On A Multiple-Choice Guessing Game, 2016 Bethel College - Mishawaka

#### On A Multiple-Choice Guessing Game, Ryan Cushman, Adam J. Hammett

*The Research and Scholarship Symposium*

We consider the following game (a generalization of a binary version explored by Hammett and Oman): the first player (“Ann”) chooses a (uniformly) random integer from the first n positive integers, which is not revealed to the second player (“Gus”). Then, Gus presents Ann with a k-option multiple choice question concerning the number she chose, to which Ann truthfully replies. After a predetermined number m of these questions have been asked, Gus attempts to guess the number chosen by Ann. Gus wins if he guesses Ann’s number. Our goal is to determine every m-question algorithm which maximizes the probability ...

Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion, 2016 University of Washington - Seattle Campus

#### Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion, Amalia Magaret

*UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series*

We have frequently implemented crossover studies to evaluate new therapeutic interventions for genital herpes simplex virus infection. The outcome measured to assess the efficacy of interventions on herpes disease severity is the viral shedding rate, defined as the frequency of detection of HSV on the genital skin and mucosa. We performed a simulation study to ascertain whether our standard model, which we have used previously, was appropriately considering all the necessary features of the shedding data to provide correct inference. We simulated shedding data under our standard, validated assumptions and assessed the ability of 5 different models to reproduce the ...

Simulation Of Nuclear Fusion Using A One Dimensional Particle In Cell Method, 2016 Humboldt State University

#### Simulation Of Nuclear Fusion Using A One Dimensional Particle In Cell Method, Steven T. Margell

*Theses and projects*

In this thesis several novel techniques are developed to simulate fusion events in an isotropic, electrostatic three-dimensional Deuterium-Tritium plasma. These techniques allow us to accurately predict three-dimensional collision events with a one-dimensional model while simultaneously reducing compute time via a nearest neighbor algorithm. Furthermore, a fusion model based on first principles is developed that yields an average fusion reactivity which correlates well with empirical results.

Random Walks On Thompson's Group F, 2016 Bard College

#### Random Walks On Thompson's Group F, Sarah C. Ghandour

*Senior Projects Fall 2016*

In this paper we consider the statistical properties of random walks on Thompson’s group F . We use two-way forest diagrams to represent elements of F . First we describe the random walk of F by relating the steps of the walk to the possible interactions between two-way forest diagrams and the elements of {x0,x1}, the finite generating set of F, and their inverses. We then determine the long-term probabilistic and recurrence properties of the walk.

An Imputation Approach For Handling Mixed-Mode Surveys, 2016 Seoul National University

#### An Imputation Approach For Handling Mixed-Mode Surveys, Seunghwan Park, Jae Kwang Kim, Sangun Park

*Statistics Publications*

Mixed-mode surveys are becoming more popular recently because of their convenience for users, but different mode effects can complicate the comparability of the survey results. Motivated by the Private Education Expenditure Survey (PEES) of Korea, we propose a novel application of fractional imputation to handle mixed-mode survey data. The proposed method is applied to create imputed values of the unobserved counterfactual outcome variables in the mixed-mode surveys. The proposed method is directly applicable when the choice of survey mode is self-selected. Variance estimation using Taylor linearization is developed. Results from a limited simulation study are also presented.

A New Right Tailed Test Of The Ratio Of Variances, 2016 University of North Florida

#### A New Right Tailed Test Of The Ratio Of Variances, Elizabeth Rochelle Lesser

*UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations*

It is important to be able to compare variances efficiently and accurately regardless of the parent populations. This study proposes a new right tailed test for the ratio of two variances using the Edgeworth’s expansion. To study the Type I error rate and Power performance, simulation was performed on the new test with various combinations of symmetric and skewed distributions. It is found to have more controlled Type I error rates than the existing tests. Additionally, it also has sufficient power. Therefore, the newly derived test provides a good robust alternative to the already existing methods.

Stochastic Network Design: Models And Scalable Algorithms, 2016 University of Massachusetts Amherst

#### Stochastic Network Design: Models And Scalable Algorithms, Xiaojian Wu

*Doctoral Dissertations*

Many natural and social phenomena occur in networks. Examples include the spread of information, ideas, and opinions through a social network, the propagation of an infectious disease among people, and the spread of species within an interconnected habitat network. The ability to modify a phenomenon towards some desired outcomes has widely recognized benefits to our society and the economy. The outcome of a phenomenon is largely determined by the topology or properties of its underlying network. A decision maker can take *management actions *to modify a network and, therefore, change the outcome of the phenomenon. A management action is an ...

