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Out-Of-Pocket Health Spending And Household Impoverishment In Tanzania Using The 2020/21 National Panel Survey, John Geofrey Massito Dr, Hinju John Gabriel Dr

Tanzanian Economic Review

Out-of-pocket health spending (OOPHS) can convert healthcare needs into financial hardship, particularly where risk-pooling mechanisms are limited. Evidence on its direct contribution to household impoverishment in Tanzania remains limited. This study estimates the impoverishing effect of OOPHS and examines the factors associated with household exposure to healthcare payments. We analysed nationally representative data from the 2020/21 Tanzania National Panel Survey. Household welfare was assessed before and after OOPHS using the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke poverty framework. Changes in the poverty headcount, poverty gap and poverty severinty were used to identify poverty entry and poverty deepening. Determinants of OOPHS were estimated using a two-part …

Relative Effectiveness Of Exchange Rate Targeting, Monetary Targeting And Inflation Targeting Frameworks In Sub-Saharan Africa, Joyce Gervas, John Mtui Dr, Jehovaness Aikaeli

Tanzanian Economic Review

In recent years, many central banks around the world have shifted from frameworks such as monetary targeting and exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting to achieve price stability and enhance central bank credibility. The same pattern has been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the number of inflation-targeting countries has increased from 1 in 2000 to 5 in 2022, as countries continue to exit other frameworks, especially the monetary targeting regime. However, there is an ongoing debate in SSA regarding which monetary policy framework is most effective in achieving macroeconomic stability and promoting long-term growth. Following that, this study investigated …

Development Finance Flows Under Monetary Policy Tightening: The Nigerian Experience 1981-2023, Hilary Temofeh Kanwanye Ph.D

Tanzanian Economic Review

This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy tightening on external development finance flows in Nigeria, focusing on foreign direct investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA), and remittances over 1981–2023. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach, the study examines short-run and long-run dynamics between monetary policy instruments (monetary policy rate, cash reserve ratio, liquidity ratio, and broad money supply) and development finance inflows, controlling for inflation and GDP growth. Results reveal striking asymmetries. FDI is sensitive to liquidity constraints, with the cash reserve ratio exerting a weak negative effect, while money supply expansion enhances investor confidence. ODA responds positively to …

Exploring Tourism Business Voices In Navigating Pandemic Crisis And Resilience-Building, Godwin Adiel A. Lema

Tanzanian Economic Review

COVID-19 challenged mobility, redefining crisis navigation and resilience. A modified Challenge Metamorphosis Model (CMM) is proposed to understand crisis navigating process in tourism business resilience-building. A pragmatic mixed-method design, involving 158 tourism-business respondents, multiple regions, interviews, and observation during June–November 2020, was applied. Impacts, challenges, opportunities, varied business responses and outcomes were mirrored. Immediate reactive closure and booking cancellation responses were distinguished from proactive adaptive business continuity measures with low visitors, postponement, few bookings and negotiable employment flexibility. Health, safety, and culturally embedded coping practices and their reinvention aided crisis navigation. Medium-term crisis navigating strategies were differentiated from long-term resilience-building …

The Effects Of Household Shocks On Women’S Self-Reported Health In Tanzania, Yoeni Silas Kaniki, Wilhelm Michael Ngasamiaku, Innocent Muganyizi Pantaleo

Tanzanian Economic Review

Household shocks are among the factors that deteriorate women's self-reported health (SRH). Accordingly, we analyse the effects of household shocks on women’s self-reported health using a sample of 4,958 women aged 18 years and above from waves 4 (2014/2015) and 5 (2020/2021) of the Tanzania National Panel Survey. We employ a correlated random-effects (CRE) ordered probit model to control for unobserved heterogeneity in an ordered outcome. We find that aggregate shocks increase the likelihood of reporting poor health by 0.6 percentage points while simultaneously reducing the probability of reporting better health by 1.9 percentage points. Moreover, women experiencing economic shocks …

Firm Level Labour Productivity Drivers And Export Status In Tanzania, Mgeni E. Msafiri, Vincent Leyaro, Rosemary Taylor

Tanzanian Economic Review

This study analysed the drivers of firm-level labour productivity by export status and estimated the counterfactual gains from exporting. Using the 2022 nationally representative Tanzania Enterprise Survey and an endogenous switching regression model, results revealed significant differences in the drivers of labour productivity between exporting and non-exporting firms. The productivity of exporting firms was positively associated with business linkages with small and medium-sized enterprises, foreign ownership, access to finance, and capital intensity. Similar factors were associated with labour productivity among non-exporting firms, alongside linkages with large firms. However, access to finance had asymmetric patterns: exporting firms benefited from greater financial …

