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Algorithms In Battle: Ai, International Relations, And Future Warfare, Nikos Koutsoupias, Kyriakos Mikelis, Marios Nosios Sep 2026

Algorithms In Battle: Ai, International Relations, And Future Warfare, Nikos Koutsoupias, Kyriakos Mikelis, Marios Nosios

Journal of Strategic Security

This study examines the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in transforming contemporary warfare, with a particular emphasis on its applications in unmanned aerial platforms, sensor networks, and decision-support architectures. The analysis examines current operational uses, the algorithmic processes that enable them, and empirical insights drawn from the Russian-Ukrainian War. Findings indicate that machine learning enhances key military functions, including surveillance, navigation, targeting, fire coordination, and maintaining communication networks under conditions of electronic disruption. The emergence of loitering munitions and autonomous navigation systems reflects a pattern of incremental innovation, wherein automation augments operational efficiency without displacing human authority in decisions involving …


Structural Dependency: Nato, Defense Industry Politics, And Europe’S Stagnation, Diane M. Zorri Sep 2026

Structural Dependency: Nato, Defense Industry Politics, And Europe’S Stagnation, Diane M. Zorri

Journal of Strategic Security

Europe’s defense industrial base (DIB) weaknesses are commonly attributed to underinvestment, fragmented policies, or a lack of European cohesiveness. This article advances an alternative explanation: European defense industrial dependency has emerged through institutionalized alliance structures that systematically privileged US capabilities and incentives, becoming self-reinforcing and difficult for European actors to exit, even as their strategic preferences evolved. Drawing on dependency theory, path dependence, and theories of alliance politics, this article argues that transatlantic security arrangements established during the early Cold War, most notably NATO’s integrated command structures, defense procurement norms, and interoperability requirements, have generated long-lasting asymmetries in production, technology, …


Multidomain Operations: The Pursuit Of Battlefield Dominance In The 21st Century. Edited By Amos Fox And Franz-Stefan Gady. Howgate Publishing, 2026., Nathan Jones Jun 2026

Multidomain Operations: The Pursuit Of Battlefield Dominance In The 21st Century. Edited By Amos Fox And Franz-Stefan Gady. Howgate Publishing, 2026., Nathan Jones

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.


Human-Ai Teaming Under Fire: Lessons From Ukraine’S Human-In-The-Loop Combat Ai Systems, Rahul Kumar Tiwari, Ram Babu Jun 2026

Human-Ai Teaming Under Fire: Lessons From Ukraine’S Human-In-The-Loop Combat Ai Systems, Rahul Kumar Tiwari, Ram Babu

Journal of Strategic Security

This article examines human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming in Ukrainian combat operations from 2022 to 2025, exploring the integration of AI systems with human decision-making in military contexts and how crisis-driven innovation can lead to human-AI teaming. The research addresses three questions: the effectiveness of human-AI teams compared with human-only or fully autonomous systems; the effect of organizational structures on the sustainability of AI integration; and strategic implications for the development of the doctrine and international security governance in the case of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The methodology uses mixed-method comparative case study analysis of three different Ukrainian systems: …


Escalation By Algorithm, Restraint By Architecture: Pakistan’S Military Ai Divergence, Sajjad Ahmed, Ahmad Nizar Yaakub, Asma Javed Jun 2026

Escalation By Algorithm, Restraint By Architecture: Pakistan’S Military Ai Divergence, Sajjad Ahmed, Ahmad Nizar Yaakub, Asma Javed

Journal of Strategic Security

Debates on military artificial intelligence (AI) remain skewed toward great power dynamics, oscillating between techno-optimist celebrations of speed and techno-pessimist warnings of collapse. This binary overlooks how middle powers, operating under nuclearized rivalry and asymmetric sanction risk, embed restraint into organizational and technical practice. This article develops Systems Restrained Realism (SRR), a framework that extends defensive realism into the machine age by theorizing restraint as a deliberate doctrinal posture rather than a symptom of incapacity. Using Pakistan as a critical case, the study draws on expert interviews, procurement manuals, and UN submissions to demonstrate how restraint is operationalized through latency …


Youtube As A Tool For Digital Diplomacy And Strategic Security: A Comparative Analysis Of Russia And Kazakhstan, Bekzat Baktybekovna Baktybekova, Elmira Kagazbaeva, Botagoz Ali Jun 2026

