Models and Methods Commons^™

Predicting And Measuring Support For Populism, Jay Rumas

Senior Honors Projects

Through reading the most recent research and case examples, I have discovered that the conventional wisdom on how political actors appeal to voters is rather obsolete. I have done my best to establish a profile of the “populist voter” and predict which parties they may be inclined to support. Cas Mudde, an expert on populist movements, labels populism as the use of a narrative that constructs the struggle of “the people (the majority) vs “the elite'' for political purposes. It has neither a positive or negative connotation. Populist movements often appeal to those among groups that feel as though they …

Water Elites’ Perceptions Of Water Security In The Middle East And North Africa Region, Ghaleb Akari

Dissertations

The Middle East and North African region continues to face significant water security challenges. The purpose of this dissertation is to gain a deeper understanding of water elites’ perceptions of water security in the MENA region. It is not meant to generalize the findings. Instead, the intention for the research is to identify, explain, and analyze by national elites' contrasting perceptions in Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, and Tunisia.

The study examines water elites’ perceptions in four areas: current knowledge level of water security, water resource management, water service delivery, and water-related risk mitigation. These elites’ perceptions of water security will help …

Identifying Armed Group Presence Using Hidden Markov Models, Mauricio Vela Baron

Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Identifying armed group presence is often helpful for conflict studies to examine patterns of conflict. Armed group presence is often used as the main variable of interest in several studies, and in some cases, this variable is ignored. Many of these studies use expert data or proxy variables to analyze armed group presence. This paper proposes Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) as a method to identify armed group presence. HMMs permit identifying armed group presence at a sub-national level and in long panel data sets. A HMM is used in this paper to identify paramilitary and FARC presence in Colombia. The …

Rethinking “Representative” Democracy, Tawreak Gamble-Eddington

Honors Theses

The rapidly changing dynamism of the 21st century has left democratic institutions in shambles as populists rise to power and, arguably, threaten to undermine the very fabric of the democratic way of life through increasingly exclusionary politics. The prominence of populist leaders and re-emergence of ethnonationalism demonstrates a shortcoming of many representative democracies, their elites’ ability to adequately represent the masses. In this paper, I will argue that recent trends in the decline of democracy can be partially attributed to a lack of democratic legitimacy that has been caused by a failure to intentionally account for demographic diversity in the …

Structured For Success: Activist Networks As Key To Organizing Victories At Macalester, Hannah D. Catlin

Political Science Honors Projects

Macalester’s identity as a college is deeply rooted in its commitments to social justice,

activism, and multiculturalism. As such, it has a rich history of student social movements defined by unique, decentralized networking structures forming out of the constraints of working in a college environment. In terms of structure, what do successful Macalester social movement organizations look like? I argue that Macalester social movement organizations form concentrically nested structures and that these networks in concert with organizational tactics lead to success or failure in terms of goal acquisition. I draw on the history of Macalester student social movement organizations, highlighting …

Victimes Ou Criminelles: A Historical And Comparative Analysis Of Sex Work Policy In France, Carver Wolfe

International Relations Honors Papers

This research examines the evolution of sex work policy in France from a regulatory regime during the nineteenth century to an abolitionist stance after World War II to the 2016 adoption of the Nordic model penalizing the purchase of sex. I investigate the ongoing debate between preservationists and abolitionists and examine the arguments raised by each side, making the case that abolitionism has adverse consequences for sex workers. I look at the nineteenth century’s regulatory regime of controlling prostitution through a chapter written in French. I then shift into an analysis of the state’s transition to abolitionism over the course …

Teaching Political Science As An Experiential Learning Project: Developing Inclusive Pedagogy For Engaging Students In And Out Of The Classroom​ ​, Oluremi "Remi" Alapo, Remi Alapo

Open Educational Resources

• Intro to Politics [POL 110] focusing on Democracy and Civic Engagement. Previously incorporated as part of a Service Learning Project with Community Board 1 in Manhattan and affiliated students as volunteers with NYPIRG on voter education, the project will seek to promote citizenship and engagement in political issues, activities and events as well as improve students critical thinking and informed decision making in everyday life on issues that affect them and their communities.

• Students will become familiar with a framework of the various fields and topic areas in Political Science including American politics, comparative politics, international politics and political philosophy …

Best Practices For Voter Engagement Within Higher Education, Alyssa Tomins

Honors Projects

It is imperative that higher education institutions learn more about how to recruit members of younger generations to participate in future elections. Young people have historically voted at low rates, but that trend has started to change in recent years as more resources are being devoted to voter engagement among young people. This leads to the interest of understanding what best practices and strategies have academic institutions utilized to advance voter engagement on their campuses. This qualitative study analyzes these best practices and strategies at 84 colleges and universities, all of whom are members of The Andrew Goodman Foundation Vote …

Aiming To Misfire: Intentional Bias And Its Relationship With Polling Error, Tyler Redmon

Honors Scholars Collaborative Projects

With growing public dissatisfaction with election polling, finding the source of polling error is key to resolving common frustrations. Many things have been blamed for recent polling misses but the method by which polls are conducted deserved a closer look. This paper seeks to find that source of error through polling conducted in the 2020 Presidential election. This paper shows that polling error at the national level can be attributed to intentional bias but there remain questions when it comes to state polling.

Responsiveness, Representation, And Democracy: A Critical Conceptual Analysis And Its Implications For Political Science, Joshua Beck

Masters Theses

Over forty years ago, Hanna Pitkin expressed concern that social scientists were failing to give concepts the attention which they needed (Pitkin 1972, 277). This thesis takes up the same theme, asking how the concept of responsiveness is treated by political scientists. The goal to reveal confusion that surrounds widely used concepts such as responsiveness. The analysis offered in this thesis has significance for the discipline of political science in three ways. First, it highlights confusion surrounding the concept of responsiveness itself. Responsiveness is a widely utilized concept employed throughout the social sciences; however, as this thesis shows, there is …

Gambian And Senegalese Refugee Policies As A Potential Means Towards Regional Stability, Amy Armata

CISLA Senior Integrative Projects

No abstract provided.

Ghost Of Populism: Haunting The Demos In Democracy, Chloe A. Bidne

Honors Scholars Collaborative Projects

Several recent elections demonstrate voters across advanced industrial economies support candidates with a populist agenda. We observe this phenomenon, for example, in the election of Donald J. Trump as president of the United States as well as across the Atlantic through the majority of voters in the UK favoring the UK Independence Party’s call to leave the European Union and return to a nationally focused agenda through Brexit. Europe allows us to be vividly aware of voter support for populist agendas through their multi-party systems, which include political parties who openly and explicitly claim a populist agenda, such as the …

Explaining The Effects Of Political Islam And Preacher Toward Prabowo’S Electoral Dominance: Evidence From Pekanbaru And Kampar, Andhik Beni Saputra, Azhari Setiawan, Hesti Herpina

Jurnal Politik

political affairs. The literature on voter behavior in many countries shows that religious leaders have critical roles in directing the political orientation and behavior of their followers. This article aims to examine the influence of Ustadz Abdul Somad (UAS) toward a significant increase of Prabowo’s vote share in the 2019 presidential election in Riau Province. Although Prabowo lost to Jokowi with a large margin in the last election, he was able to claim electoral victory in 13 out of 34 provinces—one of them is Riau. We assume that Prabowo gained the electoral advantage over his rival in Riau due to …

External Disruptions To Qualitative Data Collection: Addressing Risks Relating To Brexit And Researcher-Participant Rapport, Shukru Esmene, Nick Kirsop-Taylor

The Qualitative Report

In this paper we present the importance of detailing the contextual conditions of a qualitative study to highlight any potential participant-researcher tensions. We emphasize the importance of understanding context in rich detail to expose societal complexities while maintaining positive participant-research rapport. Through two cases, this paper considers that bracketing, reflexivity, and transparency can be applied to form appropriate strategies to deal with external disruptions to qualitative fieldwork. The cases draw on Brexit’s impact on two studies conducted in the United Kingdom. In so doing, we argue that time, relevance, and the individuals involved can coalesce to express varied influences on …

