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Simulation Research On Covid-19 Transmission And Control Measures Based On SeiIRd Model, Jing Wang, Ying Dong
Simulation Research On Covid-19 Transmission And Control Measures Based On SeiIRd Model, Jing Wang, Ying Dong
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: With the spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia around the world, the data and transmission mechanism are analyzed. The SEIiRD model is constructed based on the existing SEIRD model, and the infected population is divided into asymptomatic infections, mild infections, severe infections and critical infections. The impact of the transmission rate of different infected people on the development of the epidemic was analyzed. Simulation experiments were carried out on the basis of fitting real data, and it was found that the main infected populations that affected the discovery of the epidemic were asymptomatic and mildly infected. On …
Modeling And Simulation Of Emergency Medical Resources Allocation In Shanghai During Covid-19, Changjia Fan, Yanqiu Du, Liang Di, Hu Kai, Jiayan Huang
Modeling And Simulation Of Emergency Medical Resources Allocation In Shanghai During Covid-19, Changjia Fan, Yanqiu Du, Liang Di, Hu Kai, Jiayan Huang
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: Modeling and simulating on the allocation of emergency medical resources in Shanghai with COVID-19 is carried out. Based on the SEIR model of infectious diseases, combined with the process of outpatients visiting and inpatients treatment, a SEIOWHR(susceptible-exposed-infected-outpatients- waiting to hospitalized-hospitalized-removed) system dynamics model is established. If the Wuhan epidemic occurred in Shanghai, based on the model, the amount of emergency medical resources needed, the gap time of medical resources and the disease progression of patients who are waiting to hospitalized under the different supply of medical resources is simulated, and the key factors in the allocation of medical …
Evolutionary Simulation Of Medical Products Export Safety Supervision Considering Regulation Of Importing Country, Xiaoli Li, Cejun Cao, Fanshun Zhang
Evolutionary Simulation Of Medical Products Export Safety Supervision Considering Regulation Of Importing Country, Xiaoli Li, Cejun Cao, Fanshun Zhang
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: In order to investigate the impacts of the regulation of importing country on export safety supervision regarding medical products in the COVID-19 epidemic situation, an evolutionary game model considering the relation between export enterprise and supervision of government is constructed. Based on MATLAB simulation, the influences of different factors including regulation level of importing country, punishment mechanism on export safety supervision of medical products are analyzed. Results show that the illegal behaviors of the export enterprises of medical products can be restrained when the regulation level of importing country reaches a certain threshold. But that would fuel the passively …
Transmission Process Prediction Of Novel Coronavirus Based On System Dynamics, Xuepeng Lu, Shang Jiao, Junhui Zhao, Lulu Lü, Zhou Li
Transmission Process Prediction Of Novel Coronavirus Based On System Dynamics, Xuepeng Lu, Shang Jiao, Junhui Zhao, Lulu Lü, Zhou Li
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: The transmission characteristics of novel coronavirus is considered and a new SE4IR2 model based on the principle of system dynamics is proposed. The US epidemic data from June to November is used to set the isolation rate and other parameters, and the SE4IR2 model is used to fit, analyze and predict the development of the epidemic trend in the next stage. The empirical part uses the data from June to November in the United States to achieve the parameters of the SE4IR2 model, obtains the parameter values in December and January through the time series prediction model, and compares …
Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis In Risk Assessment Of Returning To School In The Post-Covid-19 Era, Haibin Li, Jialiang Wang, Haiyan Li
Uncertainty Quantitative Analysis In Risk Assessment Of Returning To School In The Post-Covid-19 Era, Haibin Li, Jialiang Wang, Haiyan Li
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: After the epidemic, taking the spread of the epidemic in returning to school as an example, a quantitative risk assessment study is conducted. Taking the activity trajectory description of the whole process of susceptible individuals from infection to isolation as a clue, an epidemiological model for risk assessment is established. The number of infected persons in the risk indicators of returning to school is quantified based on the quantified model parameters. According to the value characteristics of the parameters, the number of infected persons is taken as a function of discrete random variables. The probability distribution of the infected …
Prediction Of Epidemic Transmission And Evaluation Of Prevention And Control Measures Based On Artificial Society, Bin Chen, Yang Mei, Chuan Ai, Ma Liang, Zhengqiu Zhu, Hailiang Chen, Mengna Zhu, Xu Wei
Prediction Of Epidemic Transmission And Evaluation Of Prevention And Control Measures Based On Artificial Society, Bin Chen, Yang Mei, Chuan Ai, Ma Liang, Zhengqiu Zhu, Hailiang Chen, Mengna Zhu, Xu Wei
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: The COVID-19 has been controlled under the strict measures,but how to normalize it deserves in-depth study.The COVID-19 transmission model and the human contact network are established separately based on SEIR model and the artificial social scenario.With the support of the multi-agent computational experiment method,a large sample calculation experiment was performed on the Tianhe supercomputer to simulate the epidemic transmission in typical areas such as communities,schools,and workplaces in artificial cities,and to predict and evaluate the risk of epidemic spread after resumption of work and school.The results show that epidemic prevention and control must be prepared for a …
Modeling And Relevance Analysis Of Urban Epidemic Transmission And Work Resumption Intensity, Gan Mi, Yunyi Tian, Wenchang Zhang, Xihan Zhao
Modeling And Relevance Analysis Of Urban Epidemic Transmission And Work Resumption Intensity, Gan Mi, Yunyi Tian, Wenchang Zhang, Xihan Zhao
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: On the basis of multi-source big data, the model for analyzing the population migration changes and manpower gaps caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in 34 typical cities across the country is constructed , and the work resumption intensity of other cities is predicited by using the migration base constructed. The SEIR model is used to estimate the basic reproduction number in each city since the simulate results show that it can emulate the transmission trend of this epidemic accurately, and the retrospective matrix analysis of the work resumption intensity is combined with the manpower gap to summarize the anti-epidemic …