Youtube As A Tool For Digital Diplomacy And Strategic Security: A Comparative Analysis Of Russia And Kazakhstan, Bekzat Baktybekovna Baktybekova, Elmira Kagazbaeva, Botagoz Ali

Journal of Strategic Security

In the context of growing competition in the information space, digital diplomacy is gaining key importance for the strategic security of states. This study analyzes how Russia and Kazakhstan use the YouTube platform to promote their foreign policy narratives, shape the image of the state, and strengthen digital sovereignty. Based on a qualitative analysis of 60 videos (30 for each country) published by official government channels between 2020 and 2024, differences in strategies, visual codes, tonality, and patterns of interaction with the audience were identified. The Russian approach is characterized by an aggressive narrative, antagonism to Western structures, and a …


Classified Information Management In Kosovo: Lessons From Nato, The European Union, And The Western Balkans, Bahri Gashi, Ngadhnjim Brovina, Arian Kadriu Jun 2026

Classified Information Management In Kosovo: Lessons From Nato, The European Union, And The Western Balkans, Bahri Gashi, Ngadhnjim Brovina, Arian Kadriu

Journal of Strategic Security

This study examines the legal framework for the protection of classified information in Kosovo, focusing on the role of the Agency for the Protection of Classified Information (APCI). The selection of APCI as the focal institution stems from its central role in implementing Kosovo’s legal and institutional framework for classified information, following the country’s efforts to align with Euro-Atlantic standards. In a newly established state like Kosovo, protecting sensitive information is crucial for national security. The study compares Kosovo’s model with those of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU), and Western Balkan countries, highlighting its alignment …


The Role Of Special Services In Providing National Information Security, Volodymyr Artemov, Alexander Rusnak, Viktor Trepak, Grygorii Ostafiichuk, Alexandr Kalinin Jun 2026

The Role Of Special Services In Providing National Information Security, Volodymyr Artemov, Alexander Rusnak, Viktor Trepak, Grygorii Ostafiichuk, Alexandr Kalinin

Journal of Strategic Security

The growing dependence of states on digital infrastructures has elevated national information security to a matter of strategic importance. This study examines the role of special services (intelligence agencies) in protecting against cyber threats, focusing on their legal, operational, and technological functions. Using a combination of comparative legal analysis, case law review, expert surveys, and statistical modelling across 20 countries, the research highlights both strengths and limitations of current approaches. The findings demonstrate that states with clear and specific legislation on intelligence and cybersecurity achieve a 26% higher rate of preventive success than those with ambiguous frameworks. Strong judicial oversight …


Public-Private Cooperation In European Cybersecurity, Andreea Nicoleta Dragomir, Daiana Maura Vesmaș Jun 2026

Public-Private Cooperation In European Cybersecurity, Andreea Nicoleta Dragomir, Daiana Maura Vesmaș

Journal of Strategic Security

This article critically examines if the public–private partnerships (PPPs) help the European Union strengthen its cyber resilience, a challenge that is now closely tied to the Union’s broader strategic security goals. The discussion does not rely on one single angle. It moves back and forth between the legal side—looking at instruments such as the Network and Information Systems 2 (NIS2) Directive, the Cybersecurity Act, the proposed Cyber Resilience Act, and the Cyber Solidarity Act—and the lessons that come from practice. Examples include the dismantling of Operation Avalanche, the experience of the European Cyber Security Challenge, and the information-sharing efforts of …


Analysis Of Security Concerns In India-Central Asia Relations, Anmol Mukhia, Anurag Tripathi, Sanjeev Kumar Tiwari Jun 2026

Analysis Of Security Concerns In India-Central Asia Relations, Anmol Mukhia, Anurag Tripathi, Sanjeev Kumar Tiwari

Journal of Strategic Security

India-Central Asia relations have gained strategic significance driven by its historical ties, growing economic interests, and, most importantly, evolving security dynamics. This article deals with multifaceted security concerns such as drug trafficking, terrorism, radicalization, and the implications of instability in Afghanistan. The findings show that security concerns in the region, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, constitute a significant obstacle, alongside geographical challenges, to India’s connectivity with the Central Asian Republics (CARS). India’s rising aspiration to increase connectivity and build closer ties with the region in energy, trade, and commerce heavily relies on a peaceful, prosperous, and stable Central and South …


