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The Velocity Of Us M2 In The 1990s: Some Further Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury, Mark Wheeler
The Velocity Of Us M2 In The 1990s: Some Further Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury, Mark Wheeler
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper investigates the behaviour of M2 velocity in recent years with special emphasis on the post-1989 period. Unlike previous studies in this area, M2 velocity is analysed in the context of a small vector autoregressive (VAR) model which includes income, prices, interest rates, and money growth volatility. The hypothesis of a structural shift in M2 velocity associated with the post-1989 period is rejected by the VAR model. This suggests that the unusual behaviour of M2 velocity since 1989 may be traced to the variability in its determinants, rather than to a shift in the process generating velocity. Variance decompositions …
Is Money More Productive In A Developing Economy?, Abdur Chowdhury, Yingqui Liu
Is Money More Productive In A Developing Economy?, Abdur Chowdhury, Yingqui Liu
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper tests the frequently cited hypothesis that money is more productive in a developing economy relative to a developed economy. Output elasticity of money is estimated for 20 countries over the 1977-92 sample period. These countries represent various stages of economic development. Two important conclusions can be derived from the results. First, irrespective of the monetary aggregate employed, the output elasticity of money is extremely low for all 20 countries. Second, the elasticity figure is sensitive neither to the stage of economic development in a particular country nor the period of time under consideration. Consequently, it can be argued …
The Demand For Money In A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Switzerland, Abdur Chowdhury
The Demand For Money In A Small Open Economy: The Case Of Switzerland, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the demand for money in Switzerland in the context of an open economy. It considers the general process of financial asset substitution and tests for the relevance of an exchange rate and a foreign interest rate variable in a conventional money demand equation. The results show that the variables entering into the demand for either monetary base or narrow money equation may not form a cointegrated system unless the exchange rate or foreign interest rate variable is included. This provides support to both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses.
The Behavior Of Closed-End Country Fund Prices In The Asian Nies, Abdur Chowdhury
The Behavior Of Closed-End Country Fund Prices In The Asian Nies, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper tests the impact of international investment restrictions on closed-end country funds in four Asian countries - Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. The results show that the relationship between the premiums or discounts on closed-end country funds and announcements of changes in investment restrictions is sensitive to how individual countries respond to foreign innovations. A strong relationship exists in countries with large restrictions on investment - Korea and Taiwan. However, the relationship seems to break down in countries where there are virtually no restrictions on investment - Hong Kong and Singapore.
Political Surfing Over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing In India, Abdur Chowdhury
Political Surfing Over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing In India, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper develops a political-economic interaction model for India for the 1960-91 sample period. India presents an ideal case for testing the political business cycle theory in the context of a parliamentary democracy with endogenous election timing. Using a mixed qualitative and continuous variable simultaneous equation estimation procedure, the paper considers the two-way interaction that results from the control by the cabinet over election timing. Several conclusions can be derived from this study. First, the results indicate the presence of business cycle-electoral interaction in India. Second, there is strong support for the surfing hypothesis, implying that the Indian cabinet tends …
The Infant Mortality-Fertility Debate: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury
The Infant Mortality-Fertility Debate: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Mean Reverting Behavior Of Stock Returns: Evidence From A Panel Of Asian And Pacific Basin Countries, Abdur Chowdhury
Mean Reverting Behavior Of Stock Returns: Evidence From A Panel Of Asian And Pacific Basin Countries, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This study uses the seemingly-unrelated regression method in panel data to test for the mean-reversion behavior in stock returns in eight Asian and Pacific Basin markets: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. The empirical evidence suggests that an investor cannot use the information contained in stock performances in precious periods to consistently earn abnormal profits. A fundamental implication of the efficient market theory is that successive security returns are serially independent. Hence the empirical evidence is consistent with the spirit of the efficiency market theory. This would suggest a hands-off approach for the policy-makers with regard …
Review Of The Awakening Of The Soviet Union By Geoffrey Hosking, Abdur Chowdhury
Review Of The Awakening Of The Soviet Union By Geoffrey Hosking, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Futures Market Efficiency: Evidence From Cointegration Tests, Abdur Chowdhury
Futures Market Efficiency: Evidence From Cointegration Tests, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
(Wp 2011-04) Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2011-04) Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India. Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty. With Granger causality running both ways, the Friedman-Ball and Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses hold simultaneously in India. It provides strong support to the notion of an opportunistic …
A Note On Dominant Influence Of Fiscal Actions, Abdur Chowdhury
A Note On Dominant Influence Of Fiscal Actions, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Monetary And Fiscal Policy As A Stabilization Tool: The Case Of Korea And Turkey, Abdur Chowdhury
Monetary And Fiscal Policy As A Stabilization Tool: The Case Of Korea And Turkey, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Margin Requirement And Stock Market Volatility In Thailand, Abdur Chowdhury
Margin Requirement And Stock Market Volatility In Thailand, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The use of margin requirements as a potential policy tool for controlling sudden stock price changes and market volatility has attracted considerable attention in the developed stock markets. However, no consensus has emerged regarding the significance of the impact of changes in margin requirement of the stock market. The existing analyses are extended to test the impact of changes in margin requirements on stock prices in an emerging stock market. Using recent data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand, margin requirements are demonstrated to have an important impact on the behaviour of stock prices. Increases (decreases) in margin requirements usually …
Banking Reform In Russia: Winds Of Change?, Abdur Chowdhury
Banking Reform In Russia: Winds Of Change?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Only a successful implementation of an overall reform program will enable Russian banks to provide financial intermediation and assist in the country's development from a nascent market economy to a mature financial system. The chances for reform are better now than at any time during the last decade. Favorable political and economic conditions and a change in attitude among bank management have created an unusual window of opportunity. The paper analyzes the past performance of the Russian banking industry, evaluates the reform agenda of the monetary authority, and argues for an overall reform program in order to seize the available …
Velocity And The Variability Of Money Growth: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury
Velocity And The Variability Of Money Growth: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Using data from four countries, the paper tests Friedman's hypothesis that the volatility of money growth causes velocity to change. Despite a wide variety of patterns in the movements of velocity in these countries, support is evident for the hypothesis.
Stock Market Interdependencies: Evidence From The Asian Nies, Abdur Chowdhury
Stock Market Interdependencies: Evidence From The Asian Nies, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
National asset markets have become more integrated in recent years. This paper investigates the interrelationship, if any, among the stock markets in four newly industrialized economies (NIEs) in Asia. The results indicate that a significant link exists between the stock markets of Hong Kong and Singapore and those of Japan and the United States. On the other hand, the markets with severe restrictions on cross-country investing, that is, Korea and Taiwan, are not responsive to innovations in foreign markets. Finally, the United States stock market influences, but is not influenced by, the four Asian markets.
Money In The Yugoslav Economy, Abdur Chowdhury, Stephen Grubaugh, Andrew Stollar
Money In The Yugoslav Economy, Abdur Chowdhury, Stephen Grubaugh, Andrew Stollar
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
Til Recession Do Us Part: Booms, Busts, And Divorce In The United States, Abdur Chowdhury
Til Recession Do Us Part: Booms, Busts, And Divorce In The United States, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
A general hypothesis regarding the impact of permanent income levels and business cycle fluctuations on divorce rate at the state level in the United States is analysed in this article. Based on the data for 45 states over the sample period of 1978–2009, it is shown that the higher the level of transitory income, the higher the incidence of divorce. In other words, divorce is pro-cyclical.
The Impact Of Financial Openness On Economic Integration: Evidence From Europe And The Cis, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
The Impact Of Financial Openness On Economic Integration: Evidence From Europe And The Cis, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We study whether financial openness facilitates the economic integration of formerly centrally planned economies with the EU-15. Two dimensions of economic integration are considered: cross-country convergence of per-capita incomes and bilateral trade in goods and services. We find that more financially open economies effectively catch-up faster and trade more with the EU-15. These integration-enhancing effects occur over and above any effect stemming from domestic financial deepening and other factors determining growth and trade.
