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How Many Cats (Or “Cat-Equivalents”) Does It Take To Cause An Extinction? And How Simple Can You Make A Model Before It Becomes Useless?, Kate O'Brien, Michaela Plein, Matthew Holden, Nigel Bean, Christopher Baker, Eve Mcdonald-Madden
How Many Cats (Or “Cat-Equivalents”) Does It Take To Cause An Extinction? And How Simple Can You Make A Model Before It Becomes Useless?, Kate O'Brien, Michaela Plein, Matthew Holden, Nigel Bean, Christopher Baker, Eve Mcdonald-Madden
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Managers make decisions on how to protect and restore environmental systems, along with associated ecosystem services. Ideally, these decisions are made with the support of predictive models, built on a sound understanding of how the system works, validated with data and accompanied by credible estimates of uncertainty. However, in many cases data are scarce or non-existent, understanding of key processes is limited, and disturbances such as land-use change or invasive species may be fundamentally altering the way the system functions. If there are insufficient data available for meaningful parameterization or validation, and no prospect of more data becoming available, how …
How Does Uncertainty Framing Affect Whether A Question Is Answerable?, Joseph Guillaume, Raimo Hämäläinen, Casey Helgeson, Matti Kummu
How Does Uncertainty Framing Affect Whether A Question Is Answerable?, Joseph Guillaume, Raimo Hämäläinen, Casey Helgeson, Matti Kummu
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Environmental modelling exercises often aim to answer specific question(s) that arise from particular environmental management problems. But these questions are not always answerable given current knowledge, and where they are considered unanswerable, this perceived knowledge gap can be used to justify action or inaction, as invoked respectively by the precautionary principle and climate change denialists. Whether a question is judged answerable can turn on how the role of uncertainty is communicated when providing scientific information, that is, on how uncertainties are framed. Uncertainty framing can hence be manipulated to influence how information is used in decision making, for example through …
Time Evolving Robustness Evaluation For Risk-Based Cooperative Long-Term Water Supply Development Pathways That Include Short-Term Drought Mitigation Actions, Bernardo Trindade, Patrick M. Reed, Gregory W. Characklis
Time Evolving Robustness Evaluation For Risk-Based Cooperative Long-Term Water Supply Development Pathways That Include Short-Term Drought Mitigation Actions, Bernardo Trindade, Patrick M. Reed, Gregory W. Characklis
International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
Well-coordinated regional short-term drought management actions can be used by water utilities to mitigate water scarcity and financial risk, potentially postponing the need of new infrastructure construction. However, in the longer term, infrastructure expansion is likely to be necessary to address rising water demands. Given their interdependence, it is important to capture how short-term mitigation strategies influence longer term infrastructure development pathways. Our research exploits risk-based triggers for short and long-term actions (respectively, water transfers, restrictions, and financial hedges; and construction of reuse, water treatment, reservoir capacities, etc.). However, a robustness evaluation of these pathways must account for the integrated …