Monte Carlo Studies Of Underconstrained Magnetism In Ultracold Fermionic Alkaline Earth Atomic Gases, 2016 University of Colorado, Boulder

#### Monte Carlo Studies Of Underconstrained Magnetism In Ultracold Fermionic Alkaline Earth Atomic Gases, Pavao Santak

*Undergraduate Honors Theses*

Physicists have been trying to create artificial magnetic systems using ultra-cold atomic gases as their simulators. However, behavior of many ultra-cold atomic systems is not very well understood yet. Ultra-cold fermionic alkaline earth atomic (AEA) gases are one of those systems. In this thesis, we study the effects of thermal fluctuations on the overall macroscopic behavior of ultra-cold fermionic AEA gases using a particular semiclassical model. We study the AEA systems on a square lattice with periodic boundary conditions. To investigate the behavior of AEA systems under the effects of thermal fluctuations, we analyze several different types of correlation functions ...

A Novel Method For Assessing Co-Monotonicity: An Interplay Between Mathematics And Statistics With Applications, 2015 The University of Western Ontario

#### A Novel Method For Assessing Co-Monotonicity: An Interplay Between Mathematics And Statistics With Applications, Danang T. Qoyyimi

*Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository*

Numerous problems in econometrics, insurance, reliability engineering, and statistics rely on the assumption that certain functions are monotonic, which may or may not be true in real life scenarios. To satisfy this requirement, from the theoretical point of view, researchers frequently model the underlying phenomena using parametric and semi-parametric families of functions, thus effectively specifying the required shapes of the functions. To tackle these problems in a non-parametric way, when the shape cannot be specified explicitly but only estimated approximately, we suggest indices for measuring the lack of monotonicity in functions. We investigate properties of these indices and offer convenient ...

Empirical Likelihood For Irregularly Located Spatial Data, 2015 Iowa State University

#### Empirical Likelihood For Irregularly Located Spatial Data, Matthew Van Hala, Daniel J. Nordman, Zhengyuan Zhu

*Statistics Publications*

We develop an empirical likelihood (EL) method for inference class of spatial data exhibiting stochastic spatial patterns with various levels of infill sampling. Without stringent assumptions about the sampling design or spatial dependence, the EL method (based on estimating functions) produces log-likelihood ratio statistics having chi-square limits for calibrating tests and confidence regions for spatial parameters. Maximum EL estimators are valid for point estimation and formulating tests of spatial structure conditions. The proposed EL approach applies additionally to inference in spatial regression models with irregularly located sampling sites. The method is illustrated with a data example and investigated through simulation ...

Probabilistic Reasoning In Cosmology, 2015 The University of Western Ontario

#### Probabilistic Reasoning In Cosmology, Yann Benétreau-Dupin

*Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository*

Cosmology raises novel philosophical questions regarding the use of probabilities in inference. This work aims at identifying and assessing lines of arguments and problematic principles in probabilistic reasoning in cosmology.

The first, second, and third papers deal with the intersection of two distinct problems: accounting for selection effects, and representing ignorance or indifference in probabilistic inferences. These two problems meet in the cosmology literature when anthropic considerations are used to predict cosmological parameters by conditionalizing the distribution of, e.g., the cosmological constant on the number of observers it allows for. However, uniform probability distributions usually appealed to in such ...

Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard Assessment For Southeast Part Of Coastal Region Of China, 2015 The University of Western Ontario

#### Tropical Cyclone Wind Hazard Assessment For Southeast Part Of Coastal Region Of China, Sihan Li

*Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository*

Tropical cyclone (TC) or typhoon wind hazard and risk are significant for China. The return period value of the maximum typhoon wind speed is used to characterize the typhoon wind hazard and assign wind load in building design code. Since the historical surface observations of typhoon wind speed are often scarce and of short period, the typhoon wind hazard assessment is often carried out using the wind field model and TC track model. For a few major cities in the coastal region of mainland China, simple or approximated wind field models and a circular subregion method (CSM) have been used ...

Numerical Methods For Deterministic And Stochastic Phase Field Models Of Phase Transition And Related Geometric Flows, 2015 University of Tennessee - Knoxville

#### Numerical Methods For Deterministic And Stochastic Phase Field Models Of Phase Transition And Related Geometric Flows, Yukun Li

*Doctoral Dissertations*

This dissertation consists of three integral parts with each part focusing on numerical approximations of several partial differential equations (PDEs). The goals of each part are to design, to analyze and to implement continuous or discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for the underlying PDE problem.

Part One studies discontinuous Galerkin (DG) approximations of two phase field models, namely, the Allen-Cahn and Cahn-Hilliard equations, and their related curvature-driven geometric problems, namely, the mean curvature flow and the Hele-Shaw flow. We derive two discrete spectrum estimates, which play an important role in proving the sharper error estimates which only depend on a ...

