be assessed at multiple spatial and time scales, and often multiple models are integrated; however, current methods of developing integrated models are often cumbersome and communicating design and results can be a great challenge and would be aided by a common framework in which different models can …


Multi-Scale Modelling Of Ecosystem Services – An Iterative Approach, M. S. Castellazzi, I. Brown, L. Poggio, Alessandro Gimona Jul 2010

Multi-Scale Modelling Of Ecosystem Services – An Iterative Approach, M. S. Castellazzi, I. Brown, L. Poggio, Alessandro Gimona

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Ecosystems are dependent upon the interactions between the natural environment and human factors. Each different ecosystem service is also associated with varying spatial scales related to their functioning and human benefits. Thus, key requirements for an ecosystem-based approach (EBA) are i) multiple scales, especially landscape scale, ii) flexible method for adaptive response and iii) stakeholders participation. Understanding complex inter-relationships between ecosystem functions and their services requires tools to handle change and uncertainty, notably scenarios and sensitivity analysis. We propose an iterative approach, which is multi-scale and userfocused based upon the LandSFACTS toolkit to generate a suite of land use change …


Evaluating Ecosystem Services Of Afforestation On Erosion-Prone Land: A Case Study In The Manawatu Catchment, New Zealand, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, John Dymond Jul 2010

Evaluating Ecosystem Services Of Afforestation On Erosion-Prone Land: A Case Study In The Manawatu Catchment, New Zealand, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil, John Dymond

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Land-use change from pasture to forestry can have multiple effects on the environment. In this project, we assessed the impacts of afforestation on erosion-prone land on several ecosystem services in the Manawatu catchment, New Zealand. For 500 high priority farms requiring soil conservation, the land mapped as highly erodible was assumed to be afforested, with two distinct scenarios: conversion of pasture into pine forest or indigenous shrubland. Several models were used to quantify indicators of different ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, non-CO2 gas emission, sediment yield, nitrate export, natural habitat provision, and water yield. The results showed that the pine …


The Fate Of Devils Lake: An Interwoven Aftermath Of Agriculture And Climate Change, Xiaodong Zhang Jul 2010

The Fate Of Devils Lake: An Interwoven Aftermath Of Agriculture And Climate Change, Xiaodong Zhang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A dry period in the mid-20th century caused the lake area to become greatlyreduced, allowing people to build and begin farming on the floodplain. Since 1993, DevilsLake has risen a dramatic 8.5 m in elevation to 442 m, flooding both residential andagricultural zones in the surrounding area. Rising another 3 feet to an elevation of 445 m,the lake would overspill. To date, $1 billion in federal, state and local funds have beenspent to help mitigate flooding in the Devils Lake basin. It will cost several hundreds ofmillions if protection of overspill is needed. Some communities, displaced families andbusinesses have lost …