Quantitative Conservation Of The Gray Wolf (Canis Lupus): Implications Of Monitoring And Modeling The Yellowstone Wolves, 2018 University of Colorado, Boulder

#### Quantitative Conservation Of The Gray Wolf (Canis Lupus): Implications Of Monitoring And Modeling The Yellowstone Wolves, Michael Procko

*Undergraduate Honors Theses*

The 1995 reintroduction of wolves to the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem had lasting effects on our understanding of reintroduction biology as a whole. However, continued study of a system as complex and intricately interwoven as this should be done with minimal human influence on the ecosystem. The states comprising the tri-state area surrounding Yellowstone National Park—Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana—have recently delisted wolves from the endangered species list. Here, I assess the greater implications in conservation that can be deduced from quantitative analysis of the Yellowstone wolves, and question whether the species is, in fact, stable enough for delisting in ...

Finding Planted Cliques In Erdős–Rényi Random Graphs: Improving Previous Methods And Expanding Applications, 2018 University of Colorado, Boulder

#### Finding Planted Cliques In Erdős–Rényi Random Graphs: Improving Previous Methods And Expanding Applications, Megan Sochinski

*Undergraduate Honors Theses*

In this paper, we will discuss new methods for finding planted cliques within Erdős–Rényi random graphs. An Erdős–Rényi random graph is a graph with *n* vertices, where each vertex is connected to each other vertex with some probability *p*, independent of all other choices. The planted clique problem asks us to find the most efficient way to find a planted clique in an Erdős–Rényi random graph. A planted clique is a secretly chosen set of vertices in the graph that are purposefully connected with edges added to the graph until all of the selected vertices are connected ...

Mechanism Design, Matching Theory And The Stable Roommates Problem, 2018 Colby College

#### Mechanism Design, Matching Theory And The Stable Roommates Problem, Yashaswi Mohanty

*Honors Theses*

This thesis consists of two independent albeit related chapters. The first chapter introduces concepts from mechanism design and matching theory, and discusses potential applications of this theory, particularly in relation to dorm allocations in colleges. The second chapter investigates a subset of the dorm allocation problem, namely that of matching roommates. In particular, the paper looks at the probability of solvability of random instances of the stable roommates game under the condition that preferences are not completely random and exogenous but endogenously determined through a dependence on room choice. These probabilities are estimated using Monte-Carlo simulations and then compared with ...

Comparing Various Machine Learning Statistical Methods Using Variable Differentials To Predict College Basketball, 2018 The University of Akron

#### Comparing Various Machine Learning Statistical Methods Using Variable Differentials To Predict College Basketball, Nicholas Bennett

*Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects*

The purpose of this Senior Honors Project is to research, study, and demonstrate newfound knowledge of various machine learning statistical techniques that are not covered in the University of Akron’s statistics major curriculum. This report will be an overview of three machine-learning methods that were used to predict NCAA Basketball results, specifically, the March Madness tournament. The variables used for these methods, models, and tests will include numerous variables kept throughout the season for each team, along with a couple variables that are used by the selection committee when tournament teams are being picked. The end goal is to ...

Effects Of Grain Boundary Disorder On Yield Strength, 2018 Iowa State University and Ames Laboratory

#### Effects Of Grain Boundary Disorder On Yield Strength, Valery Borovikov, Mikhail I. Mendelev, Alexander H. King

*Materials Science and Engineering Publications*

It was recently reported that segregation of Zr to grain boundaries (GB) in nanocrystalline Cu can lead to the formation of disordered intergranular films [1,2]. In this study we employ atomistic computer simulations to study how the formation of these films affects the dislocation nucleation from the GBs. We found that full disorder of the grain boundary structure leads to the suppression of dislocation emission and significant increase of the yield stress. Depending on the solute concentration and heat-treatment, however, a partial disorder may also occur and this aids dislocation nucleation rather than suppressing it, resulting in elimination of ...

A Review Of The Utility Of Bayesian Network Models, 2018 The University of Akron

#### A Review Of The Utility Of Bayesian Network Models, Luke Magyar

*Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects*

Bayesian Networks are probabilistic models built from conditional probability tables that relate two observable instances to one another in parent-child fashion. The networks’ strength lies in their ability to use inferential logic to make likelihood assessments about a parent node based on an observation of its child. Additionally, they make it very easy to combine quantitative data with qualitative knowledge from industry experts. These abilities make them very attractive for use as formulation tools in the paint and rubber industries. Paint and rubber formulation has long proven to be a challenging task because companies have a difficult time compiling the ...

