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Between Extinction And Hubris: A Dialectical Approach To Ai Risk, Control, And Governance, Elise Annett, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

This Strategic Insights article looks at risks associated with autonomous artificial intelligence systems and the challenges they pose for human control and institutional governance. Dr. Annett and Dr. Giordano argue that near-term risks stem not only from advancing AI capabilities but also from the progressive transfer of human decision-making and agency to AI systems, particularly in military and intelligence contexts. They propose an adaptive governance framework emphasizing continuous testing and evaluation, meaningful human control, clear accountability, graduated autonomy thresholds, independent oversight, and international norms for high-risk AI applications.

War And Power: Who Wins Wars—And Why, Frank Hoffman

Joint Force Quarterly

Frank Hoffman reviews Phillips Payson O’Brien’s War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why, which proposes a multidimensional framework for assessing national power and explaining military outcomes. O’Brien argues that success in war depends on more than the size of a state’s armed forces or inventories of weapons. His concept of “Full Spectrum Powers” evaluates five interacting elements: economic and technological strength, political leadership, social and governmental structures, military effectiveness, and alliances. Drawing on conflicts including the world wars, the Cold War, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Russo-Ukraine War, the book examines how states generate, adapt, and sustain military power. …

Training For Victory: U.S. Special Forces Advisory Operations From El Salvador To Afghanistan, Tobias Bernard Switzer

Joint Force Quarterly

Tobias Bernard Switzer reviews Frank K. Sobchak’s Training for Victory: U.S. Special Forces Advisory Operations from El Salvador to Afghanistan, a comparative study of efforts to build host-nation special operations forces in El Salvador, Colombia, the Philippines, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Sobchak evaluates five factors that may influence advisory outcomes: consistency in advisor pairing, language proficiency, partner-to-advisor ratios, authority to organize host-nation units, and combat advising. He finds that advisors’ ability to organize partner forces is most strongly associated with combat effectiveness, while language proficiency is less decisive than commonly assumed. Switzer interprets these factors as measures of two broader …

“Creating The Point Of The Spear”: The Deployment Of Kitty Hawk (Cv-63) As An Afloat Forward Staging Base During Operation Enduring Freedom, Justin B. Blanton

Joint Force Quarterly

On 27 September 2001, Kitty Hawk (CV-63) received orders to deploy to the northern Arabian Sea to serve as an afloat forward staging base for joint special operations forces (SOF) tasked with conducting raids into Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), the U.S. military response to the terrorist attacks of 11 September. In order to accommodate the SOF, the aging, large-deck carrier reconfigured to deploy with fewer than 20 aircraft: Eight F/A-18Cs, three S-3Bs, two C-2As, and two SH-60F/HH-60H Seahawks. On 1 October Kitty Hawk departed Yokosuka, Japan, transited to Masirah Island, Oman, and embarked Task Force Sword, …

Disjointed Command And Air Domain Challenges In Alaska: The Case For A Single U.S. Combined/Joint Force Air Component Commander, Jeffrey W. Kempff

Joint Force Quarterly

The current command and control (C2) organizational structure over the air domain in Alaska is fragmented and doctrinally inconsistent, undermining homeland defense and reducing wartime lethality. Disjointed roles between the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and the United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM)—particularly in the Alaska Theater of Operations (AKTO) and Alaska NORAD Region Area of Operations (ANR AO)—create gaps in unity of command and effort, especially within the air component. This article examines Alaska's fractured air domain organization and command relationships, illustrating operational ambiguity, duplicative efforts, and inconsistencies that delay decision-making. It proposes a focused, near-term solution: unify the …

Mission Over Bureaucracy: Special Operations Command’S Warrior-Driven Model For Defense Innovation, Robert D. Seader

Joint Force Quarterly

In an era of accelerating technological change, military organizations must rapidly develop and field new capabilities to maintain battlefield superiority. Traditional defense acquisition processes, optimized for peacetime oversight and risk avoidance, now take four times longer than in the 1950s, threatening to undermine military effectiveness against rapidly modernizing adversaries. This paper examines how the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) has pioneered a fundamentally different acquisition approach that delivers new capabilities in months rather than the decades typical of conventional programs.