Numerical Approximation Of Stochastic Differential Equations Driven By Levy Motion With Infinitely Many Jumps, 2015 University of Tennessee - Knoxville

#### Numerical Approximation Of Stochastic Differential Equations Driven By Levy Motion With Infinitely Many Jumps, Ernest Jum

*Doctoral Dissertations*

In this dissertation, we consider the problem of simulation of stochastic differential equations driven by pure jump Levy processes with infinite jump activity. Examples include, the class of stochastic differential equations driven by stable and tempered stable Levy processes, which are suited for modeling of a wide range of heavy tail phenomena. We replace the small jump part of the driving Levy process by a suitable Brownian motion, as proposed by Asmussen and Rosinski, which results in a jump-diffusion equation. We obtain L^{p} [the space of measurable functions with a finite p-norm], for p greater than or equal to ...

Propagating Lyapunov Functions To Prove Noise-Induced Stabilization, 2015 Valparaiso University

#### Propagating Lyapunov Functions To Prove Noise-Induced Stabilization, Tiffany Kolba, Avanti Athreya, Jonathan Mattingly

*Tiffany N Kolba*

No abstract provided.

Mathematical Models Of Games Of Chance: Epistemological Taxonomy And Potential In Problem-Gambling Research, 2015 University of Bucharest

#### Mathematical Models Of Games Of Chance: Epistemological Taxonomy And Potential In Problem-Gambling Research, Catalin Barboianu

*UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal*

Games of chance are developed in their physical consumer-ready form on the basis of mathematical models, which stand as the premises of their existence and represent their physical processes. There is a prevalence of statistical and probabilistic models in the interest of all parties involved in the study of gambling – researchers, game producers and operators, and players – while functional models are of interest more to math-inclined players than problem-gambling researchers. In this paper I present a structural analysis of the knowledge attached to mathematical models of games of chance and the act of mathematical modeling, arguing that such non-standard knowledge ...

The Relationship Between Self-Determination And Client Outcomes Among The Homeless, 2015 California State University - San Bernardino

#### The Relationship Between Self-Determination And Client Outcomes Among The Homeless, Samuel M. Hanna

*Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations*

This paper has attempted to determine if there is a significant relationship between self-determination and client outcomes among the homeless. The study has been based upon the conceptual framework set forth in Self-Determination Theory. The purpose of the study was to explore the relationship between self-determination and client outcomes among the homeless. Using a data collection instrument, based on empirically validated instrumentation, clients from several homeless service providers in the City of San Bernardino were assessed for the level of self-determination and autonomy support they experience within these agencies. Outcome measures included such things as whether the client was going ...

Small Area Estimation Combining Information From Several Sources, 2015 Iowa State University

#### Small Area Estimation Combining Information From Several Sources, Jae Kwang Kim, Seunghwan Park, Seo-Young Kim

*Statistics Publications*

An area-level model approach to combining information from several sources is considered in the context of small area estimation. At each small area, several estimates are computed and linked through a system of structural error models. The best linear unbiased predictor of the small area parameter can be computed by the general least squares method. Parameters in the structural error models are estimated using the theory of measurement error models. Estimation of mean squared errors is also discussed. The proposed method is applied to the real problem of labor force surveys in Korea.

Estimated Probability Of Becoming A Case Of Drug Dependence In Relation To Duration Of Drug-Taking Experience: A Function Approach, 2015 Michigan State University

#### Estimated Probability Of Becoming A Case Of Drug Dependence In Relation To Duration Of Drug-Taking Experience: A Function Approach, Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya, James C. Anthony

*Olga A. Vsevolozhskaya*

Measured as elapsed time from first use to dependence syndrome onset, the estimated 'induction interval' for cocaine clearly is short relative to the cannabis interval, but little is known about risk of becoming dependent when use persists. Published estimates for this facet of drug dependence epidemiology are from life histories elicited years after first use. To improve estimation, we turn to new data from nationally representative samples of newly incident drug users identified via probability sampling and confidential computer-assisted self-interviews for the National Surveys on Drug Use and Health, 2004-2013. Standardized modules assess first and most recent use, and dependence ...

Video Event Understanding With Pattern Theory, 2015 University of South Florida

#### Video Event Understanding With Pattern Theory, Fillipe Souza, Sudeep Sarkar, Anuj Srivastava, Jingyong Su

*MODVIS Workshop*

We propose a combinatorial approach built on Grenander’s pattern theory to generate semantic interpretations of video events of human activities. The basic units of representations, termed generators, are linked with each other using pairwise connections, termed bonds, that satisfy predefined relations. Different generators are specified for different levels, from (image) features at the bottom level to (human) actions at the highest, providing a rich representation of items in a scene. The resulting configurations of connected generators provide scene interpretations; the inference goal is to parse given video data and generate high-probability configurations. The probabilistic structures are imposed using energies ...