Statistical Analysis Of Momentum In Basketball, 2017 Bowling Green State University

#### Statistical Analysis Of Momentum In Basketball, Mackenzi Stump

*Honors Projects*

The “hot hand” in sports has been debated for as long as sports have been around. The debate involves whether streaks and slumps in sports are true phenomena or just simply perceptions in the mind of the human viewer. This statistical analysis of momentum in basketball analyzes the distribution of time between scoring events for the BGSU Women’s Basketball team from 2011-2017. We discuss how the distribution of time between scoring events changes with normal game factors such as location of the game, game outcome, and several other factors. If scoring events during a game were always randomly distributed ...

Making Models With Bayes, 2017 California State University, San Bernardino

#### Making Models With Bayes, Pilar Olid

*Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations*

Bayesian statistics is an important approach to modern statistical analyses. It allows us to use our prior knowledge of the unknown parameters to construct a model for our data set. The foundation of Bayesian analysis is Bayes' Rule, which in its proportional form indicates that the posterior is proportional to the prior times the likelihood. We will demonstrate how we can apply Bayesian statistical techniques to fit a linear regression model and a hierarchical linear regression model to a data set. We will show how to apply different distributions to Bayesian analyses and how the use of a prior affects ...

Statistical Modelling, Optimal Strategies And Decisions In Two-Period Economies, 2017 The University of Western Ontario

#### Statistical Modelling, Optimal Strategies And Decisions In Two-Period Economies, Jiang Wu

*Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository*

Motivated by some real problems, our thesis puts forward two general two-period pricing models and explore optimal buying and selling strategies in two states of the two-period decision, when buyer/seller's decisions in the two periods are uncertain: commodity valuations may or may not be independent, may or may not follow the same distribution, be heavily or just lightly influenced by exogenous economic conditions, and so on. For both the example of buying laptops and the example of selling houses, the connections between each example and the two-envelope paradox encourage us to explore optimal strategies based on the works ...

Propagation Of Probabilistic Uncertainty: The Simplest Case (A Brief Pedagogical Introduction), 2017 University of Texas at El Paso

#### Propagation Of Probabilistic Uncertainty: The Simplest Case (A Brief Pedagogical Introduction), Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

*Departmental Technical Reports (CS)*

The main objective of this text is to provide a brief introduction to formulas describing the simplest case of propagation of probabilistic uncertainty -- for students who have not yet taken a probability course.

Investigation Of Ternary Fission, 2017 California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

#### Investigation Of Ternary Fission, Alex C. Kemnitz

*Physics*

Ternary fission is a rare occurrence in which three particles are produced from a single fission event. This analysis uses tracked fission event data recorded by NIFFTE’s time projection chamber with a series of refined cuts to isolate all possible ternary events. The experiment used two targets, each consisting of two isotopes; one target was Pu-239 and U-235, and the other was U-238 and U-235. The data was used to measure the ternary/binary fission ratios for each isotope. The ratios for the Pu-239 and U-235 target that were found are shown to be too high due to alpha ...

Hazard Assessment Of Meteoroid Impact For The Design Of Lunar Habitats, 2017 Purdue University

#### Hazard Assessment Of Meteoroid Impact For The Design Of Lunar Habitats, Herta Paola Montoya, Shirley Dyke, Julio A. Ramirez, Antonio Bobet, H. Jay Melosh, Daniel Gomez

*The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium*

The design of self-sustaining lunar habitats is a challenge primarily due to the Moon’s lack of atmospheric protection and hazardous environment. To assure safe habitats that will lead to further lunar and space exploration, it is necessary to assess the different hazards faced on the Moon such as meteoroid impacts, extreme temperatures, and radiation. In particular, meteoroids pose a risk to lunar structures due to their high frequency of occurrence and hypervelocity impact. Continuous meteoroid impacts can harm structural elements and vital equipment compromising the well-being of lunar inhabitants. This study is focused on the hazard conceptualization and quantification ...

Dependence Structures In Lévy-Type Markov Processes, 2017 University of Tennessee, Knoxville

#### Dependence Structures In Lévy-Type Markov Processes, Eddie Brendan Tu

*Doctoral Dissertations*

In this dissertation, we examine the positive and negative dependence of infinitely divisible distributions and Lévy-type Markov processes. Examples of infinitely divisible distributions include Poissonian distributions like compound Poisson and α-stable distributions. Examples of Lévy-type Markov processes include Lévy processes and Feller processes, which include a class of jump-diffusions, certain stochastic differential equations with Lévy noise, and subordinated Markov processes. Other examples of Lévy-type Markov processes are time-inhomogeneous Feller evolution systems (FES), which include additive processes. We will provide a tour of various forms of positive dependence, which include association, positive supermodular association (PSA), positive supermodular dependence (PSD), and positive ...

Burden Of Atopic Dermatitis In The United States: Analysis Of Healthcare Claims Data In The Commercial, Medicare, And Medi-Cal Databases, 2017 STATinMED Research/SIMR, Inc.