Shadow Logistics: Military Vulnerability Through Civilian Dependence, Gilles A. Paché Jun 2026

Shadow Logistics: Military Vulnerability Through Civilian Dependence, Gilles A. Paché

Journal of Strategic Security

The rapid evolution of civilian-origin technologies repurposed for defense is reshaping the foundations of logistical advantage and altering the conditions under which armed forces operate. Modern missions rely on an extensive ecosystem of infrastructures—port terminals, cloud services, data platforms, and civilian contractors—whose reliability frequently lies beyond the authority of public institutions. This environment gives rise to shadow logistics, a network of civilian systems largely absent from conventional doctrine yet capable of producing significant operational disruptions when failures occur. Case studies show that some dark assets, whether physical or informational, can act as multipliers of effectiveness while simultaneously creating systemic vulnerabilities …


Hypersonic Missiles: Evaluating Modern Warfare In The Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Bill Christopher Arputharaj, Amit Mukherjee Apr 2026

Hypersonic Missiles: Evaluating Modern Warfare In The Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Bill Christopher Arputharaj, Amit Mukherjee

Journal of Strategic Security

The Russia-Ukraine war represents the world’s first theatre where hypersonic missile systems have been employed in combat operations. However, there is insufficient literature on the comparative analysis of Russian hypersonic missiles launched during the conflict, namely the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, 3M22 Zircon, and Oreshnik intermediate-range missile systems. The article evaluates their technological complexity, survivability against multilayer air and missile defence networks, and their overall impact in this conflict. The research establishes a doctrinal framework for translating theoretical deterrence into applied battlefield outcomes for hypersonic weapon systems. The study uses a qualitative approach that draws inferences from defence reports and media coverage …


Conscripts, Convicts, And Contractors: Ersatz Soldiers And Russia's Total Mobilization Workarounds, Tad A. Schnaufer Ii, Guido Rossi Apr 2026

Conscripts, Convicts, And Contractors: Ersatz Soldiers And Russia's Total Mobilization Workarounds, Tad A. Schnaufer Ii, Guido Rossi

Journal of Strategic Security

The large-scale conventional conflict in Ukraine has absorbed hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides. Yet, domestic considerations have limited mobilization of citizens into the military at the devastating cost of prolonging the conflict. The 2022 Russian invasion force should have comprised far more personnel to ensure success at the outset. Russian leadership grossly underestimated the Ukrainian will to resist and vastly overestimated its own capabilities. Once the initial attack failed, both Russia and Ukraine only incrementally mobilized their populations, leaving neither side with overwhelming strength to create a breakthrough that would end the war. Hence, the ongoing slog …


Push And Pull: Nato, Eu, And Poland’S Positioning After 2022, Zsombor Zeöld, Réka Dobreffné Bogár, Dániel Bernát Vay Apr 2026

Push And Pull: Nato, Eu, And Poland’S Positioning After 2022, Zsombor Zeöld, Réka Dobreffné Bogár, Dániel Bernát Vay

Journal of Strategic Security

The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war profoundly reshaped European security, exposing long-standing weaknesses while accelerating institutional adaptation within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). This article argues that NATO reaffirmed its role as the guarantor of hard deterrence and defense commitments (“pull effects”), while the EU advanced as a provider of institutional support, logistics, financial tools, and defense-industrial initiatives (“push effects”). A case study of Poland illustrates how a frontline state navigates these dynamics, using NATO’s pull and the EU’s push to expand its security agency and shape broader European defense debates. Together, these developments suggest a …


Post-Ukraine Fallout: How Azerbaijan’S Break With Russia Reflects The Strategic Consequences Of A Weakened Kremlin, Hasan Alisoy Apr 2026

Post-Ukraine Fallout: How Azerbaijan’S Break With Russia Reflects The Strategic Consequences Of A Weakened Kremlin, Hasan Alisoy