Public Perceptions Of Corruption In East Asia: A Comparative Study Of Japan, Singapore, And South Korea, Isaiah Nielsen

Student Research, Papers, and Creative Works

This research analyzes perceptions of corruption through comparative case studies of South Korea, Japan, and Singapore. It looks to political party affiliation and socioeconomic status for effects on an individual’s perception of corruption. It hypothesizes that individuals more affiliated with the ruling party will perceive the government as less corrupt and individuals that are less affiliated will perceive it as more. Socioeconomic status is split into income, social status, and education variables. Individuals with a lower income and status will perceive the government as more corrupt, while overall higher status and income individuals will perceive it as less. On the …

Look Who's Talking: Differences In Rates Of Interruptions And Proportion Of Time Used By Male And Female U.S. Courts Of Appeals Judges, Sabrina L. Collins, Molly G Baldock, Jasmyne N. Post, Elizabeth Turner

Grawemeyer Colloquium Papers

During oral arguments, attorneys are given the chance to elaborate on their written briefs and answer questions from the judges deciding the case. Studying oral arguments can be a window into the power dynamics between judges and attorneys, and can shed light onto how factors like gender may affect judicial decision-making. While a growing body of research has examined gender dynamics in oral arguments in the United States Supreme Court, no existing studies have examined whether these findings hold up in the U.S. Court of Appeals, the second highest courts in the country. We collected data on two years of …

Factor Analysis Of Rust Belt And Southern Senate Elections, Ethan Braglio

Ramifications

Analysis of Senate Elections in the Rust Belt and Southern States dating back to 1980. Comparing the variables of incumbency, fundraising and fund spent, partisan lean, party control of the white house, and unemployment’s effect on votes and outcome of Senate elections. Attempts to confirm the literature consensus of fundraising and incumbency as the key factors, while also furthering the field by analyzing the other potential critical factors impact. This paper also looks at multivariate models, second order terms, and interaction analysis to understand the complicated relationship between.

Two distinct regions were chosen to test the variables strength in a …

Military Service And Offending Behaviors Of Emerging Adults: A Conceptual Review, Christopher Salvatore, Travis Taniguchi

Department of Justice Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Focusing on the United States, this paper examines the impact of military service for the cohort of individuals that have experienced the social factors that characterize emerging adulthood as a unique stage in the life course. We argue that military service, as a turning point, may act differently in contemporary times compared to findings from past research. This difference is driven by changes in military service, the draft versus volunteer military service, and the prevalence of emerging adulthood. As a background, we describe emerging adulthood, examine how emerging adulthood relates to crime and deviance, explore the impact of military life …

Advocating For The Law Of Subsidiarity, Braeden T. Fleck

Liberty University Journal of Statesmanship & Public Policy

Today in our nation, a steady rate of increased centralization has contributed to a society that seems fixated on the prospect of personal gain. This has had a direct adverse impact on our nation’s economic growth and efficiency, and has dampened our sense of duty as citizens who are gifted with a government administration that acknowledges constitutional rights such as life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. The inefficient results of federal government’s political action highlight the ineffectiveness of current procedure. The question then arises, does the principle of subsidiarity when applied to government provide measurable gain for the parties …

The Urban-Rural Divide In Canadian Federal Elections, 1896–2019 (Preprint), Dave Armstrong, Jack Lucas, Zack Taylor

Western Urban and Local Governance Working Papers

Using a new measure of urbanity for every federal electoral district in Canada from 1896 to the present, this article describes the long-term development of the urban-rural in Canadian federal electoral politics. We focus on three questions: (1) when the urban-rural divide has existed in Canada, identifying three main periods – the 1920s, the 1960s, and 1993–present – in which the urban-rural cleavage has been especially important in federal elections (2) where the urban-rural divide has existed, finding that in the postwar period the urban-rural cleavage is a pan-Canadian phenomenon; and (3) how well urbanity predicts district-level election outcomes. We …