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Inversion Copulas From Nonlinear State Space Models With An Application To Inflation Forecasting, Michael S. Smith, Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn 2018 Melbourne Business School

Inversion Copulas From Nonlinear State Space Models With An Application To Inflation Forecasting, Michael S. Smith, Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn

Michael Stanley Smith

We propose the construction of copulas through the inversion of nonlinear state space models. These copulas allow for new time series models that have the same serial dependence structure as a state space model, but with an arbitrary marginal distribution, and flexible density forecasts. We examine the time series properties of the copulas, outline serial dependence measures, and estimate the models using likelihood-based methods. Copulas constructed from three example state space models are considered: a stochastic volatility model with an unobserved component, a Markov switching autoregression, and a Gaussian linear unobserved component model. We show that all three inversion copulas ...


Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith 2018 Melbourne Business School

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. 
In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula function, and the margins are nonparametric. Yet most existing copulas cannot capture heteroskedasticity well, which is a feature of many economic and financial time series. To do so, we propose a new copula created by the inversion of a multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility model, and show how to estimate it using Bayesian methods. We fit the copula model to real-time ...


Distance-Varying Assortativity And Clustering Of The International Trade Network, Angela Abbate, Luca De Benedictis, Giorgio Fagiolo, Lucia Tajoli 2018 Deutsche Bundesbank

Distance-Varying Assortativity And Clustering Of The International Trade Network, Angela Abbate, Luca De Benedictis, Giorgio Fagiolo, Lucia Tajoli

Luca De Benedictis

In this paper we study how the topology of the International Trade Network (ITN) changes in geographical space, and along time. We employ geographical distance between countries in the World to filter the links in the ITN, building a sequence of sub-networks, each one featuring trade links occurring at similar distance. We then test if the assortativity
and clustering of ITN subnetworks changes as distance increases, and we nd that this is indeed the case: distance strongly impacts, in a non-linear way, the topology of the ITN.We show that the ITN is disassortative at long distances while it is ...


Rethinking The Fiscal Relationship Between Public Lands And Public Land Counties: County Payments 4.0, Mark Haggerty 2018 Headwaters Economics

Rethinking The Fiscal Relationship Between Public Lands And Public Land Counties: County Payments 4.0, Mark Haggerty

Humboldt Journal of Social Relations

In 1908, Congress authorized payments to local governments, including counties and school districts, to compensate for the non-taxable status of the newly established forest reserves within their boundaries. The original program shared revenue generated from commercial activities on public lands, e.g. timber harvesting, not anticipating the major changes in the volume and types of activities on National Forest lands, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, that have played out over the past century. Two subsequent reforms – the appropriated Payments in Lieu of Taxes (PILT) in 1976 and ‘transition’ payments made between 1990 and 2018, including payments associated with the Northwest ...


The Political Framing Of Public Policies: An Analysis Of Act 10 In Wisconsin, David Brooker 2018 Lawrence University

The Political Framing Of Public Policies: An Analysis Of Act 10 In Wisconsin, David Brooker

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Political framing of public policy is typically different than the actual effects of the policy. In the case of Act 10 there was an extremely negative perception from teachers in the state of Wisconsin especially when it came to their salaries despite little empirical difference in salaries. Wisconsin’s Act 10, which altered the state’s public-sector collective bargaining laws, provides a natural experiment to test the political framing of public policy. A survey was conducted of teachers across the state of Wisconsin to determine their opinions regarding Act 10 and salary data from Wisconsin and Missouri were collected for ...


The Policy Trajectories Of Autonomous Vehicles, John Paul MacDuffie 2018 University of Pennsylvania

The Policy Trajectories Of Autonomous Vehicles, John Paul Macduffie

Penn Wharton Public Policy Initiative

Autonomous Vehicle (AV) technology promises to dramatically reduce deaths and economic losses from crashes caused by human error, increase mobility for those with disabilities, and revolutionize the auto industry. Yet legislation to facilitate oversight of the development and deployment of AVs is stalling in Congress. Professor John Paul MacDuffie offers a primer on AV technology policy, and discusses strategies for addressing safety and other public concerns while still facilitating AV innovation in the private sector.