Journal of Strategic Security

This article analyzes how Russia’s declining power, accelerated by its military overextension in Ukraine, triggered a historic rupture in Russia–Azerbaijan relations, culminating in the 2025 Yekaterinburg incident. It argues that the deaths of two Azerbaijani citizens in Russian custody—and the retaliatory actions taken by Baku—did not cause the diplomatic collapse, but rather crystallized a long-term realignment rooted in Azerbaijan’s post-conflict assertiveness and Russia’s unraveling regional leverage. Drawing on the 2024 downing of an Azerbaijani airliner by a Russian missile, the premature withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh, and Azerbaijan’s evolving alliance with Türkiye, the article positions this realignment within a …


Navigating Power Play: Sri Lanka’S Strategic Role In Indo-Pacific Geopolitics, Neeraj Singh Manhas, Jyot Shikar Singh, Tilak Raj Sharma Apr 2026

Navigating Power Play: Sri Lanka’S Strategic Role In Indo-Pacific Geopolitics, Neeraj Singh Manhas, Jyot Shikar Singh, Tilak Raj Sharma

Journal of Strategic Security

The Indo-Pacific’s geopolitical significance has surged due to China’s assertive rise, prompting the QUAD nations to counterbalance Beijing’s influence. Sri Lanka, a strategically located island state, emerges as a key hub for global trade and security. It examines how Sri Lanka navigates its geopolitical position to achieve national goals while balancing the interests of larger powers. Lastly, Colombo’s strategic engagements with major powers and regional frameworks highlight efforts to assert agency and amplify the voices of smaller island states. Despite its strategic importance, Sri Lanka’s agency is constrained by power asymmetries in the Indo-Pacific, contributing to understanding small-state geopolitics.


A Tilly Comparative Study On State-Building In South Vietnam And Afghanistan, Hoang Trung "Alex" Vu, P.S. Sam Tran Apr 2026

A Tilly Comparative Study On State-Building In South Vietnam And Afghanistan, Hoang Trung "Alex" Vu, P.S. Sam Tran

Journal of Strategic Security

The 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was often compared to the 1975 fall of South Vietnam as two strategic failures by the United States in attempting to establish a Western-friendly, democratic government in their regions. While superficial similarities could be observed between the two cases, this research provides a further comparative analysis of state-building efforts in South Vietnam and Afghanistan to uncover critical lessons in regime-sustaining and the politics of American intervention. The article uses Charles Tilly’s "war makes state" concept to examine war-making, state-making, protection, and extraction as core elements of state-building. The research utilizes comparative historical analysis to …


Sheinbaum’S Dilemma: Mexico’S Security Choices After Fto Designation, Ghaleb Krame, John P. Sullivan, Magdalena Garcia Apr 2026

Sheinbaum’S Dilemma: Mexico’S Security Choices After Fto Designation, Ghaleb Krame, John P. Sullivan, Magdalena Garcia

Journal of Strategic Security

The US designation of six Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) marks a pivotal shift in bilateral security relations, compelling Mexico to navigate a complex strategic landscape. This study uses game-theoretic modeling, scenario analysis, and Nash equilibria to evaluate three possible responses by the administration of Claudia Sheinbaum: (1) Total Subordination—fully aligning with US counter-cartel efforts, (2) Covert Subordination—secretly integrating US support while maintaining a public stance of sovereignty, and (3) Strategic Resistance—rejecting US intervention in favor of an independent security approach.

New evidence on US-side border corruption and clearer definitions of key terms (joint cross-border operations, intelligence fusion …


Russia's Information Warfare In Africa: Influence Operations In The Sahel, Stanislav Vasyliuk Feb 2026

Russia's Information Warfare In Africa: Influence Operations In The Sahel, Stanislav Vasyliuk

Journal of Strategic Security

In the new era of technology and digitalization, the internet has become a new battleground where states are able to exercise their power and employ various tools to achieve foreign policy objectives. While this creates a possibility to improve the communication between the public and the government, it also opens a door for bad actors to pursue their agenda through fake news and disinformation. Russia has long been at the forefront of utilizing both in-person and digital spaces for propaganda efforts. The Sahel region of Africa presents possibly one of the most successful stories in the Kremlin’s recent track record. …


What’S Wrong With These Pictures? A Critique Of Waltz, Walt And Mcfaul, Jan Niklas Rolf Oct 2025

What’S Wrong With These Pictures? A Critique Of Waltz, Walt And Mcfaul, Jan Niklas Rolf

