Economics Commons^™

Information Loss In Volatility Measurement With Flat Price Trading, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A model of financial asset price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an efficient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartingale process for the effcient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of price trading. The approach is related to sticky price modeling and the Calvo pricing mechanism in macroeconomic dynamics. A limit theory for the conventional realized volatility (RV) measure of integrated volatility is developed. The results show that RV is still consistent but has an inflated asymptotic variance that depends on the probability of flat trading. Estimated quarticity is …

The Influences Of The Public Health Care System And Education System On The Economic Growth Of Swaziland, Grace Greer

International and Global Studies Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Kingdom of Eswatini, also known as Swaziland, has one of the youngest populations in the world with over 70% of citizens being under the age of 18 years old. This creates a substantial opportunity for economic, social, and educational growth in a country previously plagued with diseases such as HIV/AIDS, poor health care infrastructure cutting off thousands from basic care, and an educational system with a very low attendance rate and an even lower graduation rate. By evaluating the root causes of such issues dating back to the colonial era there is an opportunity to reprioritize health care and …

Bubble Testing Under Polynomial Trends, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the asymptotic theory of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive (AR) coefficient in an AR(1) regression with intercept when data is generated from a polynomial trend model in different forms. It is shown that the commonly used right-tailed unit root tests tend to favor the explosive alternative. A new procedure, which implements the right-tailed unit root tests in an AR(2) regression, is proposed. It is shown that when the data generating process has a polynomial trend, the test statistics based on the new procedure cannot find evidence of explosiveness. Whereas, when the data generating process is …

On Income Inequality And Poverty In Egypt: Is Prosperity Immoral?, Mohamed Karim Lotfy Abdelkhalek

Theses and Dissertations

There are varying perspectives on, and divergent solutions to, the phenomena of income inequality and poverty. There seems to be polarizing views on both of these sensitive topics. One side of the argument believes income inequality should in itself be mitigated through redistribution measures, while the other argues that this should not be the focus of policy makers, as it deters them from facing the more pressing issue facing society – which is absolute poverty. The relationship between income inequality, poverty, and citizen well-being in Egypt is one that warrants further research, and this paper aims to fill this lacuna. …

Session 7: Would Ai Stocks Estimate Be As Surprised To Usda Stock Reports As Private Market Analysts?, Asif Mahmud Chowdhury, Matthew Elliott

SDSU Data Science Symposium

Would AI Stocks Estimate Be as Surprised to USDA Stock Reports as Private Market Analysts?

Keywords: Machine Learning, Random Forest, Agricultural Commodities Market, Informational Impact, Efficient Market Hypothesis.

The USDA survey-based Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are the primary source of information regarding the relative supply of U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat for the last fifty years. Previous research has examined the accuracy of the USDA stock reports and their relevancy to the market, given alternative sources of estimates (e.g., Isengildina-Massa et al., 2021). For example, private industry analysts also estimate expected quarterly grain stock reports before USDA releases their reports. …

The 2015 Migrant Crisis: An Impact To Germany?, Irish Nicole Solinsky

Doctoral Dissertations and Projects

The 2015 European Migrant Crisis emerged when an influx of refugees settled in Europe from 2015-2019. The asylum seekers fled their homelands to evade a myriad of crises such as violence and war, corruption and abuse, and poor socioeconomic conditions. Of the European states, Germany welcomed the largest number of migrants. This was in part due to Germany’s existing immigration policies in a post-Second World War environment, but also due to Germany’s resounding economic strength. Germany has significantly low unemployment rates and the highest gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe. As such, Germany’s position is one of uncontested significance within …

How Do Broad Non-Disclosure Agreements Affect Labor Markets?, Jason Sockin, Aaron Sojourner, Evan Starr

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

State Tax Strategies To Reduce Care Costs, Gabrielle Pepin

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

The Shrinking Geography Of Housing Opportunity In Mountain West Metros, 2022, Hira Ahmed, Joshua Padilla, Saha Salahi, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Housing & Real Estate

This fact sheet examines data from the National Equity Atlas on the changing geography of opportunity across Mountain West metros. The original report includes data on the largest 100 metros in the United States. This fact sheet reports on the overall percentages of affordable zip codes in nine major metropolitan areas in the Mountain West and changes in affordable zip codes for Black, Latinx, and white households in Mountain West metros from 2013 to 2019. Data for nine Mountain West metros are included: Tucson, AZ; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ; Colorado Springs, CO; Denver-Aurora, CO; Albuquerque, NM; Las Vegas-Paradise, NV; Ogden-Clearfield, UT; Provo-Orem, …

Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Ong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. We find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, we employ an instrumental variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization of the host country where the PE fund is based. Our results apply to Net IRR, TVPI and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results in …

Early Pension Withdrawals In Chile During The Pandemic, Olga M. Fuentes, Olivia S. Mitchell, Felix Villatoro

Wharton Pension Research Council Working Papers

Chile, with one of the largest and best funded defined contribution programs in Latin America, held over USD $200 bn in assets at the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, or more than 80% of GDP. Reacting to populist pressures during the pandemic, however, the government gave non-retired participants three separate opportunities to tap into their retirement accounts, leaving some 4.2 million participants with zero retirement savings and draining around $50 bn from the system. This paper explores several hypotheses regarding why people withdrew their pension money early, and it also presents evidence regarding the likely impact of this short-term policy …

To Be Or Not To Be: The Relationship Between Economic Diversity And Unemployment Rates In Canadian Cities During The Covid-19 Induced Shock, Yahaya Alphonse

