Statistics and Probability Commons^™

New Tools For Quantitative Decision Analysis In Applied Ecology And Conservation, Adam W. Schapaugh

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Scientists have generated a massive body of theory aimed at predicting and managing the impacts of anthropogenic activities on populations, species, and ecosystems. Transforming this research into knowledge that informs complex decision-making problems remains a major challenge in environmental management and conservation. My dissertation research aims to address this issue through the development and application of mathematical and statistical models. I integrate tools, concepts, and techniques from ecology, applied mathematics, computer science, and statistics to build structured decision-making frameworks for spatial prioritization, resource allocation, and optimal scheduling. I also tackle several of the technical challenges limiting the utility of such …

Journal Acceptance Policies On Etds, Chelsea Kern

Statistics

No abstract provided.

Is Obesity Socially Contagious?, Ciani Jean Sparks

Statistics

The main objective of this paper is to analyze three different articles that discuss whether obesity could be socially contagious. According to the World Health Organization in 2013, obesity is the fifth leading risk for deaths around the world. This disease has dramatically increased in the last decade, which has led scientists to believe there are other factors contributing to the epidemic besides genetics. The first article I analyzed, written by Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler, provided a logistic regression model to estimate the odds of a person becoming obese. The model included the explanatory variables: age, sex, education, smoking …

Views On Sexual Assault Among Ifc Fraternities, Steven Legore

Statistics

The data collection and analysis for this project was performed for a consulting client Cierra, a fourth year Sociology major that works at the Safer Office on campus. She went to the consulting center on campus for help with the analysis of her project. She wanted to survey the IFC fraternities at Cal Poly on their views on sexual assault and rape. Thirteen IFC fraternities were surveyed with a total of 488 respondents. The responses to the 30 question True/False survey were used to evaluate the respondent’s empathy towards women, hostility towards women, and sexual aggression. Another research interest was …

Design, Implications And Analysis Of Household Survey: Practical Issues To Note, O. O. Akanji

Bullion

This paper is to enhance the analytic processes of survey data as generated in the established household survey framework for economic policy management and decision making. The paper is divided into four sections. Section 1 is the introduction while Section 2 is the descriptive statistics emphasizing the models that bring out the relationship between the survey variables, Section 4 concludes and proffers recommendations.

A Bayesian Regression Tree Approach To Identify The Effect Of Nanoparticles Properties On Toxicity Profiles, Cecile Low-Kam, Haiyuan Zhang, Zhaoxia Ji, Tian Xia, Jeffrey I. Zinc, Andre Nel, Donatello Telesca

COBRA Preprint Series

We introduce a Bayesian multiple regression tree model to characterize relationships between physico-chemical properties of nanoparticles and their in-vitro toxicity over multiple doses and times of exposure. Unlike conventional models that rely on data summaries, our model solves the low sample size issue and avoids arbitrary loss of information by combining all measurements from a general exposure experiment across doses, times of exposure, and replicates. The proposed technique integrates Bayesian trees for modeling threshold effects and interactions, and penalized B-splines for dose and time-response surfaces smoothing. The resulting posterior distribution is sampled via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. This …

Assessing The Impact Of Differential Genotyping Errors On Rare Variant Tests Of Association, Morgan Mayer-Jochimsen, Shannon Fast, Nathan L. Tintle

Faculty Work Comprehensive List

Genotyping errors are well-known to impact the power and type I error rate in single marker tests of association. Genotyping errors that happen according to the same process in cases and controls are known as non-differential genotyping errors, whereas genotyping errors that occur with different processes in the cases and controls are known as differential genotype errors. For single marker tests, non-differential genotyping errors reduce power, while differential genotyping errors increase the type I error rate. However, little is known about the behavior of the new generation of rare variant tests of association in the presence of genotyping errors. In …

Mind The Gaps, Paul Bankston

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

Rattus Model Utilizing Selective Pulmonary Ischemia Induces Bronchiolitis Obliterans Organizing Pneumonia, John C. Densmore, Paul M. Jeziorczak, Anne V. Clough, Kirkwood A. Pritchard Jr, Breana Cummens, Meetha Medhora, Arjun Rao, Elizabeth R. Jacobs

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Bronchiolitis obliterans organizing pneumonia (BOOP), a morbid condition when associated with lung transplant and chronic lung disease, is believed to be a complication of ischemia. Our goal was to develop a simple and reliable model of lung ischemia in the Sprague-Dawley rat that would produce BOOP. Unilateral ischemia without airway occlusion was produced by an occlusive slipknot placed around the left main pulmonary artery. Studies were performed 7 days later. Relative pulmonary and systemic flow to each lung was measured by injection of technetium Tc 99m macroaggregated albumin. Histological sections were examined for structure and necrosis and scored for BOOP. …

A Graph-Theoretical Approach To The Selection Of The Minimum Tiling Path From A Physical Map, Serdar Bozdag

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

The problem of computing the minimum tiling path (MTP) from a set of clones arranged in a physical map is a cornerstone of hierarchical (clone-by-clone) genome sequencing projects. We formulate this problem in a graph theoretical framework, and then solve by a combination of minimum hitting set and minimum spanning tree algorithms. The tool implementing this strategy, called FMTP, shows improved performance compared to the widely used software FPC. When we execute FMTP and FPC on the same physical map, the MTP produced by FMTP covers a higher portion of the genome, and uses a smaller number of clones. For …

A Study Of The Effects Of Using Computer Spreadsheets On Student Development Of Algebraic Thinking To Compare Function Growth, Beth Stone