#### Burden Of Atopic Dermatitis In The United States: Analysis Of Healthcare Claims Data In The Commercial, Medicare, And Medi-Cal Databases, Sulena Shrestha, Raymond Miao, Li Wang, Jingdong Chao, Huseyin Yuce, Wenhui Wei

*Publications and Research*

Comparative data on the burden of atopic dermatitis (AD) in adults relative to the general population are limited. We performed a large-scale evaluation of the burden of disease among US adults with AD relative to matched non-AD controls, encompassing comorbidities, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), and costs, using healthcare claims data. The impact of AD disease severity on these outcomes was also evaluated.

Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, 2017 Loyola University Chicago

#### Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, Ronald I. Greenberg

*Computer Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works*

Magic tricks based on computer science concepts help grab student attention and can motivate them to delve more deeply. Error detection ideas long used by computer scientists provide a rich basis for working magic; probably the most well known trick of this type is one included in the CS Unplugged activities. This paper shows that much more powerful variations of the trick can be performed, some in an unplugged environment and some with computer assistance. Some of the tricks also show off additional concepts in computer science and discrete mathematics.

Digital Forensics Tool Selection With Multi-Armed Bandit Problem, 2017 Sam Houston State University

#### Digital Forensics Tool Selection With Multi-Armed Bandit Problem, Umit Karabiyik, Tugba Karabiyik

*Annual ADFSL Conference on Digital Forensics, Security and Law*

Digital forensics investigation is a long and tedious process for an investigator in general. There are many tools that investigators must consider, both proprietary and open source. Forensics investigators must choose the best tool available on the market for their cases to make sure they do not overlook any evidence resides in suspect device within a reasonable time frame. This is however hard decision to make, since learning and testing all available tools make their job only harder. In this project, we define the digital forensics tool selection for a specific investigative task as a multi-armed bandit problem assuming that ...

Gilmore Girls And Instagram: A Statistical Look At The Popularity Of The Television Show Through The Lens Of An Instagram Page, 2017 Chapman University

#### Gilmore Girls And Instagram: A Statistical Look At The Popularity Of The Television Show Through The Lens Of An Instagram Page, Brittany Simmons

*Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters*

After going on the Warner Brothers Tour in December of 2015, I created a *Gilmore Girls* Instagram account. This account, which started off as a way for me to create edits of the show and post my photos from the tour turned into something bigger than I ever could have imagined. In just over a year I have over 55,000 followers. I post content including revival news, merchandise, and edits of the show that have been featured in Entertainment Weekly, Bustle, E! News, People Magazine, Yahoo News, & GilmoreNews.

I created a dataset of qualitative and quantitative outcomes from my ...

Statistical Analysis Of Markovian Queueing Models Of Limit Order Books, 2017 Washington University in St. Louis

#### Statistical Analysis Of Markovian Queueing Models Of Limit Order Books, Yiyao Luo

*Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations*

The objective of this thesis is to investigate the suitability of some Markovian queueing models in being able to effectively describe the dynamical properties of a limit order book more specifically. We review and compare the assumptions proposed by Huang et al.[Quantitative Finance,12,547-557(2012)] and Cont et al.[SIAM Journal for Financial Mathematics,4,1- 25(2013)], and estimate the intensity parameters in both ways, based on real data of a stock on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Trough comparing by cumulative distribution functions of first-passage time to state 0, we will hsow that the estimators of Cont ...

Does Logic Help Us Beat Monty Hall?, 2017 Cedarville University

#### Does Logic Help Us Beat Monty Hall?, Adam J. Hammett, Nathan A. Harold, Tucker R. Rhodes

*Adam J. Hammett, Ph.D.*

The classical Monty Hall problem entails that a hypothetical game show contestant be presented three doors and told that behind one door is a car and behind the other two are far less appealing prizes, like goats. The contestant then picks a door, and the host (Monty) is to open a different door which contains one of the bad prizes. At this point in the game, the contestant is given the option of keeping the door she chose or changing her selection to the remaining door (since one has already been opened by Monty), after which Monty opens the chosen ...

Does Logic Help Us Beat Monty Hall?, 2017 Cedarville University

#### Does Logic Help Us Beat Monty Hall?, Adam J. Hammett, Nathan A. Harold, Tucker R. Rhodes

*The Research and Scholarship Symposium*

The classical Monty Hall problem entails that a hypothetical game show contestant be presented three doors and told that behind one door is a car and behind the other two are far less appealing prizes, like goats. The contestant then picks a door, and the host (Monty) is to open a different door which contains one of the bad prizes. At this point in the game, the contestant is given the option of keeping the door she chose or changing her selection to the remaining door (since one has already been opened by Monty), after which Monty opens the chosen ...