Digital Commons Network^™

Predicting The Deforestation–Trend Under Different Carbon–Prices, Georg E. Kindermann, Michael Obersteiner, Ewald Rametsteiner, Ian Mccallcum

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Papers

Background: Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact. Results: Baseline scenario …