Culminating Projects in Applied Statistics

Problem:

The purpose of this research was to explore the effects of incorporating computer spreadsheets on the development of algebraic thinking as it pertains to growth patterns of functions. The study also examined students' ability to transfer skills learned on a computer spreadsheet to problems using pencil and paper, as well the effect of incorporating computer spreadsheets on student motivation, engagement, and communication. Specific questions addressed in the study include: How does investigating an algebra problem about growth patterns by entering numbers, creating formulas, and noticing patterns on a computer spreadsheet affect students' ability to learn the concepts of linear …

Asymptotic And Finite Sample Behavior Of Net Reclassification Indices, Zheyu Wang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) introduced by Pencina and colleagues [1, 2] is designed to quantify the prediction increment provided by a new biomarker. It has become popular for evaluating and selecting novel markers. The published variance formulae for NRI statistics do not account for the fact that risks are estimated based on risk models fit to data, and thus are not valid in practice when estimated risks are used [3]. Kerr and colleagues [4] showed that the confidence intervals constructed based on a bootstrap estimate of the variance and Normal approximation had the best performance among various methods they …

On The Restricted Mean Event Time In Survival Analysis, Lu Tian, Lihui Zhao, L. J. Wei

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Surrogacy Assessment Using Principal Stratification When Surrogate And Outcome Measures Are Multivariate Normal, Anna Conlon, Jeremy M.G. Taylor, Michael R. Elliott

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Lifetime Musical Activities And Cognitive Function Of The Elderly, Alicia Nevriana, Pandu Riono, Tri Budi W. Rahardjo, Adji Kusumadjati

Kesmas

Penurunan fungsi kognitif merupakan salah satu masalah umum pada lanjut usia yang mampu memengaruhi kualitas hidup mereka. Musik merupakan sebuah elemen yang dipercaya mampu berkontribusi terhadap kualitas hidup mereka. Meski demikian, hubungan antara aktivitas musikal yang dilakukan sepanjang hidup dan fungsi kognitif lansia belum diketahui secara pasti. Pada penelitian ini, hubungan antara aktivitas musikal sepanjang hidup dan fungsi kognitif dievaluasi. Lima puluh tiga lansia penghuni panti tresna werdha di Jakarta Timur dipilih dan diwawancarai terkait karakteristik dan aktivitas musikal sepanjang hidup mereka. Fungsi kognitif juga diukur menggunakan MMSE. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan adanya kemungkinan asosiasi antara aktivitas musikal sepanjang hidup …

Targeted Estimation Of Variable Importance Measures With Interval-Censored Outcomes, Stephanie Sapp, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Kimberly Page

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In most experimental and observational studies, participants are not followed in continuous time. Instead, data is collected about participants only at certain monitoring times. These monitoring times are random, and often participant specific. As a result, outcomes are only known up to random time intervals, resulting in interval-censored data. In contrast, when estimating variable importance measures on interval-censored outcomes, practitioners often ignore the presence of interval-censoring, and instead treat the data as continuous or right-censored, applying ad-hoc approaches to mask the true interval-censoring. In this paper, we describe Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation methods tailored for estimation of variable importance measures …

Observational Intensity Bias Associated With Illness Adjustment: Cross Sectional Analysis Of Insurance Claims, J. E. Wennberg, D. O. Staiger, S. M. Sharp, D. J. Gottlieb

Dartmouth Scholarship

Objective: To determine the bias associated with frequency of visits by physicians in adjusting for illness, using diagnoses recorded in administrative databases.

Setting: Claims data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions.

Design: Cross sectional analysis. Participants 20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in the United States in 2007 (n=5 153 877).

Progress Realized: Trends In Hiv-1 Viral Load And Cd4 Cell Count In A Tertiary-Care Center From 1999 Through 2011, Howard B. Gale, Manuel D. Rodriguez, Heather J. Hoffman, Debra A. Benator, Fred M. Gordin, Ann M. Labriola, Virginia L. Kan

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Abstract

Accumulating evidence suggests that alterations in immune function may be important in the etiology of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). To identify genetic markers in immune-related pathways, we evaluated 3,985 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 230 candidate gene regions (adhesion-extravasation-migration, arachidonic acid metabolism/eicosanoid signaling, complement and coagulation cascade, cytokine signaling, innate pathogen detection and antimicrobials, leukocyte signaling, TNF/NF-kB pathway or other) in a case-control study of 344 PTC cases and 452 controls. We used logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (OR) and calculate one degree of freedom P values of linear trend (PSNP-trend) for the association …

Sensor Calibration Systems And Methods For Infrared Cameras, George Speake, Nuwan Nagahawatte, Richard M. Goeden, Ted Takagi, Robert Ernst, Gary B. Hughes, Joseph Kostrzewa, John Graff, Russell Granneman, Michael Kent, Neela Nalam, Stephen Lyon, Barbara Sharp, Pierre Boulanger, Neil Cuteliffe, Tim Martin, Ted Hoelter

Statistics

Systems and methods directed to calibration techniques for infrared cameras are disclosed for some embodiments. For example, a method of determining infrared sensor calibration information, in accordance with an embodiment, includes performing a calibration operation on an infrared sensor to obtain calibration information, wherein the infrared sensor is not within an infrared camera core, and storing the calibration information.

Influenza Forecasting With Google Flu Trends, Andrea Freyer Dugas, Mehdi Jalalpour, Yulia Gel, Scott Levin, Fred Torcaso, Takeru Igusa, Richard E. Rothman

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Background: We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy.

Methods: Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004–2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures …