Disease Modeling Commons^™

Predictive Modeling And Estimation Of The Doubling Time Of Confirmed Cases Of Covid-19 In Niger, Ibrahim Sidi Zakari, Hadiza Galadima

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Modeling is increasingly used to assess scenarios and make projections on the future course of new coronavirus disease. This allows for better planning of care as well as a relaxation or tightening of the restrictive measures decreed by the government and the health authorities. The data analyzed in this study covers the period from March 19 to June 05, 2020 and allowed predictions of new cases of COVID-19 based on a growth model with a growth rate that changes linearly over time. In addition, we calculated and predicted the doubling time of the number of positive cases in each region …

Long-Term Dynamics Of The Kidney Disease Epidemic Among Hiv-Infected Individuals, Heather Gudaz, Henry A. Ogu, Elissa J. Schwartz

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

One of many risks facing HIV+ individuals is the development of kidney dysfunction and end stage kidney disease (ESKD). A differential equation-based mathematical model was developed to assess the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the progression to kidney disease and on reducing mortality due to kidney failure. Analytical and numerical predictions of long-term HIV+ ESKD prevalence show that therapy can lead to either extremely low levels of disease prevalence or increased prevalence, depending on drug efficacy levels and mechanisms of action. Maintenance of HIV+ ESKD prevalence below one individual is possible with sufficient efficacy (e.g., 99%) against the progression from …

Stat5a Regulation By Serine Phosphorylation In Breast Cancer, Alicia E. Woock

Theses and Dissertations

The neuroendocrine hormone prolactin (PRL) and its cognate receptor (PRLr) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of breast cancer. PRL signaling relies on activating kinases such as the tyrosine kinase Jak2 and serine/threonine kinases ERK1/2, NEK3, PI3K, and AKT. In the canonical pathway of PRL signaling, JAK2 phosphorylates the transcription factor STAT5a at tyrosine residue 694 (pY694-STAT5a), preceding STAT5a nuclear translocation and transcriptional activity. However, STAT5a exists with functional duality as a transcription factor, having both pro-differentiative and pro-proliferative target genes. Other STAT family members (STATs 1, 3, and 6) have been shown to have transcriptional activity in the un-tyrosine-phosphorylated …

Addressing The Ecological Fallacy With Lagrangian Inference, Michael Schwob

Calvert Undergraduate Research Awards

Most epidemiologists elect to use statistical models that use population-level data to make inference on the spread of some virus or disease. This has become commonplace in the fields of epidemiology and biostatistics since most data used to construct and verify epidemic models are recorded at the population-level. Obtaining inference from a population-level model may be beneficial in studying the spread of disease in a homogeneous population, but the use of such models to describe a heterogeneous population results in inadequate inference. The inaccuracy of these models is further amplified when one tries to make individual-level inference from these population-level …

Cost-Effectiveness Of Interventions Targeting Hard-To-Reach Populations Living With Hiv In Eastern And Southern Africa, Deo Mujwara

Theses and Dissertations

In Eastern and Southern Africa, hard-to-reach populations (e.g., long distance truck drivers and female sex workers), defined as populations that are difficult to interact or engage with due to their unique behaviors and characteristics, are disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic and are at high-risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV. Further, these populations have substantially low uptake of HIV testing services, and those that have been diagnosed with HIV and on antiretroviral therapy experience high loss-to-follow-up from treatment programs.

Hard-to-reach populations face unique barriers in accessing and utilizing routine HIV care such as provider stigmatization towards sex workers and highly …

Grouping Algorithms For Informative Array Testing In Disease Surveillance, David Sokolov

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

In order to maintain normal operations and prevent unnecessary morbidity and mortality during times of disease outbreak, institutions find a need to conduct frequent and widespread testing of their constituents, often under significantly limited testing resource constraints. Faced with the challenge of how best to allo- cate these limited resources to maximum effect, institutions are increasingly turning to group (or “pooled”) testing, which involves testing strategically-chosen groups of patient samples rather than individual samples, producing significant testing resource savings under certain regimes of disease prevalence. While group test- ing can be conducted without any a priori knowledge of individual disease …

Use Of Lymesim 2.0 To Assess The Potential For Single And Integrated Management Methods To Control Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes Scapularis; Acari: Ixodidae) And Transmission Of Lyme Disease Spirochetes, Shravani Chitineni, Elizabeth R. Gleim, Holly D. Gaff

Undergraduate Honors Theses

Annual Lyme disease cases continue to rise in the U.S. making it the most reported vector-borne illness in the country. The pathogen (Borrelia burgdorferi) and primary vector (Ixodes scapularis; blacklegged tick) dynamics of Lyme disease are complicated by the multitude of vertebrate hosts and varying environmental factors, making models an ideal tool for exploring disease dynamics in a time- and cost-effective way. In the current study, LYMESIM 2.0, a mechanistic model, was used to explore the effectiveness of three commonly used tick control methods: habitat-targeted acaricide (spraying), rodent-targeted acaricide (bait boxes), and white-tailed deer targeted acaricide (4-poster …

Modeling Coupled Disease-Behavior Dynamics Of Sars-Cov-2 Using Influence Networks, Juliana C. Taube

Honors Projects

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has caused significant human morbidity and mortality since its emergence in late 2019. Not only have over three million people died, but humans have been forced to change their behavior in a variety of ways, including limiting their contacts, social distancing, and wearing masks. Early infectious disease models, like the classical SIR model by Kermack and McKendrick, do not account for differing contact structures and behavior. More recent work has demonstrated that contact structures and behavior can considerably impact disease dynamics. We construct a coupled disease-behavior dynamical model for SARS-CoV-2 by incorporating heterogeneous contact …

A Model For Inhalation Of Infectious Aerosol Contaminants In An Aircraft Passenger Cabin, Bert A. Silich

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Aerosol contamination of an aircraft cabin by infectious passengers is a concern of passengers, aircrew and the aviation industry. This may be especially important during a pandemic, such as COVID-19, where the full extent of aerosol transmission is not well understood. A statistical method to determine the number of infectious passengers on board along with a mathematical model estimating the contaminant concentration of aerosols in the cabin and the number of inhaled infectious particles by passengers is presented. An example is used to demonstrated how the results can be estimated during normal operations and emergency conditions with malfunctions of the …

Bibliometric Review On Applications Of Disease Detection Using Digital Image Processing Techniques, Jayant Jagtap, Rahil Sharma, Aryan Sinha, Nikhil Panda, Amulya Reddy

Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal)

Advances around the field of deep learning and cognitive computing have allowed mankind to look and solve the problems of the world in a completely new way. Deep learning has been making huge advancements in the field of healthcare, which most importantly focuses upon disease detection and disease prediction. Techniques such as these have been conceptualized the idea of early detection and economical ways of treating the predicted disease in particular. Still, it has been observed that there seems to be no change in the way diagnosis of a particular disease takes place even in the 21^st generation of …

Feasibility Of Continuous Fever Monitoring Using Wearable Devices, Benjamin L. Smarr, Kirstin Aschbacher, Sarah M. Fisher, Anoushka Chowdhary, Stephan Dilchert, Karena Puldon, Adam Rao, Frederick M. Hecht, Ashley E. Mason

Publications and Research

Elevated core temperature constitutes an important biomarker for COVID-19 infection; however, no standards currently exist to monitor fever using wearable peripheral temperature sensors. Evidence that sensors could be used to develop fever monitoring capabilities would enable large-scale health-monitoring research and provide high-temporal resolution data on fever responses across heterogeneous populations. We launched the TemPredict study in March of 2020 to capture continuous physiological data, including peripheral temperature, from a commercially available wearable device during the novel coronavirus pandemic. We coupled these data with symptom reports and COVID-19 diagnosis data. Here we report findings from the first 50 subjects who reported …

