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Information Loss In Volatility Measurement With Flat Price Trading, Peter C. B. PHILLIPS, Jun YU 2023 Singapore Management University

Information Loss In Volatility Measurement With Flat Price Trading, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A model of financial asset price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an efficient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartingale process for the effcient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of price trading. The approach is related to sticky price modeling and the Calvo pricing mechanism in macroeconomic dynamics. A limit theory for the conventional realized volatility (RV) measure of integrated volatility is developed. The results show that RV is still consistent but has an inflated asymptotic variance that depends on the probability of flat trading. Estimated quarticity is …


Bubble Testing Under Polynomial Trends, Xiaohu WANG, Jun YU 2023 Singapore Management University

Bubble Testing Under Polynomial Trends, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops the asymptotic theory of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive (AR) coefficient in an AR(1) regression with intercept when data is generated from a polynomial trend model in different forms. It is shown that the commonly used right-tailed unit root tests tend to favor the explosive alternative. A new procedure, which implements the right-tailed unit root tests in an AR(2) regression, is proposed. It is shown that when the data generating process has a polynomial trend, the test statistics based on the new procedure cannot find evidence of explosiveness. Whereas, when the data generating process is …


Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor ONG 2023 Singapore Management University

Impact Of Geographical Diversification And Limited Attention On Private Equity Fund Returns, Victor Ong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the effect of geographical diversification on global private equity (PE) fund returns. We find that there is a negative correlation between geographical diversification and PE fund returns. To establish the causality between geographical diversification and PE fund returns, we employ an instrumental variable analysis where the instrument used is the stock market capitalization of the host country where the PE fund is based. Our results apply to Net IRR, TVPI and DPI as dependent variables used to proxy for PE fund returns in the main regression model. A one standard deviation increase in geographical diversification results in …


Evaluating The Degree Of Using Islamic Financing Instruments Based On The Concept Of Indebtedness And Its Developmental Importance (A Case Study Of Palestine Islamic Banks 2013-2019), Azmi Awad 2022 Al-Zaytoona University for Sciences and Technology, Palestine

Evaluating The Degree Of Using Islamic Financing Instruments Based On The Concept Of Indebtedness And Its Developmental Importance (A Case Study Of Palestine Islamic Banks 2013-2019), Azmi Awad

Journal of the Arab American University مجلة الجامعة العربية الامريكية للبحوث

This study aimed to shed light on the Islamic financing instruments based on the concept of Indebtedness and indicate the degree of the use of those instruments in the Islamic banks during 2013-2019. This could be achieved by indicating the size and degree of concentration of the use of those instruments and the fairness of their distribution to various economic sectors on the one hand, and explaining the developmental importance of those financing instruments in the economy on the other hand. The researcher used the descriptive analytical approach and the comparative approach. To test the validity of the hypotheses, Pearson …


Lessons Learned: Kevin Stiroh, Mercedes Cardona 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Kevin Stiroh, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Kevin Stiroh was head of the Financial Sector Analysis Supervision Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 (GFC). At the FRBNY, Stiroh was a leader in the design of the “stress test” for the banking system, the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP). In the aftermath of the GFC, members of the FRBNY, including Stiroh, drafted a report on systemic risk and bank supervision, laying out lessons learned from the crisis and their recommendations. In February 2021, Stiroh transitioned from the FRBNY to a leadership position with the Federal Reserve Board …


Lessons Learned: Gaurav Vasisht, Sandra Ward 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Gaurav Vasisht, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Gaurav Vasisht served as assistant counsel, banking and financial services, to the governor of New York during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 (GFC). In his role, Vasisht set the governor’s agenda for banking and financial policy and oversaw the regulatory and legislative priorities of the state banking and insurance departments. Vasisht played a pivotal role in developing and drafting consumer protection legislation, particularly as it related to housing foreclosures at the time of the crisis. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Vasisht that occurred on September 27, 2019.


