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Metrics For Solar Wind Prediction Models: Comparison Of Empirical, Hybrid, And Physics‐Based Schemes With 8 Years Of L1 Observations, M. J. Owens, Harlan E. Spence, S. Mcgregor, W. J. Hughes, J. M. Quinn, C. N. Arge, P. Riley, J. Linker, D. Odstrcil

Physics & Astronomy

[1] Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. …