Through extensive interviews with senior acquisition leaders, this analysis identifies three core elements of USSOCOM’s success: a mission-centric culture …

Building The Mental Golden Dome: Arming The Joint Force For Defensive Cognitive Warfare, James Davitch

Joint Force Quarterly

Modern conflict increasingly hinges on mental strength, yet current military thinking lacks a clear defense for the mind. This article introduces a vital new concept: protecting military personnel from an adversary's attempts to distort their perceptions, disorient their judgment, and degrade their decision-making. Building on established research into behavioral psychology, the essay integrates this defense into existing military functions, proposing practical steps. It offers a precise explanation of this protective strategy, suggests pre-deployment exercises for joint personnel, and outlines ways to measure effectiveness even under pressure. A detailed, multi-year plan describes how to update joint doctrine, create training programs, and …

Determining Operational Objectives, Milan Vego

Joint Force Quarterly

Full knowledge and understanding of the true meaning of operational objectives are the main prerequisites for sound planning and execution of major operations A major operations (on land, at sea, in the air) is aimed at accomplishing a single operational objective. They can be conducted predominantly by a single service or two or more services. A campaign in a high-intensity conventional war consists of a series of related major/joint operations (on land, in the air, at sea) plus numerous tactical actions aimed to achieve a single military- or theater-strategic objective. Yet despite their importance, relatively little attention is …

From Data To Victory: The Race For Analytic Superiority In Warfare, Robert Grossman, Emily Goldman

Joint Force Quarterly

Artificial intelligence technologies have reached a tipping point after decades of development. They are diffusing widely across defense and national security applications. Twenty-first century warfighters rely on analytic models in all systems, at all echelons, and in all domains. As more powerful models built on ever larger data sets become ubiquitous, militaries are in a new competition to deploy artificial intelligence. Operational art must embrace “analytic superiority.” This is the operational advantage from collecting and ingesting data, building robust models and computing infrastructure, deploying the models into operational systems, and denying adversaries' ability to do the same

This article explains …

Joint Force Quarterly, Issue 120, 3rd Quarter 2026, National Defense University Press

Joint Force Quarterly

Joint Force Quarterly 120, 3rd Quarter 2026, focuses on contemporary defense strategy, joint warfighting, professional military education, operational innovation, and military sustainment. The issue opens with Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge A. Colby’s discussion of the logic underlying the 2026 National Defense Strategy and an executive summary reflecting on the 40th anniversary of the Goldwater-Nichols Act and the future of jointness. Forum articles address analytic superiority in warfare, the development of operational objectives, and new evidence concerning the Lavelle Affair. Contributions on joint professional military education explore defensive cognitive warfare, strategist development, and cyberspace collaboration for homeland defense. …

Educating For Advantage: Reimagining The National Security S&T Workforce As A Strategic Imperative, Elise Annett, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

This Strategic Insights post focuses on the workforce provisions of the National Security Science and Technology Strategy (NSSTS). It argues that U.S. technological leadership depends not only on advances in critical technologies but also on the nation’s ability to cultivate, retain, and mobilize skilled talent. Dr. Annett and Dr. Giordano describe education, research, industry, and national security as interconnected parts of a talent-development system that must translate scientific knowledge into operational and strategic advantage. They emphasize the need to strengthen science, technology, engineering, and mathematics education; expand artificial intelligence literacy across disciplines; connect students with national security careers; and align …

The People’S Liberation Army In A New Era: Individuals, Ideas, And Influence, Joel Wuthnow, Derek Grossman, Phillip C. Saunders, Andrew Scobell, Andrew N.D. Yang

Books

The People’s Liberation Army in a New Era: Individuals, Ideas, and Influence assesses how China’s military has changed under Xi Jinping and the extent to which those changes reflect his leadership versus longer-term institutional trends. The volume addresses PLA modernization, organizational reform, political control, joint operations, deterrence, artificial intelligence, officer careers and training, Taiwan, China-Russia military exercises, military aid, and overseas security activities. It argues that while Xi has played a major role in shaping the PLA, many developments build on earlier reforms, enduring strategic priorities, and institutional practices.

