Urban Studies and Planning Commons^™

Radical Uncertainty: Scenario Planning For Futures, Marisa A. Zapata, Nikhil Kaza

Urban Studies and Planning Faculty Publications and Presentations

The use of scenario planning in urban and regional planning practice has grown in the last decade as one way to face uncertainty. However, in adapting scenario planning from its origins in the business sector, planners have eliminated two key components: (1) the use of multiple scenarios, and (2) the inclusion of diverse organizations, people, and interests through deep deliberations. We argue that this shift limits the ability of planners to plan for multiple plausible futures that are shaped by an increasing number of diverse actors. In this paper, we use case-study research to examine how uncertainty was considered in …