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Modeling The Influence Of Environment And Intervention On Cholera In Haiti, Stephen Tennenbaum, Caroline Freitag, Svetlana Roudenko

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

We propose a simple model with two infective classes in order to model the cholera epidemic in Haiti. We include the impact of environmental events (rainfall, temperature and tidal range) on the epidemic in the Artibonite and Ouest regions by introducing terms in the transmission rate that vary with environmental conditions. We fit the model on weekly data from the beginning of the epidemic until December 2013, including the vaccination programs that were recently undertaken in the Ouest and Artibonite regions. We then modified these projections excluding vaccination to assess the programs’ effectiveness. Using real-time daily rainfall, we found lag …