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Product Life-Cycle: New Products, Quality, Substitutes And Advertising In The Theatrical Movie Markets, Jayendra S. Gokhale, Wesley Wilson 2017 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Product Life-Cycle: New Products, Quality, Substitutes And Advertising In The Theatrical Movie Markets, Jayendra S. Gokhale, Wesley Wilson

Publications

In the market for US theatrical movies, there are a set of products (movies), and over time, new products appear and existing products disappear. We develop and estimate a model of the product cycle for movies and the decay of products over time to examine the effect of product quality, production cost, advertising and substitutes on the movie life cycle. Intuitively, new products should have a strong negative effect on the probability of survival of existing movies. The effect, however, is heterogeneously present only for the substitutes from some types (genres). While it is expected that good-quality movies tend to ...


Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan CHOW-TAN 2017 Singapore Management University

Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Diebold–Yilmaz spillover indexes are computed for weekly return volatilities based on daily benchmark stock indexes of the US, the UK, and 10 Asian countries. We found (i) the strengthening of overall volatility spillovers is not a temporary surge but persisted after the crisis; (ii) the susceptibility of individual Asian stock markets to inward volatility transfers is linked to its degree of openness; and (iii) the Asian bourses are becoming more important emitters of financial shocks since the crisis. Rolling regressions on volatility linkages reveal the relative dominance of the US over the Japanese and Chinese bourses, and the level ...


Clogged Intermediation: Were Home Buyers Crowded Out?, Hyunsoo CHOI, Hyun-Soo CHOI, Jung-Eun KIM 2017 Singapore Management University

Clogged Intermediation: Were Home Buyers Crowded Out?, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun-Soo Choi, Jung-Eun Kim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Post-crisis policy interventions significantly increased the demand for mortgage refinancing, but could this surge in refinancing applications have crowded out the supply of credit to home buyers? In this paper, we examine two frictions that hamper financial intermediation and result in banks' substitution of home purchase loans for refinance loans: The risk capacity channel through which banks with limited risk appetites prefer safer loans over riskier loans, and the operating capacity channel through which banks with limited operating capacities prefer applications that require less screening time. We find that following the recent financial crisis, banks facing these capacity constraints indeed ...


An Evaluation Of The State Of Iowa Revenue Forecasts, 1995 – 2017, Peter F. Orazem 2017 Iowa State University

An Evaluation Of The State Of Iowa Revenue Forecasts, 1995 – 2017, Peter F. Orazem

Economics Working Papers

A critical task in establishing the State of Iowa budget is to project available tax revenue. The 2017 fiscal year was characterized by tax revenues that did not live up to predictions, leading to midyear cuts in planned government expenditures and tapping into reserves. That experience raises the question of whether the Iowa state government revenue forecasts are faulty. Are revenue shortfalls avoidable through improved forecasts or are occasional shortfalls inevitable with even the best statistical predictions? I will show that the Iowa government revenue forecasts pass the standard tests of unbiasedness and rationality, meaning that they are not obviously ...


Searching For The Bottom, Chad Hart 2017 Iowa State University

Searching For The Bottom, Chad Hart

Integrated Crop Management Conference

Looking back over the last ten years, crop agriculture has swung between two regimes. The years 2007 to 2012 were characterized by strong crop prices, driven in the beginning by record building demand and at the end by a drought. The years 2013 to 2017 are characterized by strong crop production, a consistent string of large harvests that have been more than enough to meet and exceed demand. The outlook for 2018, based on the information we have today, suggests that pattern will continue for at least another year.


Dicamba Injury And Insurance, Ray Massey 2017 University of Missouri

Dicamba Injury And Insurance, Ray Massey

Integrated Crop Management Conference

Multiperil crop insurance, such as Revenue Protection and Yield Protection, and General Liability Insurance have both been involved in cases where 3rd party damage from herbicide applications occurs.


Financial Stress In Iowa Farms: 2014–2016, Alejandro Plastina 2017 Iowa State University

Financial Stress In Iowa Farms: 2014–2016, Alejandro Plastina

Integrated Crop Management Conference

Iowa farm financial conditions have deteriorated since 2012, but average indicators of liquidity and solvency remain close to their long-term levels. However, average financial measures mask the variability across farms. This article tracks the evolution of financial stress in Iowa farms using a panel of financial statements for 273 farms collected by the Iowa Farm Business Association (IFBA). The share of financially stressed farms (vulnerable liquidity or solvency ratings) increased from 38 percent in December 2014 to 47 percent in December 2016. On average, farms lost $180 per acre of working capital over that period, but farms with vulnerable liquidity ...


