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Yamhill-Carlton School District Enrollment Forecast 2019-20 To 2028-29, Charles Rynerson

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Yamhill-Carlton School District (LOSD). The study includes population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, and forecasts of district‐wide school enrollments for the 2019‐20 to 2028‐29 school years. Following are some of the highlights found in this report:

• Population and Housing Trends
• Housing and Enrollment
• Enrollment Trends
• Enrollment Forecasts

Oregon Demographic Trends, Charles Rynerson

Publications, Reports and Presentations

This presentation was part of a session called "Demographic Change: Potential Impact in Oregon and the Workplace." Nick Beleiciks, State of Oregon Employment Department Economist, was a co-presenter in the session.

Knappa School District Enrollment Forecast 2018-19 To 2027-28, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents district-wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Knappa School District for the 20 year period between 2007-08 and 2027-28. The report also includes the population, housing, social and economic profile Knappa School District 1 as well as the 2000 and 2010 census profile for the school district.

Portland Public Schools Enrollment Forecasts, 2018-19 To 2032-33: Based On October 2017 Enrollments, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Joshua Ollinger

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for Portland Public Schools (PPS). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the number of PPS students by housing type, and annual forecasts of enrollment for a 15 year horizon, from 2018‐19 to 2032‐33. Enrollment forecasts were prepared under high, middle, and low scenarios for the District. Forecasts for attendance areas by place of residence and for individual schools are consistent with the middle district‐wide forecast.

Coordinated Population Forecast For Crook County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Crook County’s total population grew solidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .9%; however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced faster population growth. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period.

Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Coos County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Coos County’s total population had minimal growth in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Lakeside, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period.

The population growth that did occur in Coos County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Harney County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Harney County’s total population declined in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent; however, the Hines UGB experienced slight population growth during this same period, posting an average annual growth rate of 0.2 percent. The Burns UGB experienced a growth rate of -0.7 percent, which is below that of the county as a whole.

Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of net out-migration. …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Curry County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Curry County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .6%. Nearly all of Curry County’s sub-areas followed the same pattern of faster growth between 2000 and 2010, and a slightly slower rate from 2010 to 2018. Although negligible, Port Orford was the only UGB with an average annual growth rate that has increased from 2000 to 2010 rate (0.3 percent), to the 2010 to …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Deschutes County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Deschutes County’s total population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of just over 3 percent between 2000 and 2010. During this period, significant growth occurred within the urban growth boundaries. The UGBs of Sisters and La Pine posted the highest average annual growth rates at 7.8 and 6.3 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period while areas outside the UGBs experienced an aggregate average annual …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Jefferson County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Jefferson County’s total population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3 percent between 2000 and 2010; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster or slower population growth. The Culver UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period, while all other sub-areas experienced average annual growth rates at or below that of the county as a whole. …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Douglas County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Douglas County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .7%; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth. Canyonville experienced the fastest growth of any UGB, with an average annual growth rate of 3 percent. Only two UGBs, Oakland and Reedsport, saw a slight population decline.

Douglas County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result of sporadic net in-migration. An …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Jackson County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Jackson County’s total population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of just over 1 percent; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population. Central Point and Eagle Point posted the highest average annual growth rates at 2.9 and 5.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period, while Jacksonville and Shady Cove also experienced growth rates above that of the county as a whole. All other …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Josephine County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Josephine County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of slightly less than 1 percent between 2000 and 2010; however, its sub-areas experienced faster population growth. Cave Junction and Grants Pass posted average annual growth rates of 2.1 and 1.6 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period while the area outside of the UGBs experienced negligible growth.

Josephine County’s positive population growth in the …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Klamath County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Klamath County’s total population grew slowly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .4%; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population. Malin posted the highest average annual growth rate at 2.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period, while all other sub-areas experienced average annual growth rates at or below that of the county as a whole.

Klamath County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the …

Coordinated Population Forecast For Lake County, Its Urban Growth Boundaries (Ugb), And Area Outside Ugbs 2018-2068, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Nicholas Chun, Kevin Rancik, Rhey Haggerty, Joshua Ollinger, Charles Rynerson

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole.

Lake County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .6%; however, its UGBs experienced population decline. Lakeview and Paisley posted average annual growth rates at -1.2 and -0.2 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period while the area outside of the UBGs experienced an average annual growth rate of 2.3 percent.

Lake County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was largely the result …

Portland Msa Economic & Population Outlook April 2018, Portland State University, Northwest Economic Research Center, Thomas Potiowsky

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

NERC's biannual forecast of employment, income, housing permits, and house prices for the Portland MSA. The April release also includes the annual forecast of population and households.

Central Point School District 6 Enrollment Forecast Update 2018-19 To 2027-28, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Nicholas Chun, Joshua Ollinger

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for Central Point School District 6 (CPSD) for the 10 year period between 2018‐19 and 2027‐28. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle series are also presented for the 10 year period.

Oregon City School District Enrollment Forecasts 2018-19 To 2027-28, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Scott Stewart

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report presents a range of three scenarios of district‐wide enrollment forecasts by grade level for the Oregon City School District (OCSD) for the 10 year period between 2018‐19 and 2027‐28. Each enrollment forecast scenario is related to population forecasts that incorporate different assumptions about growth within the District, with the primary differences being the contribution of net migration to the District’s population and age distribution. Individual school forecasts consistent with the middle range scenario are also presented for the 10 year period.

Tigard-Tualatin School District Enrollment Forecast Update 2018-19 To 2027-28, Portland State University. Population Research Center, Charles Rynerson, Joshua Ollinger

School District Enrollment Forecast Reports

This report just includes the tables for the enrollment forecast conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the Tigard‐Tualatin School District (TTSD).