Major Papers

Regional scholars have broadly studied the role of economic structure in shielding a community from economic shocks. This research has generally involved comparing diversity against specialization. This study compares differences within varying degrees of economic diversity in Canadian cities. Canada has received very little attention in this field despite the importance this knowledge could provide in shaping Canadian economic policy. This paper aims to fill in this gap by analyzing the role economic diversity played in acting as a structural buffer to the COVID-19-induced economic shock. This analysis is done utilizing a Herfindahl Hirschman Index to measure economic diversity and …

Smoking Behaviour And Its Impact On The Quality Of Life Of The Beneficiary Families Of Social Assistance Funds In East Java, Indonesia, Renny Nurhasana, Suci Puspita Ratih, Rara Warih Gayatri, Tika Dwi Tama, Ni Made Shellasih, Aryana Satrya, Fadhilah Rizky Ningtyas, Nurul Muhafilah

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

The government implements social assistance programs for poor families and vulnerable groups. Therefore, the implementation is still facing various challenges. One of the toughest challenges is smoking behaviour. As the income has been increasing, the cigarette’s expense is also high. Cigarette’s expenditure substitutes other basic needs, such as nutritional foods, health, and education expenses. This study analyses smoking behaviour in social assistance recipients and its impact on quality of life. By using qualitative method, particularly the Rapid Assessment Procedure, data were obtained through in-depth interviews. The study uses purposive method to collect samples in East Java, both Malang City and …

An Experimental Test Of Algorithmic Dismissals, Brice Corgnet

ESI Working Papers

We design a laboratory experiment in which a human or an algorithm decides which of two workers to dismiss. The algorithm automatically dismisses the least productive worker whereas human bosses have full discretion over their decisions. Using performance metrics and questionnaires, we find that fired workers react more negatively to human than to algorithmic decisions in a broad range of tasks. We show that spitefulness exacerbated this negative reaction. Our findings suggest algorithms could help tame negative reactions to dismissals.

Estimating The Effects Of The Ada Amendments Act On The Hiring And Termination Of Individuals With Disabilities, Using New Disability Categorizations, Patrick Button, Philip Armour, Simon Hollands

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Disability discrimination laws are often used to potentially increase employment for individuals with disabilities. However, legal theory and empirical economics research do not provide conclusive answers as to how expansions in disability discrimination laws affect economic outcomes, namely hiring rates, for individuals with disabilities. We estimate the effect of the ADA Amendments Act (ADAAA) on employment transitions: hirings and terminations for individuals with disabilities relative to those without disabilities. To calculate employment transitions, we use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). We also use the SIPP to develop additional measures and categorizations of disability based on …

The Impact Of Covid-19 And Associated Policy Responses On Global Food Security, Edward J. Balistreri, Felix Baquedano, John C. Beghin

Economics Department Faculty Publications

We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on the global economy and food security in 80 low- and middle-income countries. We use a global economy-wide model with detailed disaggregation of agricultural and food sectors and develop a business-as-usual baseline for 2020 and 2021 called “But-for-COVID” (BfC). We then shock the model with aggregate income shocks derived from the IMF World Economic Outlook for 2020 and 2021. We impose total-factor productivity losses in key sectors as well as consumption decreases induced by social distancing. The resulting shocks in prices and incomes from the CGE model simulations …

Landscape With Invisible Hand, John C. Lyden

Journal of Religion & Film

This is a film review of Landscape With Invisible Hand (2023), directed by Cory Finley.

The Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Export, And Economic Growth In Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis, Al Mamun, M H M Imrul Kabir

Arab Economic and Business Journal

This research empirically examined the effect of internal and external factors on the economic growth of Bangladesh using the annual data from 1976 to 2019. ARDL bounds tests were used to detect cointegration and understand the dynamic effect. This study mainly identified the positive and negative casualties because remittance and export have a significant positive role, and FDI has an adverse role in the economic growth process. Furthermore, this study recommends that the government take appropriate steps to increase export, the inflow of remittance and FDI to achieve long-run economic growth, considering the impact of COVID-19 and present Russia- Ukraine …

Social And Financial Incentives For Overcoming A Collective Action Problem, M. Mehrab Bakhtiar, Raymond Guiteras, James Levinsohn, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

Addressing public health externalities often requires community-level collective action. Each person’s sanitation behavior can affect the health of neighbors. We report on a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted with 19,000 households in rural Bangladesh where we randomized (1) either group financial incentives or a non-financial “social recognition” reward, and (2) asking each household to make either a private pledge or a public pledge to maintain hygienic latrines. The group financial reward has the strongest impact in the short term (3 months), inducing a 7.5-12.5 percentage point increase in hygienic latrine ownership. Getting people to publicly commit to maintaining and using …

Exploring Permanency Of Pandemic Influenced Changes In Habitual Consumption Behaviour, Ray Titus, Sejal Valera, Debashish Sengupta

Arab Economic and Business Journal

The pandemic has universally disrupted the way people live and socialise. People’s behavioural patterns have also been significantly influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic. A study conducted in Singapore found evidence of at least 17 behavioural changes triggered by Covid-19 pandemic. Another study done in Italy found that there was a high intention to adopt protective behaviours post the Covid-19 lockdown. Similarly, a study done in South Africa indicated enhanced behavioural responses to Covid-19 and consequently the evolution of preventive behaviours. The behavioural changes triggered by Covid-19 pandemic are likely to extend into consumption territory and impact consumer behaviour significantly. A …