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Forecast Of Community Total Electric Load And Hvac Component Disaggregation Through A New Lstm-Based Method, Huangjie Gong, Rosemary E. Alden, Aron Patrick, Dan Ionel

Power and Energy Institute of Kentucky Faculty Publications

The forecast and estimation of total electric power demand of a residential community, its baseload, and its heating ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) power component, which represents a very large portion of a community electricity usage, are important enablers for optimal energy controls and utility planning. This paper proposes a method that employs machine learning in a multi-step integrated approach. An LSTM model for total electric power at the main circuit feeder is trained using historic multi-year hourly data, outdoor temperature, and solar irradiance. New key temperature indicators, TmHAVC, corresponding to the standby zero-power operation for HVAC systems for summer cooling …