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Multifidelity Prediction In Wildfire Spread Simulation: Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis, Mario Miguel Valero, Lluís Jofre, Ricardo Torres
Multifidelity Prediction In Wildfire Spread Simulation: Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis, Mario Miguel Valero, Lluís Jofre, Ricardo Torres
Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity
Wildfire behavior predictions typically suffer from significant uncertainty. However, wildfire modeling uncertainties remain largely unquantified in the literature, mainly due to computing constraints. New multifidelity techniques provide a promising opportunity to overcome these limitations. Therefore, this paper explores the applicability of multifidelity approaches to wildland fire spread prediction problems. Using a canonical simulation scenario, we assessed the performance of control variates Monte-Carlo (MC) and multilevel MC strategies, achieving speedups of up to 100x in comparison to a standard MC method. This improvement was leveraged to quantify aleatoric uncertainties and analyze the sensitivity of the fire rate of spread (RoS) to …
Preparing For Wildfire Evacuation And Alternatives: Exploring Influences On Residents’ Intended Evacuation Behaviors And Mitigations, Amanda M. Stasiewicz, Travis B. Paveglio
Preparing For Wildfire Evacuation And Alternatives: Exploring Influences On Residents’ Intended Evacuation Behaviors And Mitigations, Amanda M. Stasiewicz, Travis B. Paveglio
Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity
Understanding residents' intended evacuation behaviors is an increasingly important component of managing complex wildfire events in the United States and elsewhere. Growing evidence suggests that local populations consider a range of potential evacuation behaviors during fire events, yet fewer efforts explore rural residents' evacuation intentions or their relationship to wildfire mitigations that reduce risk or aid in fire suppression. This study explores evacuation intentions among wildland-urban interface residents in Pend Oreille County, Washington, USA. We explore how mitigation performance (e.g., fuel reduction efforts, structure improvements, active firefighting preparation) differs across three emergent categories of evacuation intentions and evaluate whether a …