Journal of Strategic Security

Reflecting on the ideas that have been offered to explain interstate conflict, Kenneth Waltz famously identified three images of war. Waltz’s method to rule out certain causes as the underlying causes of war was to identify constant and variable variables. The fact that the variety in one variable is not matched by the variety in another variable then allowed him to question the assumed causal relationship between the two variables. But whereas in Man, the State, and War he argued that agency, because of its constancy, cannot explain variations in war and peace, in his later book Theory of International …


Intelligence As An Instrument Of National Power: Lessons Learned From The Tensions Between Serbia And Kosovo, Vadym Chernysh Oct 2025

Intelligence As An Instrument Of National Power: Lessons Learned From The Tensions Between Serbia And Kosovo, Vadym Chernysh

Journal of Strategic Security

Intelligence activity is unique; it can be a valuable and powerful tool in the hands of state leaders. Leaders should rely not solely on their perception or intuition to leverage the intelligence instrument of national power but rather on understanding this phenomenon and its inherent qualities. Often, political leadership may confuse the functions of intelligence and law-enforcement agencies, leading to the ineffective or inefficient use of national power instruments to achieve strategic goals. Leveraging the intelligence instrument of national power in prolonged conflicts with a larger adversary is a crucial aspect of statecraft. The role of intelligence can be vital …


India’S Policy Shift Towards Afghanistan Under De Facto Taliban Government, Neha Manhas, Sitakanta Mishra Oct 2025

India’S Policy Shift Towards Afghanistan Under De Facto Taliban Government, Neha Manhas, Sitakanta Mishra

Journal of Strategic Security

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan is no longer at the forefront of the global agenda, though after four years of its rule, the Islamic Emirate strives for global legitimacy. India, one of the major partners in the reconstruction of Afghanistan since 2001, has drastically minimized its role, and no major attempt was made to deal with the Taliban until the withdrawal of US/NATO forces in 2021. Similarly, the Taliban regime in turn has not made any breakthrough with India in its diplomatic pursuits. However, sporadic meetings between the Indian and Taliban government officials have taken place, leading to speculation …


U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan And Realignment Of Eurasian Rival Powers, Toghrul Seyidbayli Jul 2025

U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan And Realignment Of Eurasian Rival Powers, Toghrul Seyidbayli

Journal of Strategic Security

This article explores the geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, focusing on how it has catalyzed strategic realignments among China, Russia, and Iran in Eurasia. By examining the withdrawal’s impact on the regional power dynamics, the article analyzes how these revisionist states have exploited the resulting power vacuum to assert their influence and challenge the existing international order. China has used this moment to expand its Belt and Road Initiative, Russia has felt emboldened to escalate its military actions in Ukraine, and Iran, despite regional setbacks, remains determined in pursuing its revisionist strategy in Eurasia. The study employs …


China-Taliban Security Ties: A Reimagining Of South Asia's Security Discourse, Amit Kumar Mr., Veena Ramachandran Jul 2025

China-Taliban Security Ties: A Reimagining Of South Asia's Security Discourse, Amit Kumar Mr., Veena Ramachandran

Journal of Strategic Security

This article examines how China constructs a distinct security discourse on terrorism through its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Moving beyond traditional materialist interpretations of security, the study draws on critical security studies to explore how China uses language, representation, and institutional practices to frame terrorism and project itself as a regional stabilizer. The Taliban’s return to power in 2021 has prompted China to expand its strategic presence in South Asia, particularly through economic diplomacy, intelligence cooperation, and regional multilateral and minilateral forums. Through qualitative discourse analysis of Chinese official statements, white papers, SCO documents, and state media narratives, …


Learning From Afghanistan: The Futility Of Occupation In Nation-Building, Jithin Raveendran Jul 2025

Learning From Afghanistan: The Futility Of Occupation In Nation-Building, Jithin Raveendran

Journal of Strategic Security

This article explores the challenges and failures of nation-building under occupation Amidst an active warfare, using Afghanistan as a critical case study. Over two decades, the US-led intervention sought to establish stability and democracy but ultimately faltered due to misaligned strategies and systemic flaws. Efforts to impose Western governance structures clashed with Afghanistan’s deeply rooted tribal and cultural norms, fueling resistance and eroding legitimacy. The article identifies key shortcomings, including the neglect of local agency, cultural insensitivity, over-reliance on military solutions, and the perpetuation of dependency and corruption. It argues that nation-building by occupying forces is inherently flawed without prioritizing …