Are Causal Relationships Sensitive To Causality Tests?, Abdur Chowdhury
Are Causal Relationships Sensitive To Causality Tests?, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
The Financial Structure And The Demand For Money In Thailand, Abdur Chowdhury
The Financial Structure And The Demand For Money In Thailand, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper uses recently developed econometric techniques to investigate the demand for money in Thailand. Initial estimates show the absence of any long-term, unique relationship among a monetary aggregate (M1 or M2), an income and a price variable. However, the introduction of an exchange rate in the above relationship shows the presence of a cointegrating relationship. This provides some support to McKinnon's hypothesis of currency substitution. It also raises some concern about the closed-economy focus of earlier studies on money demand in Thailand. Addition of a foreign interest variable to the above models provide some support to the …
"James Tobin (1918 -)", Abdur Chowdhury
Financing Reconstruction, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed Murshed
Financing Reconstruction, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed Murshed
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
(Wp 2011-07) Factoring Emerging Markets Into The Relationship Between Global Liquidity And Commodities, Steven Landgraf, Abdur Chowdhury
(Wp 2011-07) Factoring Emerging Markets Into The Relationship Between Global Liquidity And Commodities, Steven Landgraf, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
What caused the mid-2000s world commodity price “bubble” and the recent commodity price growth during the economic recovery after the 2007-2009 recession? The classical “supply and demand” interpretation offered by some observers suggests that rapid global industrial growth over the past decade – the so-called “demand channel” – is the key driver of price growth. Others have argued that recent bouts of commodity price growth were directly related to central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, injecting too much money or “liquidity” into the financial system. They assert that high commodity prices are a result of excessively loose monetary policy. …
Financial Innovations And The Interest Elasticity Of Money Demand In Canada, Abdur Chowdhury
Financial Innovations And The Interest Elasticity Of Money Demand In Canada, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
Using Canadian data for the period 1934-86, the paper empirically tests the Gurley-Shaw hypothesis that innovations in the financial markets raise the interest elasticity of money demand. The results provide sufficient evidence to reject the Gurley-Shaw hypothesis in Canada.
Non-Nested Tests Of Three Competing Theories Of Business Cycles, Abdur Chowdhury, James Mcgibany, Farrokh Nourzad
Non-Nested Tests Of Three Competing Theories Of Business Cycles, Abdur Chowdhury, James Mcgibany, Farrokh Nourzad
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper tests the Keynesian, new classical and real business-cycle theories against each other as non-nested hypotheses using quarterly data for the US covering the period 1959:1–1989:2. The results indicate that no one theory stands out as the dominant explanation of the business cycle. This contrasts with the findings of earlier work which is mostly concerned with testing the Keynesian against the new classical theory. We find that the introduction of a third theory, the real business-cycle theory which accounts of real factors, blurs the distinction between the demand-sided Keynesian, and the new classical theories.
A Causal Analysis Of Defense Spending And Economic Growth, Abdur Chowdhury
A Causal Analysis Of Defense Spending And Economic Growth, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
The purpose of this article is to investigate the causal relationship between economic growth and defense spending in fifty-five developing countries. Granger-causality tests are employed to analyze the presence and direction of causality between these two variables. Moreover, the study focuses upon the appropriate representation of the nature of nonstationarities apparent in these two economic time series across different countries. The results suggest that the relationship between defense spending and economic growth cannot be generalized across countries. The actual relationship may vary from one country to another due to the use of a different sample period, as well as differences …
Information Technology And Productivity Payoff In The Banking Industry: Evidence From The Emerging Markets, Abdur Chowdhury
Information Technology And Productivity Payoff In The Banking Industry: Evidence From The Emerging Markets, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
No abstract provided.
The Geographical Dimension Of The Development Effects Of Natural Resources, Abdur Chowdhury, Fabrizio Carmignani
The Geographical Dimension Of The Development Effects Of Natural Resources, Abdur Chowdhury, Fabrizio Carmignani
Abdur R. Chowdhury
We study the contribution of natural resource intensity to long-term development along different dimensions: per-capita income, institutional quality, and education. We allow natural resources to affect these dimensions differently in different regions of the world. The evidence suggests that natural resources are generally a positive driver of development, but in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) their contribution is almost negligible, if not even negative. We explain these cross-regional differences with the fact that in SSA more than anywhere else large resource endowments are combined with a particularly bad disease environment. Some historical evidence and formal econometric results support this hypothesis.
The Relationship Between The Inflation Rate And Its Variability: The Issues Reconsidered, Abdur Chowdhury
The Relationship Between The Inflation Rate And Its Variability: The Issues Reconsidered, Abdur Chowdhury
Abdur R. Chowdhury
This paper empirically reexamines the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the inflation rate and its variability. The sample consists of 66 countries for the 1955–85 sample period. Using pooled cross-section time series data, empirical tests are performed for nine different country-groupings ranging from the G–7 developed countries to a group of 10 developing Asian countries. Several important conclusions can be derived. First, irrespective of the variability measure employed, the results indicate the presence of a significant positive relationship between the inflation rate and its variability. This provides strong support to Okun's hypothesis. Second, this relationship is stronger during the …