Lessons Learned: Veerathai Santiprabhob, Maryann Haggerty 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Veerathai Santiprabhob, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Veerathai Santiprabhob was the governor of the Bank of Thailand from 2015 to 2020, a period that included the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier in his career, he was an economist at the International Monetary Fund. At the time of the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis, he returned to his home country to take a position at the Ministry of Finance. There, he was involved with the government response to that financial crisis. From 2000 to 2015, he held private-sector finance jobs before going to lead the Bank of Thailand. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Santiprabhob …


Lessons Learned: Erik Sirri, Mercedes Cardona 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Erik Sirri, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Erik Sirri served as director of the Division of Trading and Markets at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) from 2006 to 2009. In his post, he was responsible for matters relating to the regulation of stock and option exchanges, national securities associations, brokers-dealers, clearing agencies, transfer agents, and credit rating agencies. Before joining the SEC in 1996, he was an assistant professor of finance at the Harvard Business School from 1989 to 1995. Sirri served as the SEC’s chief economist until 1999, before returning to academia. He is currently a professor of finance at Babson College. His research …


Lessons Learned: Claudia Sahm, Mercedes Cardona 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Claudia Sahm, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Claudia Sahm was a principal economist in the Division of Research and Statistics of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2007 to 2017 and section chief for the Consumer & Community Development section in the Division of Consumer and Community Affairs from 2017 to 2019. Her work focused on macro forecasting; she also researched household behavior and responses to fiscal stimulus. While at the Fed, she proposed the Sahm Rule, a gauge to call the start of a recession, based on an average of the unemployment rate. The rule is part of Sahm’s work on the …


Lessons Learned: Hiroshi Nakaso, Maryann Haggerty 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Hiroshi Nakaso, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Hiroshi Nakaso joined the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in 1978, rising to deputy governor in 2013. He was instrumental in addressing Japan’s domestic crisis of 1997 and its response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). He retired from the bank in 2018 and has since served as chairman of the Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. This Lessons Learned summary is based on a November 2021 interview with Nakaso


Lessons Learned: Deborah Perelmuter, Mercedes Cardona 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Deborah Perelmuter, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Deborah Perelmuter has spent more than three decades with the Federal Reserve System. In 2008, as senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) and co-head of Capital Markets Analysis and Trading (CMAT) within the Markets Group, she was tasked with setting up the operational details of the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). The TSLF auctioned Treasury securities to primary dealers in exchange for less liquid collateral to provide liquidity to those firms during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009. Perelmuter became senior financial stability adviser within the office of the director in the FRBNY’s Research …


Lessons Learned: Patrick Honohan, Maryann Haggerty 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Patrick Honohan, Maryann Haggerty

Journal of Financial Crises

Patrick Honohan, an economist, was governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) from September 2009 until November 2015. Early in his tenure, he led a team that investigated the causes of the Irish banking crisis that broke out in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Resolving the problems of bank failure and over-indebtedness that emerged in that crisis dominated his term of office. In late 2010, Ireland had to request financial assistance from the “troika” of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission, and the European …


Lessons Learned: Mike Leahy, Yasemin Sim Esmen 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Mike Leahy, Yasemin Sim Esmen

Journal of Financial Crises

Mike Leahy was associate director at the Federal Reserve Board’s Division of International Finance between 2008 and 2010. He was instrumental in establishing swap lines with foreign central banks and reviewed and reported on excess reserve balances and required interest payments to depository institutions. This Lessons Learned is based on a phone interview with Leahy on October 22, 2020.


Lessons Learned: Andrew Gray, Mercedes Cardona 2022 Yale University

Lessons Learned: Andrew Gray, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Andrew Gray joined the FDIC in 2007, after having been majority director of communications for the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and press secretary for US Senator Richard C. Shelby (R–AL). Gray’s initial project was a campaign to mark the 75th anniversary of the creation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC); his role evolved into running crisis communications as the FDIC stepped in during several bank failures triggered by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and conducted 489 bank resolutions during 2008–2013. After the crisis, the FDIC also assumed new responsibilities over the winding down of …


