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Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Articles

2018

Climate change

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Quantifying Excess Deaths Related To Heatwaves Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Multicountry Time Series Modelling Study, Yuming Guo, Antonio Gasparrini, Shanshan Li, Francesco Sera, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Nascimento Saldiva, Éric Lavigne, Benjawan Tawatsupa, Kornwipa Punnasiri, Ala Overcenco, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Patrick J. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Honda, Yasushi Honda, Yasushi, Xerxes T. Seposo, Ho Young Kim, Aurelio Tobías, Carmen Iñiguez Fernández, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Yue Leon, Bing Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel D. Schwartz, Tranngoc Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Michelle L. Bell, Ben G. Armstrong, Ebi, Kristie L. Ebi, Kristie L., Shilu Tong Jan 2018

Quantifying Excess Deaths Related To Heatwaves Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Multicountry Time Series Modelling Study, Yuming Guo, Antonio Gasparrini, Shanshan Li, Francesco Sera, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Nascimento Saldiva, Éric Lavigne, Benjawan Tawatsupa, Kornwipa Punnasiri, Ala Overcenco, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Patrick J. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Honda, Yasushi Honda, Yasushi, Xerxes T. Seposo, Ho Young Kim, Aurelio Tobías, Carmen Iñiguez Fernández, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Yue Leon, Bing Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel D. Schwartz, Tranngoc Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Michelle L. Bell, Ben G. Armstrong, Ebi, Kristie L. Ebi, Kristie L., Shilu Tong

Articles

Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of …


Temperature-Related Mortality Impacts Under And Beyond Paris Agreement Climate Change Scenarios, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Veronika Huber, Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Dann Mitchell, Shilu Tong, Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Nascimento Saldiva, Éric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick J. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado-Díaz, Julio Gonzalez Cruz, Xerxes T. Seposo, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobías, Carmen Iñiguez Fernández, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Martina S. Ragettli, Martin Röösli, Yueleon Guo, Chang-Fu Wu, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel D. Schwartz, Michelle L. Bell, Tranngoc Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, C. Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Shakoor Hajat, Andrew Haines, London School Of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom London School Of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, Ben G. Armstrong, Kristie L. Ebi, Antonio Gasparrini Jan 2018

Temperature-Related Mortality Impacts Under And Beyond Paris Agreement Climate Change Scenarios, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Veronika Huber, Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Dann Mitchell, Shilu Tong, Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Nascimento Saldiva, Éric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick J. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado-Díaz, Julio Gonzalez Cruz, Xerxes T. Seposo, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobías, Carmen Iñiguez Fernández, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Martina S. Ragettli, Martin Röösli, Yueleon Guo, Chang-Fu Wu, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel D. Schwartz, Michelle L. Bell, Tranngoc Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, C. Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Shakoor Hajat, Andrew Haines, London School Of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom London School Of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, Ben G. Armstrong, Kristie L. Ebi, Antonio Gasparrini

Articles

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C^. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature …