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Short-Term Forecasts Of The Covid-19 Epidemic In Guangdong And Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020, Kimberly Roosa, Yiseul Lee, Ruiyan Luo, Alexander Kirpich, Richard Rothenberg, J. M. Hyman, Ping Yan, Gerardo Chowell
Short-Term Forecasts Of The Covid-19 Epidemic In Guangdong And Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020, Kimberly Roosa, Yiseul Lee, Ruiyan Luo, Alexander Kirpich, Richard Rothenberg, J. M. Hyman, Ping Yan, Gerardo Chowell
Public Health Faculty Publications
The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, …