Cash Transfer For Orphans And Vulnerable Children And Households’ Vulnerability To Poverty In Kenya: Evidence From Panel Data, Molly Owino-Owiti, Damiano Kulundu Manda, Samuel Misati Nyandemo

Tanzanian Economic Review

This study examined the effect of the Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) programme on vulnerability to poverty of households that had experienced a health shock in Kenya. The study used a three-wave panel data set for Kenya, collected in 2007, 2009, and 2011. A Fixed Effects model was used in the estimation. The study found that CT-OVC can reduce households’ Vulnerability to Asset Poverty (VAP) by 6.7 percent and Vulnerability to Food Poverty (VFP) by 33.8 percent. The VAP did not decline as much as VFP, indicating that the transfer may not be sufficient to reduce several …

Mobile Money And Economic Wellbeing In Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence From The 2021 Global Findex Survey, Emanuel Sulle Joseph, Martin Chegere, Kenneth Mdadila

Tanzanian Economic Review

Mobile money has expanded rapidly across Sub-Saharan Africa, accompanied by increasing mobile phone ownership and a growing number of registered users. Despite this, there is a concern about its effects on well-being. It has been argued that mobile money favoured those who were already financially included and financially stable. Therefore, the study used the Global Findex 2021 database, with a sample of 22686 respondents, to analyse the effects of mobile money on well-being and disaggregated the results by sex and location. The study employed binary probit regression and the results indicated that mobile phone ownership is not significantly associated with …

The Central Bank Supervision Stringency On Bank Stability, Sara Eliufoo, Judika King'ori

Tanzanian Economic Review

This study examines the relationship between central bank supervision stringency and bank stability in Tanzania, focusing on 45 licensed banks. Specifically, it assesses the influence of regulatory capital stringency, loan loss provisioning stringency, and loan diversification stringency on bank stability. Guided by Agency Theory and Credit Risk Management Theory, the study adopts a quantitative research design. Primary data were collected using structured questionnaires administered to 225 bank employees, including credit, finance, internal audit, risk, compliance, and human resource officers. Data were analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) via SmartPLS 4.0. Rigorous data screening addressed missing values, outliers, and measurement errors. …

Is Uganda’S Trade Complementary With Its Eac Partners?, Aaron Ecel, Timothy Esemu, Matthias S. Mulumba, Jimmy O. Otim

Tanzanian Economic Review

This study evaluates the extent to which Uganda’s export profile aligns with the import needs of its East African Community partner states, with the aim of identifying opportunities for enhanced regional trade. Using sectoral trade data from the International Trade Centre and UN Comtrade, the study applies the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) and Trade Intensity Index (TII) to analyze Uganda’s trade flows with EAC partners between 2013 and 2023. The results show that Uganda’s trade complementarity with EAC partners remains generally low across several key sectors, including prepared foodstuffs and chemicals, despite significant regional demand and preferential market access. Trade …

External Debt And Economic Growth In Sub-Saharan African Hipcs: Linear And Nonlinear Dynamics, Swaliki Kisige Isabirye, John Mutenyo, Oryema John Bosco

Tanzanian Economic Review

Abstract

Economic growth in Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) in Sub-Saharan Africa remains heavily influenced by external financing conditions, making the role of external public debt a critical empirical and policy issue. Governments in the region depend on external borrowing to supplement limited domestic resources, yet the extent to which such debt supports or constrains economic growth is still contested. This study therefore examines the linear and nonlinear impact of external public debt on economic growth using a panel of 20 HIPCs covering the period 2000-2024. Employing the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator within a dynamic ARDL framework, the analysis …

Rainfall Variability And Dynamics Of Non-Farm Participation: Evidence From Rural Farmers In Tanzania, Gloria Benedict Mapunda, Razack Bakari Lokina, Onesmo Selejio, Remidius Denis Ruhinduka