Afghanistan: Taliban’S Second Chance And Red Strategy, Oleg Golishnikov Jul 2025

Afghanistan: Taliban’S Second Chance And Red Strategy, Oleg Golishnikov

Journal of Strategic Security

An objective evaluation of Afghanistan’s political and socioeconomic situation since the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021 is crucial for understanding and addressing security issues at the national, regional, and global levels. Unlike most studies, this article provides new insights, offering a balanced assessment of the situation in Afghanistan and developing recommendations on dealing with the Taliban regime. By employing qualitative methods and a rational theory framework, this article argues that Afghanistan under Taliban rule is experiencing a mix of positive and negative trends. Major positive trends include the relative peace in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s real power and control over the …


From Nation-Building To Collapse: Analyzing Afghanistan’S 2021 Fall And The Geopolitical Entropies Of U.S. Withdrawal, Arash Beidollahkhani, Edriss Rasa Jul 2025

From Nation-Building To Collapse: Analyzing Afghanistan’S 2021 Fall And The Geopolitical Entropies Of U.S. Withdrawal, Arash Beidollahkhani, Edriss Rasa

Journal of Strategic Security

The collapse of the Afghan government in 2021 and the subsequent return of the Taliban marked a significant shift in contemporary geopolitics. This paper examines the political and social dynamics surrounding the U.S. and allied forces' withdrawal, focusing on the entropic forces that contributed to the breakdown of Afghanistan’s governance system. While Afghanistan has experienced recurrent governmental collapses, the post-2021 crisis highlights deeper structural challenges within both the geopolitical and domestic spheres. The research investigates the failure of the U.S.-backed Afghan government, established through two decades of nation-building efforts, and explores how the abrupt foreign withdrawal dismantled fragile political structures, …


Reconstructing Russian Strategic Culture: Narratives, Othering, And The West, Dogachan Dagi Apr 2025

Reconstructing Russian Strategic Culture: Narratives, Othering, And The West, Dogachan Dagi

Journal of Strategic Security

The importance of narratives in the constitution of Russian strategic culture has been largely neglected. This is due to the common assumption that Russian strategic culture is out there, historically determined, and constant from the Russian Empire through the Soviet Union to Putin’s Russia. This article argues that Russian strategic culture is not ‘etched in stone,’ but a dynamic ‘context’ in the making of which stories told about the past and the present, the Russian self and its others, threats and aspirations play a constitutive role. As such, this article demonstrates how Russian strategic culture is being continuously reconstructed by …


The Impact Of Small-Scale Conflicts On Post-Soviet Alliances, Ani Hakobyan Apr 2025

The Impact Of Small-Scale Conflicts On Post-Soviet Alliances, Ani Hakobyan

Journal of Strategic Security

Military alliances are crucial for international and regional security. However, conflicts may disrupt these connections, weakening alliance structures, particularly in complex regions such as the post-Soviet space. This article examines the effects of small-scale conflicts on the post-Soviet alliance network by analyzing the impact of three conflicts: the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) War. Using the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM), the study finds that three conflicts significantly weakened alliance structures in the region, reducing the likelihood of new alliance ties within both the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and broader …


Rethinking Cyber Deterrence: Adapting To The Realities Of The Digital Battlefield, Peter Pijpers, Kraesten Arnold Apr 2025

Rethinking Cyber Deterrence: Adapting To The Realities Of The Digital Battlefield, Peter Pijpers, Kraesten Arnold

Journal of Strategic Security

The question of whether deterrence is achievable in or through cyberspace has sparked considerable debate among academics. Over time, arguments have evolved, further entrenching this discourse and moving it out of the mainstream spotlight. This article examines how recent armed conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza may reinvigorate discussions surrounding this issue. It emphasizes that cyber activities can indeed produce deterrent effects while also recognizing the necessity for a new terminology to accurately capture these effects. In cyberspace, traditional deterrent logics—such as deterrence by denial or punishment—along with core principles including credibility, communication, and cost-benefit analysis, do not uniformly apply due …