Poverty In New York City: Consumption Expenditure As A Poverty Predictor, Michael Lomtevas 2018 CUNY Baruch College

Poverty In New York City: Consumption Expenditure As A Poverty Predictor, Michael Lomtevas

Student Theses

This thesis seeks to replicate the findings of a 2012 study published by Meyer and Sullivan in the Journal of Economic Perspectives using data provided by the Columbia University Longitudinal Wellness Survey. That study found that a poverty measure based on consumption predicted material hardship better than both the Official (OPM) and Supplemental Poverty Measures (SPM). This was found to be the case because a well-constructed consumption poverty measure (CPM) captures in-kind benefits that the OPM neglects. Such a measure also avoids issues inherent in the SPM that arise from respondents underreporting their income and includes the ability to consume ...


Framing The Urban-Rural Divide: The Role Of Historical Myths And Metaphors In The Social And Political Dynamics Of North American Colonialism, Laura Supple 2018 Johns Hopkins University

Framing The Urban-Rural Divide: The Role Of Historical Myths And Metaphors In The Social And Political Dynamics Of North American Colonialism, Laura Supple

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


Fiscal Incentives For Hiring Female Workers? Evidence From Vietnam, Duy N. Duong 2018 Grinnell College

Fiscal Incentives For Hiring Female Workers? Evidence From Vietnam, Duy N. Duong

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


A Look Into Australian Policy On Asylum Seekers And Refugees: A Humanitarian Effort Or A Violation Of Human Rights?, Nahla Achi 2018 Stanford University

A Look Into Australian Policy On Asylum Seekers And Refugees: A Humanitarian Effort Or A Violation Of Human Rights?, Nahla Achi

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


Cheonggyecheon Restoration Project: The Politics And Implications Of Globalization And Gentrification, Yasmin Yoon 2018 Johns Hopkins University

Cheonggyecheon Restoration Project: The Politics And Implications Of Globalization And Gentrification, Yasmin Yoon

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


Unemployment Insurance And The Unemployment Rate: Evidence Across U.S. Counties, Ariel Goldszmidt 2018 University of Chicago

Unemployment Insurance And The Unemployment Rate: Evidence Across U.S. Counties, Ariel Goldszmidt

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


Revamping India’S Answer To The Rohingya Crisis, Arjun Soin 2018 Stanford University

Revamping India’S Answer To The Rohingya Crisis, Arjun Soin

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


The Nuclear Ban Treaty: Advocates, Neutrals, And Opponents In The European Union, Alexis Dorner 2018 Syracuse University

The Nuclear Ban Treaty: Advocates, Neutrals, And Opponents In The European Union, Alexis Dorner

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


Growth Ambitions And Rising Powers: Sino-Indian Asymmetric Balancing In Bilateral, Regional, And Multilateral Settings, Rebecca Lamb 2018 College of William & Mary

Growth Ambitions And Rising Powers: Sino-Indian Asymmetric Balancing In Bilateral, Regional, And Multilateral Settings, Rebecca Lamb

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


Masthead, DUJPEW Editorial Board 2018 Dartmouth College

Masthead, Dujpew Editorial Board

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


Letter From The Editor, DUJPEW Editorial Board 2018 Dartmouth College

Letter From The Editor, Dujpew Editorial Board

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


Volume I | Issue I | Winter/Spring 2018, DUJPEW Editorial Board 2018 Dartmouth College

Volume I | Issue I | Winter/Spring 2018, Dujpew Editorial Board

Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Politics, Economics and World Affairs

No abstract provided.


What Works To Help Manufacturing-Intensive Local Economies?, Timothy J. Bartik 2018 W.E. Upjohn Institute

What Works To Help Manufacturing-Intensive Local Economies?, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.


Connecticut Economic Outlook For 2018-2020: A Perspective From Sacred Heart University Students In Business Economics, Lucjan Orlowski 2018 Sacred Heart University

Connecticut Economic Outlook For 2018-2020: A Perspective From Sacred Heart University Students In Business Economics, Lucjan Orlowski

Lucjan T. Orlowski

The United States economy has been through its fair share of struggles in recent years. Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, many people were uncertain of how it was going to impact the future of American business, policies, and individual states economic potential. After the election of President Donald Trump, it is evident that there has been a great amount of growth in the United States economy, and the growth that has been made can be reflected in multiple ways. Using the tools and knowledge we have obtained in our Economic and Financial Forecasting course at Sacred Heart University, we are ...


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