Tanzanian Economic Review

Rainfall variability has been and will continue to affect the socio-economic welfare of developing countries. Substantial evidence exists on agricultural-based adaptation practices, but less work is done in examining non-agricultural adaptation practices and their dynamics in response to rainfall variability. This paper investigates the effect of rainfall variability on the dynamics of entry into, sustained non-farm participation and exit from non-farm participation for rural farmers. Using the National Panel Survey for 2008, 2010, and 2010, the Pooled cross-section multinomial logit was employed as an approach to estimation. Results show that negative rainfall deviations reduce the likelihood of farmers’ entry into …

Exporting And Productivity: Evidence From Firm-Level Data In Tanzania, Josephat J. Hongoli, Vincent Leyaro

Tanzanian Economic Review

Using firm-level data (2006 – 2023), this paper examines the interactions between export behavior and productivity among manufacturing firms in Tanzania.  Specifically, the study tests the hypothesis that more productive firms self-select into export markets and benefit from global markets through learning-by-exporting and economies of scale. The study employs a two-step procedure to estimate firm-level productivity and compares exporting firms with non-exporting firms, controlling for observable heterogeneity. The findings of the study reveal a high and significant productivity premium of approximately 32 percent, which is consistent with the existing empirical literature. The results remain robust even when considering partial productivity …

Women's Empowerment, Female Genital Mutilation And Domestic Violence In Tanzania: Evidence From The Tanzania Demographic And Health Survey 2022, Monica Sebastian Kauky, Hinju Gabriel

Tanzanian Economic Review

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) remains an important public health and human rights issue in Tanzania. This study uses data from the 2022 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) and applies logit and Tobit models to investigate the relationships between women’s empowerment, FGM/C, and domestic violence. The results indicate that approximately 3 percent of women had undergone FGM/C, while 44 percent had experienced domestic violence. Women’s educational attainment and control over land are also important factors associated with the prevalence of FGM/C. The findings further show a strong relationship between women’s autonomy and their exposure to domestic violence, particularly in relation …

Adapting To Aridity: Crop Production Trends Among Smallholder Farmers In Iramba District, Tanzania, Nashokigwa Shalua, Digna Wolfram Mlengule, Johnstone M. Andrea

Tanzanian Economic Review

Increasing crop production amid recurrent droughts remains a critical challenge for smallholder farmers in the semi-arid Iramba District; however, empirical evidence on crop production remains scarce. This paper analysed trends in crop production in Iramba District from 1995 to 2024. Mixed methods were used, and data were collected through structured interviews, focus group discussions, field observations, in-depth interviews and document reviews. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics while qualitative data were thematically analysed. The results indicate that 84.2% (n=95) of the households showed an increase in crop yields despite concurrent severe drought. Sunflower, maize, bulrush millet, and sorghum were …

Genetically Modified Crops In Africa: Evidence On Adoption, Economic Benefits, Environmental Effects, And Constraints, Aloyce Hepelwa, Innocensia John

Tanzanian Economic Review

Africa faces deep food insecurity with over 300 million undernourished people driven by, low agricultural productivity, and climate shocks. To enhance food production and sustainable development, there is potential seen in genetically modified (GM) crops. To explore the potential of GM crops, this paper examines their production, adoption, economic and environmental impacts, adoption barriers, and policy implications in Africa and globally. This is done using a structured narrative review of peer-reviewed literature, reports, and policy documents (2014–2024) sourced from different databases complemented by stakeholder consultations. The findings show that GM has expanded considerably worldwide driven by high productivity, reduced pesticide …

Economic And Employment Outcomes Of Youth Vocational Education In Tanzania, William George

Tanzanian Economic Review

This study examines vocational education’s effectiveness in addressing youth unemployment and promoting economic self-reliance in Tanzania. Data from 394 vocational graduates were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression models to assess the impact of vocational training on employment and economic outcomes. Results show that 83.6% of respondents believe vocational education provides essential employment skills, while 62.3% agree it enhances productivity. However, 39.3% highlight the need for reforms to better align training with labor market needs. The findings underscore vocational education's vital role in youth employment, advocating for curriculum updates and increased resources to improve system effectiveness.

Understanding The Complementarity And Substitutability Of Cooking Fuels In Developing Countries: Evidence From 2020/21 Tanzania National Panel Survey, Samwel Saimon Lwiza, Monica Sebastian Kauky

Tanzanian Economic Review

Increasing access to alternative energy sources in developing countries might be a potential for multiple energy consumption rather than switching from traditional to modern ones. This study aims to examine the complementarity and substitutability of cooking fuels and factors influencing households’ choices of such fuels in developing countries. Two categories of cooking energy were considered: traditional (dirty) fuels - firewood, charcoal and kerosene; and modern (cleaner) fuels - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and electricity. Based on a nationally representative sample of 5,199 households from the Tanzania National Panel Survey (NPS) of 2020/21, results from a Multivariate Probit model indicate that …

The Role Of Pastinformation, Time, And Emotional Pressure In Heuristic Decision-Making, James Albanus, Martin Chegere

Tanzanian Economic Review

Unlike the assumptions of classical rational choice theory, decision-makers are far less rational and not always self-interested. Decision-makers normally have less than perfect information, face limited time to make decisions, fall into cognitive biases, and reciprocate. Behavioural economics argues that decision-makers typically face bounded rationality and adopt simple, intuitive “rules of thumb” instead of calculating optimal solutions for every decision they make.

Using insights from behavioural economics, this paper explores how people with economic goals make decisions under time and emotional pressure. Specifically, it examines how a goalkeeper, as an economic agent, makes decisions during a penalty session using data …

Do Poverty Traps Exist In Uganda? Household Level Evidence From Panel Data, Alex Aliga, Susan Kavuma, Oryema John Bosco

Tanzanian Economic Review

This study aimed at providing new evidence on the existence of poverty trap among Uganda’s households using Uganda National Panel data. Evidence of the existence of a poverty trap is fundamental in guiding the development of sound policies and interventions targeted to assist in pulling households out of poverty trap. Analysis was based on two sets of panel data comprising 8,122 households from 3 waves (2009/2010-2011/2012) and 12,199 households from 4 waves (2013/2014-2019/2020). Using the PCA constructed asset index approach based on a parametric regression model, we show that a poverty trap exists. This is revealed by the negative quartic …

Revisiting The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Budget Deficits And Trade Deficits In Tanzania (2003–2023), Enock S. Mwakalila, Rosemary S. Taylor

Tanzanian Economic Review

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis has been extensively examined across various economic contexts, yet its applicability often depends on a country’s unique economic structure and dynamics. This study revisits the hypothesis in Tanzania, analyzing the relationship between the budget and trade deficits using quarterly time series data from 2005 to 2023. Employing a Granger Causality test within a multivariate Vector Error Correction Model, this research explores the direction of causality between the two deficits. The findings confirm a significant short and long-run relationship between the budget and trade deficits. Specifically, the results reveal a unidirectional short-run causality from the trade deficit …

Manufacturing Exports Drivers In Tanzania: The Applicability Of H-O Theorem, Mugisha R. Rweyemamu

Tanzanian Economic Review

This paper analyses the drivers of manufacturing exports in Tanzania to demonstrate the applicability of the Heckscher–Ohlin theorem through new trade theories in the manufacturing sector. The study hypothesises that: the labour force positively determines manufacturing exports; GDP has a positive impact on manufacturing exports; and manufacturing production has a positive impact on manufacturing exports. The paper employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approach. Lagged manufacturing exports, labour force and trade liberalisation were found to be significant drivers of manufacturing exports. The findings support the H-O theorem and its complements by new trade theories for the Tanzanian manufacturing sector. The …

Does Finance Matter In Climate Change Adaptation? Evidence From Smallholder Farmers’ Access To Informal Credits In Hanang District, Tanzania, Jackson Raymond Sawe

Tanzanian Economic Review

This paper examines smallholder farmers‘ access to and use of informal credits for climate change adaptation in Hanang District, Tanzania. The paper used bivariate probit model to analyze data. The results reveal that about 75% of respondents indicated to have access to informal credit, with 68.3% actively employing credit in agriculture for climate change adaptation. The bivariate probit regression analysis shows that having good relationships with other farmers and neighbors or relatives, along with a lower perception of risk, are the most important factors that affect access and use of informal credit for climate change adaptation. Building relationships and connections …

A Revisit Of The Causal Effect Of Debt Burden On Inflation Dynamics In Tanzania, Cornel Joseph, Mirau N. Mbise

Tanzanian Economic Review

This research paper delves into the impact of national debt on inflation in Tanzania. It uses the autoregressive distributed lag model and the Granger causality approach, with quarterly data from 2003 to 2023. The findings show that total debt stock and public external debt have a negative effect on inflation in the long run. Meanwhile, long-term inflation is positively influenced by both private and public external debt. The study also reveals that national debt has a one-way causal relationship with inflation in Tanzania. These results suggest that the government should focus on managing public debt when making decisions to control …