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Encrypted Jihad: Investigating The Role Of Telegram App In Lone Wolf Attacks In The West, Ahmad Shehabat, Teodor Mitew, Yahia Alzoubi
Encrypted Jihad: Investigating The Role Of Telegram App In Lone Wolf Attacks In The West, Ahmad Shehabat, Teodor Mitew, Yahia Alzoubi
Journal of Strategic Security
The study aims to capture links between the use of encrypted communication channel -Telegram and lone wolf attacks occurred in Europe between 2015-2016. To understand threads of ISIS communication on Telegram we used digital ethnography approach which consists of the self-observation of information flows on four of ISIS’s most celebrated telegram Channels. We draw on public sphere theory and coined the term terror socio-sphere 3.0 as the theoretical background of this study. The collected data is presented as screenshots to capture a visual evidence of ISIS communication threads. This study shows that ISIS Telegram channels play critical role in personal …
A Conceptual Model To Identify Intent To Use Chemical-Biological Weapons, Mary D. Zalesny, Paul Whitney, Amanda White, Theodore R. Plasse, Michael T. Grundy
A Conceptual Model To Identify Intent To Use Chemical-Biological Weapons, Mary D. Zalesny, Paul Whitney, Amanda White, Theodore R. Plasse, Michael T. Grundy
Journal of Strategic Security
This paper describes a conceptual model to identify and interrelate indicators of intent of non-state actors to use chemical or biological weapons. The model expands on earlier efforts to understand intent to use weapons of mass destruction by building upon well-researched theories of intent and behavior and focusing on a sub-set of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to account for the distinct challenges of employing different types of WMD in violent acts. The conceptual model is presented as a first, critical step in developing a computational model for assessing the potential for groups to use chemical or biological weapons.
Comparing Civilian Support For Terrorism, Srobana Bhattacharya
Comparing Civilian Support For Terrorism, Srobana Bhattacharya
Journal of Strategic Security
Terrorism is an extreme form of political violence, that is inherently abhorrent in nature. Yet, it continues to attain enough support to continue and survive. The recent proliferation of Islamic State and its ever increasing domestic and international civilian support base urges immediate attention to this question. While most research holds that provision of public goods by terrorist groups is the primary cause for high levels of civilian support, I argue that, terrorist groups are more interested in resource extraction rather than resource provision. Additionally, these studies pay scant attention to existing resource structure, especially territorial and political control to …
Containing Terrorism: A Dynamic Model, Giti Zahedzadeh
Containing Terrorism: A Dynamic Model, Giti Zahedzadeh
Journal of Strategic Security
The strategic interplay between counterterror measures and terror activity is complex. Herein, we propose a dynamic model to depict this interaction. The model generates stylized prognoses: (i) under conditions of inefficient counterterror measures, terror groups enjoy longer period of activity but only if recruitment into terror groups remains low; high recruitment shortens the period of terror activity (ii) highly efficient counterterror measures effectively contain terror activity, but only if recruitment remains low. Thus, highly efficient counterterror measures can effectively contain terrorism if recruitment remains restrained. We conclude that the trajectory of the dynamics between counterterror measures and terror activity is …
Could The United States Reinstitute An Official Torture Policy?, Adam D. Jacobson
Could The United States Reinstitute An Official Torture Policy?, Adam D. Jacobson
Journal of Strategic Security
In 2015, the United States passed legislation that reaffirmed its ban on using torture and abusive techniques in national security interrogations. However, the Republican president-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to revive torture as official policy, and the idea of torturing suspected terrorists is popular with the American public. Given these facts, what are the vulnerabilities within the current prohibition that makes a return to an official torture policy possible? This paper examines the weaknesses within each branch of government and other factors that could contribute to making a return to official torture by the United States more likely. It …
Measuring The Popular Resonance Of Daesh’S Propaganda, William M. Marcellino, Kim Cragin, Joshua Mendelsohn, Andrew Micahel Cady, Madeline Magnuson, Kathleen Reedy
Measuring The Popular Resonance Of Daesh’S Propaganda, William M. Marcellino, Kim Cragin, Joshua Mendelsohn, Andrew Micahel Cady, Madeline Magnuson, Kathleen Reedy
Journal of Strategic Security
We describe an innovative approach to social media analysis, combining corpus linguists and statistical methods to measure the resonance of Daesh's propaganda to a sample population (Eqypt). The findings from this research effort demonstrate that: (1) Daesh's messaging is measurable and distinct from other Salafi groups, such as the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood; (2) while Daesh’s messaging generally do not resonate with Egyptians, its uptake increased in Upper Egypt and the Sinai regions during 2014; and (3) this method can be applied more broadly to measure the spread of violent extremist messaging across regional populations over time.
Continuity And Change In The Operational Dynamics Of The Islamic State, James L. Regens, Nick Mould
Continuity And Change In The Operational Dynamics Of The Islamic State, James L. Regens, Nick Mould
Journal of Strategic Security
In this article we estimate the influence of leadership changes on the operational dynamics associated with terrorist attacks conducted by the Islamic State and its predecessors. Because the focus of our research is empirical, the study uses data for 2,131 successful attacks between October 2002 and December 2014 to examine differentials in operational tempo, attack severity, primary tactics employed, and principal targets. The data are aggregated on a monthly basis to estimate the probabilities associated with specific attack sequences in terms of the following primary tactics: (1) firearms, (2) explosives, (3) hostage-taking/kidnapping, and (4) attacks involving combinations of (1), (2), …