Where Are Iowa And Us Land Values Headed?, Wendong Zhang 2017 Iowa State University

Where Are Iowa And Us Land Values Headed?, Wendong Zhang

Integrated Crop Management Conference

Farmland is arguably the most significant asset in the landowner’s investment portfolio, and its strength is critical to maintain a strong equity position of producers and robust collaterals for lenders in this current downturn in agricultural economy. Despite its significance, it is a bit unclear to infer where Iowa and U.S. land values are headed, and unfortunately the signals are somewhat conflicting.


Recent Developments In China And Impacts On Us Agricultural Trade, Wendong Zhang 2017 Iowa State University

Recent Developments In China And Impacts On Us Agricultural Trade, Wendong Zhang

Integrated Crop Management Conference

There is never short of changes and surprises in China. The past two years have been extremely interesting for producers and policymakers watching Chinese agricultural markets. In particular, China’s President Xi promised to extend all farmland contracts by another 30 years, China ended the costly $9-$10/bu corn support price program in 2016 and unveiled a new nationwide mandate of E10 fuel. This article introduces several key points of these policy changes, their motivations and impacts on the US agricultural trade.


Inference In Continuous Systems With Mildly Explosive Regressors, Ye CHEN, Peter C. B. PHILLIPS, Jun YU 2017 Singapore Management University

Inference In Continuous Systems With Mildly Explosive Regressors, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

New limit theory is developed for co-moving systems with explosive processes, connecting continuous and discrete time formulations. The theory uses double asymptotics with infill (as the sampling interval tends to zero) and large time span asymptotics. The limit theory explicitly involves initial conditions, allows for drift in the system, is provided for single and multiple explosive regressors, and is feasible to implement in practice. Simulations show that double asymptotics deliver a good approximation to the finite sample distribution, with both finite sample and asymptotic distributions showing sensitivity to initial conditions. The methods are implemented in the US real estate market ...


The Gatt/Wto Welfare Effects: 1950–2015, Pao-Li CHANG, JIN WEI 2017 Singapore Management University

The Gatt/Wto Welfare Effects: 1950–2015, Pao-Li Chang, Jin Wei

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO in its entire history of 1950-2015 for 180 countries. The analysis embeds nonparametric matching methods in structural quantitative simulations. The results indicate substantial (but highly heterogeneous) welfare gains created by GATT/WTO at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. An extensive set of robustness checks with respect to model specifications, parameter values, and matching estimations are provided. We also characterize the effects of GATT/WTO on global income disparity, its interaction with preferential trade agreements, and the effects of China's ...


Industrial Output Fluctuations In Developing Countries: General Equilibrium Consequences Of Agricultural Productivity Shocks, Hyojung LEE 2017 Singapore Management University

Industrial Output Fluctuations In Developing Countries: General Equilibrium Consequences Of Agricultural Productivity Shocks, Hyojung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper shows that a negative shock to agricultural productivity may increase food prices, and labor and capital can move away from manufacturing into agriculture to meet the subsistence requirement for food. This effect depends on income levels and openness to trade. Using annual manufacturing data and rainfall shocks as the instrument for crop yields (proxy for agricultural productivity), I find that an exogenous decline in yield decreases manufacturing output as well as employment and capital investment in manufacturing. Overall, crop yield variation can explain up to 44% of industrial output fluctuations in developing countries (rainfall shocks cause 31% of ...


Performance Evaluation And Risk Management: Time Series Bootstrap Analysis Of The Mutual Funds And Banking Sectors, Lifa Huang 2017 University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Performance Evaluation And Risk Management: Time Series Bootstrap Analysis Of The Mutual Funds And Banking Sectors, Lifa Huang

Theses and Dissertations

The Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, also known as the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (“Act”), repealed a regulatory proscription in the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933 that prohibited commercial bank holding companies (BHCs) from underwriting most bonds, equities, and insurance policies. After the passage of the Act in November 1999, BHCs that converted to financial holding companies (FHCs) were allowed to engage in securities underwriting without restrictions. The first paper examines whether the removal of barriers to securities underwriting had an adverse impact on the overall stability of the financial sector, and thereby, contributed indirectly to the financial crisis ...


