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Dynamic Statistical Models For Pyroclastic Density Current Generation At Soufrière Hills Volcano, Robert L. Wolpert, Elaine T. Spiller, Eliza S. Calder

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

To mitigate volcanic hazards from pyroclastic density currents, volcanologists generate hazard maps that provide long-term forecasts of areas of potential impact. Several recent efforts in the field develop new statistical methods for application of flow models to generate fully probabilistic hazard maps that both account for, and quantify, uncertainty. However, a limitation to the use of most statistical hazard models, and a key source of uncertainty within them, is the time-averaged nature of the datasets by which the volcanic activity is statistically characterized. Where the level, or directionality, of volcanic activity frequently changes, e.g., during protracted eruptive episodes, or at …