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Caviar And The Australian Stock Markets : An Appetiser, David E. Allen, A. K. Singh
Caviar And The Australian Stock Markets : An Appetiser, David E. Allen, A. K. Singh
Research outputs pre 2011
Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become the universally accepted metric adopted internationally under the Basel Accords for banking industry internal control and for regulatory reporting. This has focused attention on methods of measuring, estimating and forecasting lower tail risk. One promising technique is Quantile Regression which holds the promise of efficiently calculating (VAR). To this end, Engle and Manganelli in (2004) developed their CAViaR model (Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk). In this paper we apply their model to Australian Stock Market indices and a sample of stocks, and test the efficacy of four different specifications of the model in a set of …
The Role And Relevance Of Domain Knowledge, Perceptions Of Planning Importance, And Risk Tolerance In Predicting Savings Intentions, Peter Croy, Paul Gerrans, Craig Speelman
The Role And Relevance Of Domain Knowledge, Perceptions Of Planning Importance, And Risk Tolerance In Predicting Savings Intentions, Peter Croy, Paul Gerrans, Craig Speelman
Research outputs pre 2011
The need for individuals to increase retirement savings has been widely promoted, yet our understanding of the motivations of individuals to save at a higher rate remains sparse. This paper reports the findings of a survey of 2300 retirement savings fund members and their motivations to contribute more to savings and to actively manage their investment strategy. Utilising the theory of planned behavior, the study reveals respondent’s self-reported attitudes, subjective norms and perceptions of behavioral control account for a high proportion of the variance in behavioral intention. Contrary to expectations, the study finds that respondent’s risk tolerance adds little to …
Using Quantile Regression To Estimate Capital Buffer Requirements For Japanese Banks, David Allen, Robert Powell, Abhay Singh
Using Quantile Regression To Estimate Capital Buffer Requirements For Japanese Banks, David Allen, Robert Powell, Abhay Singh
Research outputs pre 2011
This paper investigates the impact of extreme fluctuations in bank asset values on the capital adequacy and default probabilities (PD) of Japanese Banks. We apply quantile regression analysis to the Merton structural credit model to measure how capital adequacy and PDs fluctuate over a 10 year period incorporating the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Quantile regressions allow modelling of the extreme quantiles of a distribution, as opposed to focussing on the mean, which allows measurement of capital and PDs at the most extreme points of an economic downturn. Understanding extreme risk is essential, as it is during these extreme circumstances when …
Financial Market Integration In The Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach, K.Y. Ho, Zhaoyong Zhang
Financial Market Integration In The Greater China Region: A Multivariate Asymmetric Approach, K.Y. Ho, Zhaoyong Zhang
Research outputs pre 2011
This paper examines the volatility dynamics of the greater China stock markets (Shanghai A- and B-shares, Shenzhen A- and B-shares, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) by employing a multivariate (tetravariate) framework that incorporates the features of asymmetries, persistence, and time-varying correlations, which are typically observed in stock markets of developed economies. Our results indicate that, unlike the Shenzhen and Shanghai Ashares, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets, the B-share markets do not exhibit significant asymmetric volatility (“leverage effect”), and return volatility in the A-share market is substantially higher than the B-share market before April 1997, but this result is reversed after that. …
Credit Risk And Real Capital : An Examination Of Swiss Banking Sector Default Risk Using Cvar, Robert J. Powell, David E. Allen
Credit Risk And Real Capital : An Examination Of Swiss Banking Sector Default Risk Using Cvar, Robert J. Powell, David E. Allen
Research outputs pre 2011
The global financial crisis (GFC) has placed the creditworthiness of banks under intense scrutiny. In particular, capital adequacy has been called into question. Current capital requirements make no allowance for capital erosion caused by movements in the market value of assets. This paper examines default probabilities of Swiss banks under extreme conditions using structural modeling techniques. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and conditional probability of default (CPD) techniques are used to measure capital erosion. Significant increase in probability of default (PD) is found during the GFC period. The market asset value based approach indicates a much higher PD than external …