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Modeling And Forecasting Crime Patterns In Bellingham, Washington, Zachary Domingo, Eric Shoner

Scholars Week

Our purpose is to use time series analysis to model and forecast the underlying dynamics behind crime in Bellingham, Washington. Using recent monthly data from the Bellingham Police Department, we considered singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average modelling techniques to estimate significant deterministic patterns in the data. After examining the multitude of data provided, we narrowed down to two categories of crime: alcohol offenses and domestic violence. We created two time series models for each category and compared them to each other. The better performing model was used to forecast the number of crime incidents for ten months and …