Thailand: Reserve Requirements, Afc, Ezekiel Vergara, Corey N. Runkel 2022 Yale School of Management

Thailand: Reserve Requirements, Afc, Ezekiel Vergara, Corey N. Runkel

Journal of Financial Crises

Following years of growth, the Thai economy began showing confidence-busting signs in 1996, including a liquidity crunch. In May 1997, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) announced that it would expand the list of short-term assets that banks and finance companies could use to satisfy the BOT’s liquidity reserve requirement, including obligations of the Financial Institution Development Fund (FIDF), which provided liquidity support to illiquid financial institutions. In the summer of 1997, the BOT suspended the operations of 58 finance companies and floated the Thai baht (THB), unleashing the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). Tight liquidity conditions continued and, in September 1997, …


Venezuela: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Corey N. Runkel 2022 Yale School of Management

Venezuela: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Corey N. Runkel

Journal of Financial Crises

Leading up to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) sought to tamp down inflation by raising its interest rate target and by raising the marginal reserve requirement for banks, which it had introduced in 2006. By late 2008, the GFC began to hit Venezuelan banks and the country’s public oil producer (PDVSA). Widespread deposit withdrawals squeezed banks and pushed the interbank lending rate to 28%. The BCV responded in December 2008 by lowering the marginal reserve requirement, applicable to deposits above 90 billion bolívars (USD 4.2 million), from 30% to 27% of deposits. It held …


Russia: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Benjamin Hoffner 2022 Yale School of Management

Russia: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Benjamin Hoffner

Journal of Financial Crises

In August 2008, Russian banks and financial markets experienced significant capital outflows after Russia invaded neighboring Georgia. The collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15 led to further outflows and a 25% drop in Russia’s main stock index. On September 17, regulators halted stock-market trading. Later that day, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) announced cuts to the three required reserve ratios (RRRs) it imposed on commercial banks—based on their ruble liabilities to foreign banks, ruble liabilities to individuals, and other liabilities—by 400 basis points, effective September 18, in an effort to promote banking sector liquidity. The CBR …


Peru: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Sean Fulmer, Bailey Decker 2022 Yale School of Management

Peru: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Sean Fulmer, Bailey Decker

Journal of Financial Crises

Peru experienced the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 (GFC) in two distinct phases. First, starting in the summer of 2007, record capital inflows to the Peru banking sector contributed to an overheating economy. The Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) responded in September 2007 by removing reserve requirements on long-term external credit to promote long-term, rather than short-term, capital inflows. In February 2008, for similar reasons, it began to raise the ordinary minimum reserve requirement on bank liabilities and implemented new marginal reserve requirements on increases in those liabilities. Second, when the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman …


Russia: Reserve Requirements, 1998, Benjamin Hoffner 2022 Yale School of Management

Russia: Reserve Requirements, 1998, Benjamin Hoffner

Journal of Financial Crises

During the 1998 ruble crisis, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) relied on reserve requirements (RR) to bring stability to the ruble’s exchange rate corridor and, over time, to inject liquidity into the frozen domestic banking system. First, in February 1998, the CBR unified the RR ratio on ruble and foreign currency liabilities to facilitate ruble financing. Second, after the devaluation of the ruble in August, the CBR lowered the RR ratio to provide liquidity to the banking system. Third, the CBR revised the computation of the RR ratio to provide relief to banks in an effort to …


Malaysia: Reserve Requirements, Afc, Bailey Decker 2022 Yale School of Management

Malaysia: Reserve Requirements, Afc, Bailey Decker

Journal of Financial Crises

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) unpegged the ringgit in July 1997, days after Thailand floated the baht. Ringgit depreciation and adverse investor sentiment worsened, contributing to a domestic liquidity shortage and capital flight. Malaysia experienced market instability in the early months of 1998, particularly pressure on its exchange rate, foreign currency reserves, and interest rates. At the same time, disruptions in the domestic money market and loan intermediation process caused an increase in lending rates, which resulted in debt servicing problems and weakened financial stability. To facilitate lending and productive economic activity, BNM twice lowered the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) at …


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