Reaping Richer Returns : Public Spending Priorities For African Agriculture Productivity Growth, Aparajita Goyal, John Nash 2017 World Bank

Reaping Richer Returns : Public Spending Priorities For African Agriculture Productivity Growth, Aparajita Goyal, John Nash

Aparajita Goyal

Enhancing the productivity of agriculture is vital for Sub-Saharan Africa's economic future and is one of the most important tools to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity in the region. How governments elect to spend public resources has significant development impact in this regard. Choosing to catalyze a shift toward more effective, efficient, and climate-resilient public spending in agriculture can accelerate change and unleash growth. Not only does agricultural public spending in Sub-Saharan Africa lag behind other developing regions but its impact is vitiated by subsidy programs and transfers that tend to benefit elites to the detriment of ...


Ceo Compensation And Risk-Taking At Financial Firms: Evidence From U.S. Federal Loan Assistance, Amar Gande, Swami Kalpathy 2017 Southern Methodist University

Ceo Compensation And Risk-Taking At Financial Firms: Evidence From U.S. Federal Loan Assistance, Amar Gande, Swami Kalpathy

Amar Gande

We examine whether risk-taking among the largest financial firms in the U.S. is related to CEO equity incentives before the 2008 financial crisis.  Using data on U.S. Federal Reserve emergency loans provided to these firms, we find that the amount of emergency loans and total days the loans are outstanding are increasing in pre-crisis CEO risk-taking incentives – “vega”.  Our results are robust to accounting for endogeneity in CEO equity incentives and selection of financial firms into emergency loan programs.  We also rule out the possibility that our results are driven by a bank’s funding base, bank complexity ...


The Cost Of Basic Income: Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculations, Karl Widerquist 2017 Georgetown University-Qatar

The Cost Of Basic Income: Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculations, Karl Widerquist

Karl Widerquist

This article shows how the cost of Universal Basic Income (UBI) is often misunderstood and greatly exaggerated. It then presents simple, “back-of-the-envelope” estimates of the net cost of a UBI set at about the official poverty line: $12,000 per adult and $6,000 per child with a 50% “marginal tax rate.” These back-of-the-envelope calculations present a greatly simplified UBI scheme meant not a practical proposal but as a method to obtain a ballpark estimate of the cost of UBI in isolation. Even with simplifying assumptions, these figures are several times more accurate than many common but exaggerated estimates. Key ...


Why The World Needs A Reserve Asset With A Hard Anchor, Warren Coats, Dongsheng Di, Yuxuan Zhao 2017 Renmin University of China

Why The World Needs A Reserve Asset With A Hard Anchor, Warren Coats, Dongsheng Di, Yuxuan Zhao

Warren Coats

From the 1970s, the global currency system has two features: the use of one or a few sovereign currencies as the global reserve asset and the floating exchange rate regime between major currencies.This paper points out that the costs of the dollar’s use as an international reserve currency exceed the benefits for both the US and the rest of the world. These costs include the exporting of American manufacturing as a byproduct of its current account deficit needed to supply its currency to the rest of the world. In addition to the detriment to trade from unpredictable exchange ...


Variational Bayes Estimation Of Time Series Copulas For Multivariate Ordinal And Mixed Data, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith 2017 Melbourne Business School

Variational Bayes Estimation Of Time Series Copulas For Multivariate Ordinal And Mixed Data, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

We propose a new variational Bayes method for estimating high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior, and is substantially faster than previous likelihood-based approaches. We use it to estimate drawable vine copulas for univariate and multivariate Markov ordinal and mixed time series. These have dimension $rT$, where $T$ is the number of observations and $r$ is the number of series, and are difficult to estimate using previous methods. The vine pair-copulas are carefully selected to allow for heteroskedasticity, which is a common feature of ordinal ...


Range-Based Volatility, Expected Stock Returns, And The Low Volatility Anomaly, Benjamin M. Blau, Ryan J. Whitby 2017 Utah State University

Range-Based Volatility, Expected Stock Returns, And The Low Volatility Anomaly, Benjamin M. Blau, Ryan J. Whitby

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models ...


The Day Of The Political Economist, Lewis Karstensson 2017 University of Nevada, Las Vegas

The Day Of The Political Economist, Lewis Karstensson

Economics Faculty Publications

The eighteenth is a remarkable century insofar as the emergence of modern Western thought is concerned. It was a century of revolution in politics, of change from the traditional centralized form of political organization, the monarchy, to experiments in more decentralized polities. It was a century of dramatic change in science. It was the century of the Enlightenment, the Age of Reason.1 And since reason was widely viewed in intellectual circles as a vehicle that would insure progress, improve the human condition, it was a century of widespread optimism.2 It can also be seen as a century of ...


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