Qki-Mediated Cholesterol Biosynthesis In Eye Lens And Myelin Of The Central Nervous System, Seula Shin, Seula Shin

Dissertations & Theses (Open Access)

Cells obtain cholesterol in two ways, de novo biosynthesis and uptake from circulation. While most tissues utilize both sources, eye lens and brain depend extensively on cholesterol biosynthesis due to the limited supply from circulation. Lens cell membrane consists of highest portion of cholesterol. Brain is the most cholesterol-rich organ, which accounts for 23% of total cholesterol. Genetic mutations of cholesterol biosynthesis enzymes in humans and animal models present cataracts and hypomyelinating disorders linked to neurological impairment. Yet, it remains unclear how gene expression of cholesterol biosynthesis is regulated in lens and brain. Therefore, studying cholesterol biosynthesis in both tissues …

A Context-Forward In Vivo Functional Genomics Platform For Target Discovery And Establishing Vulnerability Context In Pancreatic Cancer, Johnathon Rose, Johnathon Lynn Rose

Dissertations & Theses (Open Access)

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a highly aggressive malignancy with a very poor patient prognosis (5-year survival of ≤ 7%). While transcriptional profiling has aided in the classification of this disease into at least two broader subtypes, this alone has so far been insufficient to inform on more nuanced patterns of oncogenic dependency. We hypothesized that a more comprehensive and granular characterization of PDAC disease diversity is required to establish relevant context for targeted therapy. To this end, we sought to establish an integrated platform to: i) more comprehensively characterize differential oncogenic signaling across our tumor models, and ii) establish …

Great Expectations: Phosph(On)Ate Prodrugs In Drug Design—Opportunities And Limitations, Victoria Yan

Dissertations & Theses (Open Access)

Phosphate and phosphonates are chemical moieties with historical precedence in anticancer and antiviral nucleotide analogues. Synchronous to modern efforts identifying novel therapeutic targets in cancer, such chemical moieties are being investigated in the design of novel inhibitors with antineoplastic potential. A central challenge to the delivery of phosph(on)ate-containing drugs is their anionic character at physiological pH, which portends poor membrane permeability. This limitation has been successfully overcome through the use of prodrugs. When attached to the phosph(on)ate moiety, prodrugs mask the negative charge and easily enable cell permeability. Upon cellular entry, the promoieties are enzymatically or environmentally cleaved to unveil …

Qki-Mediated Cholesterol Biosynthesis In Eye Lens And Myelin Of The Central Nervous System, Seula Shin, Seula Shin

Dissertations & Theses (Open Access)

Cells obtain cholesterol in two ways, de novo biosynthesis and uptake from circulation. While most tissues utilize both sources, eye lens and brain depend extensively on cholesterol biosynthesis due to the limited supply from circulation. Lens cell membrane consists of highest portion of cholesterol. Brain is the most cholesterol-rich organ, which accounts for 23% of total cholesterol. Genetic mutations of cholesterol biosynthesis enzymes in humans and animal models present cataracts and hypomyelinating disorders linked to neurological impairment. Yet, it remains unclear how gene expression of cholesterol biosynthesis is regulated in lens and brain. Therefore, studying cholesterol biosynthesis in both tissues …

Applying Immuno-Epidemiology Principles To Violence, Anna H. Sisk, Nina H. Fefferman, Judy Day, Patricia Bamwine

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Analyzing The Control Measures For The Homeless Population And Quantifying Their Impact On The Covid-19 Epidemic In New York City, Steven Manns

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Mathematical Modeling And Analysis Of The Zika Virus Epidemic With Human Mobility And Parameter Estimation For Localities In Puerto Rico, Carmen Caiseda

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

The Covid-19 Consequences Of College Class Continuity Calculator, Sharon Bewick, Erika Ludden, Suzanne Robertson, Jeffrey Demers

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns, Risk Perception, And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.