Cognitive Warfare And The Brain-As-Battlespace: Neuroscience, Artificial Intelligence, And The Emerging Domain Of Neurostrategic Competition, James Giordano, Robert Schmidle

Strategic Insights

The human brain is becoming a consequential arena of strategic competition. This commentary looks at how cognitive warfare draws on the neural processes underlying perception, emotion, trust, identity, judgment, and decision-making to influence individual and collective behavior. It describes how existing beliefs, biases, social affiliations, and information environments shape the way people interpret and respond to competing narratives, making natural cognitive processes potential targets for exploitation. Dr. Giordano and Dr. Schmidle trace how advances in neuroscience, artificial intelligence, big-data analytics, neurotechnology, and behavioral modeling are expanding the ability to assess and potentially influence cognition. Particular attention is given to population …

Decision Advantage In Cognitive Warfare, Part 2, John Murray, Elise Annett, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

Part Two of "Decision Advantage in Cognitive Warfare" advances the concept of temporal synchronization by considering how human and machine functions can be allocated across the military decision cycle. John Murray, Dr. Elise Annett, and Dr. James Giordano propose assigning speed-bound functions to AI systems operating under human direction while preserving human judgment, accountability, and decision authority. This model enables more persistent observation and contextual integration as informational, behavioral, and social conditions continue to change during the decision cycle. The authors assert that decision advantage depends not only on speed, but also on maintaining alignment between institutional understanding and the …

Decision Advantage In Cognitive Warfare, Part 1, John Murray, Elise Annett, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

This commentary considers how artificial intelligence and rapidly evolving information environments are changing the conditions for military decision advantage. Building on the OODA loop and the expanded dOODAc framework, the authors argue that effective decision-making depends not only on speed and accuracy, but also on maintaining alignment between institutional cognition and an operational environment that continues to change during the decision cycle. The article introduces temporal synchronization as an important dimension of decision advantage in cognitive warfare, highlighting the challenge of keeping military decisions relevant as informational, behavioral, psychological, and social conditions evolve.

Neurint In The Age Of Generative Agentic Ai: A Proposed Paradigm For Left-Of-Bang Strategic Deterrence, James Giordano, Elise Annett

Strategic Insights

This commentary focuses on how neurocognitive intelligence, or NEURINT, could be operationalized through generative agentic artificial intelligence to strengthen anticipatory intelligence and left-of-bang deterrence. NEURINT combines neuroscience, psychology, behavioral science, computational modeling, and traditional intelligence to better understand the cognitive, emotional, cultural, and organizational factors shaping adversary decision-making. This piece looks at how agentic AI, large-scale data integration, cognitive digital twins, and probabilistic forecasting could help intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance identify behavioral patterns, escalation thresholds, vulnerabilities, and potential intervention points before hostile activity becomes operational. It also emphasizes that AI should augment and not replace human analysts. Human judgment, ethical …

Irregular Warfare, Part Two: Ai Approaches, Implications, And Proposed Recommendations, James Giordano, Jocelyn Garcia

Strategic Insights

Part Two of "Irregular Warfare" looks at how artificial intelligence is transforming irregular warfare through AI-enabled, non-kinetic influence operations that target perception, trust, morale, and decision-making. State adversaries employ AI-driven cognitive and information operations below the threshold of kinetic conflict to shape strategic outcomes, exploit societal vulnerabilities, and challenge allied cohesion. This commentary also assesses the implications of AI-enabled irregular warfare for military readiness, cognitive resilience, operational planning, and strategic competition, and provides recommendations for how the Department of War can strengthen preparedness against emerging cognitive and information threats.

Irregular Warfare, Part One: Updating The Term And The Toolkit, Jocelyn Garcia, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

Irregular warfare (IW) is evolving in response to advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies. This commentary is about how IW should no longer be understood solely as violent conflict between state and non-state actors, but as a broader spectrum of kinetic and non-kinetic activities operating across cognitive, informational, cyber, and sociopolitical domains. AI is amplifying influence operations, disinformation campaigns, cyber activities, and cognitive targeting by increasing their speed, scale, accessibility, and deniability. AI-enabled irregular warfare can also degrade public trust, weaken decision-making, and undermine military readiness and allied cohesion. There is a need for updated definitions, clearer strategic …

Losing The Loop: A Model For Human Operational Involvement Part Two: A Proposed System Toward A Solution, Elise Annett, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

As artificial intelligence systems assume greater levels of autonomy, human judgment is increasingly displaced from the point of decision-making. Part Two of "Losing thee Loop" builds on prior analysis by identifying how autonomy constrains human engagement and proposing a structured model to address these effects. Meaningful human involvement must be actively designed and sustained, requiring the ability to interrogate system outputs, understand decision processes, and intervene when necessary. Dr. Elise Annett and Dr. James Giordano introduce the Synthesized Command and Control (SYNTHComm) model, which integrates human judgment with machine speed through enforced engagement, transparency, and accountability. The analysis demonstrates that …

Losing The Loop: Iteratively Autonomous Artificial Intelligence And The Question Of Human Operational Involvement, Elise Annett, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

As AI systems evolve from analytic tools to iteratively autonomous systems, they assume greater roles in filtering information, structuring decision pathways, and shaping operational outcomes. This transition alters human involvement, moving operators from direct decision-makers to supervisors, while distributing authority across designers, commanders, and operators. Growing reliance on AI introduces cognitive and behavioral shifts, including reduced critical scrutiny and increased dependence on machine-generated outputs. These dynamics can create self-reinforcing decision loops in which AI-generated data and assessments are recursively validated without sufficient grounding in real-world conditions. Such conditions risk obscuring attribution, degrading command and control, and increasing the likelihood of …

Cognitive Warfare And The Changing Character Of Engagement: A Neurostrategic Perspective, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

This commentary explains how cognitive warfare goes beyond traditional information and psychological operations. Instead of trying to change what people think, it focuses on how they think - such as shaping perception, judgment, and decision-making using advances in neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and data. Dr. Giordano argues that the human mind is becoming a key battleground in modern conflict. These approaches can affect individuals and societies by weakening decision-making, trust, and cohesion. As a result, conflict is increasingly defined by the ability to influence thinking and behavior, raising important strategic and ethical questions for future military operations.

Defining The Palette Of Biodeterrence: Appreciating A Broader Toolkit, Diane Dieuliis, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

Biological threats present unique challenges to traditional deterrence models due to their dual-use nature, difficulties in attribution, and rapidly evolving scientific landscape. In this commentary, the authors argue that deterrence by denial, while essential, is insufficient on its own to address contemporary biothreats. They propose a broader framework that integrates deterrence by disruption and capability diminishment to interfere with and reduce adversaries’ ability to develop and employ biological weapons. This approach emphasizes coordinated efforts across scientific, technological, economic, intelligence, and policy domains, as well as collaboration with public health and international partners. By shaping the conditions under which biological weapons …

Biodeterrence In An Era Of Convergent Threats, James Giordano

Strategic Insights

This commentary examines the growing need for a comprehensive biodeterrence strategy in response to the convergence of biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and cross-domain warfare capabilities. Dr. Giordano argues that advances in life sciences, combined with the activities of peer competitors, are transforming the biological domain into a contested strategic space where biological effects intersect with other forms of warfare. Traditional biodefense approaches are no longer sufficient. Instead, this piece calls for an integrated biodeterrence framework that combines biosurveillance, intelligence, public health, and operational planning. Recommendations include developing a Department of War–wide biodeterrence strategy, expanding detection and attribution capabilities, strengthening biotechnology intelligence, …

U.S. Arctic Sea Lines Of Communication (Sloc): The Imperative For A Maritime Complex And Corridor In The Bering Region, Samuel A. Krakower, Troy J. Bouffard

Joint Force Quarterly

This paper examines the current American capacity to defend its newfound Sea Lines of Communication in the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans. The history, and importance, of Sea Lines of Communication trace back to great naval strategists such as Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan and Sir Julian Corbett, and consistent protection of these maritime corridors in times of war and peace led to the success of the United States. As the Arctic Region emerges as a new theater of geopolitical importance, the United States finds itself significantly disadvantaged or "strategically handicapped” in terms of presence, capability, and proximity to defend …

The Cyber Deterrence Dilemma: Parallels Between Cyber And Intelligence Special Operations, Jorge R. Kravetz Msc

Joint Force Quarterly

The dilemma of cyber deterrence, alongside its potential failures, has gained increasing academic attention, though its parallels with traditional special operations remain less examined. Cyber and special operations—often covert activities involving espionage, sabotage, and subversion, generally linked to strategic or military intelligence—typically evade standard deterrence mechanisms. Drawing on a theoretical framework of deterrence, academic literature, historical cases, and qualitative analyses, this article argues that deterrence tends to fail when deterrers manage to destabilize an adversary without causing significant strategic impacts on the target’s power, economic, or social dynamics, as well as on international relations. Retaliation, shaped by implicit agreements or …

Political Objectives, Nuclear Forces, And The Enduring Value Of U.S. Intercontinental-Range Ballistic Missiles, Michaela Dodge

Joint Force Quarterly

"Political Objectives, Nuclear Forces, and the Enduring Value of U.S. Intercontinental-Range Ballistic Missiles" by Michaela Dodge examines two critical components of contemporary U.S. and Ukrainian security strategy: the enduring value of U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and the structure and operational evolution of Ukrainian special forces. ICBMs remain the most responsive leg of the U.S. nuclear triad, providing deterrence against nuclear and conventional threats, assuring allies, and supporting strategic flexibility in an era of rising nuclear competition from Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Despite aging systems and modernization challenges, ICBMs continue to underpin U.S. national security. At the same …

A Primer On Ukrainian Special Forces: Beyond Joint, Kevin D. Stringer, Taisiia Vivdych

Joint Force Quarterly

"A Primer on Ukrainian Special Forces: Beyond Joint" by Kevin D. Stringer and Taisiia Vivdych examines the evolution, structure, and operations of Ukrainian special operations forces (SOF), highlighting key distinctions from U.S. and NATO models. Tracing their lineage from Soviet spetsnaz to contemporary formations, it analyzes the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces Command (USOFCOM), State Security Service’s Special Operations Center Alfa (SOCA), Rapid Response Corps (KORD), the 10th Separate Operational Response Unit (DOZOR), Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) units, and the volunteer Kraken Regiment under the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR). Ukrainian SOF are dispersed across military, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies, …

Breadth Or Depth: The Ongoing Battle In Professional Military Education, Ryan Wadle, Heather Venable

Joint Force Quarterly

This article examines the ongoing and oftentimes heated debates on the curricula in Professional Military Education institutions and the guidance provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. By studying the "breadth" of conflict and the national security environment, PME graduates can best apply their knowledge and skills at the intersection of military strategy and political objectives where they can be the most effective.

Cognitive Warfare And Organizational Design: Leveraging Ai To Reshape Military Decision-Making, Michael Silver, Kellen Sick, Matthew Snyder, Justin Farnell, Justin E. Farnell

Joint Force Quarterly

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) is transforming modern warfare, particularly in decision-making. To maintain its strategic edge, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) must accelerate AI/ML adoption within its decision-making. This paper examines the organizational design factors that influence AI/ML integration in the Joint Force, applying a modified Star Model framework that includes People, Structure, Processes, Incentives, and Leadership & Management.

Effective AI/ML adoption is not just a technological challenge, but a behavioral and organizational one. Possessing AI tools alone is insufficient; realizing their full potential requires adapting how …

Fabrication At The Tactical Edge, Aubry J. Eaton, Dustin T. Thomas

Joint Force Quarterly

This research reviews empirical evidence of rapid battlefield fabrication efforts and proposes potential new uses of this technology. It recommends that the joint force must undergo a paradigm shift to view battlefield manufacturing as an inherent component of force projection with potentially decisive impact across the spectrum of conflict. It proposes a doctrinal concept for Fabrication At The Tactical Edge (FATE), defining the technologies that enable this concept. FATE offsets adversary capabilities by imposing asymmetric costs while making U.S. forces difficult to predict. Unlike prior studies on military innovation, this research focuses on manufacturing itself as a weapon system. If …