Models and Methods Commons^™

The Future Of Maine's Forests Under Alternative Socioeconomic, Climate And Conservation Pathways, Jianheng Zhao

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Maine is a historically important timber supply region in North America and understanding the potential change in forestlands and their product industries affected by climate change and various socio-economic conditions can better improve the forest healthy and sustain a sustainable product industry. A statistical harvest choice model for the state of Maine was developed in chapter 1. It was estimated using a multinomial logit model of two products, under varying management intensities, and ownership classifications across varying market conditions. Results indicate that stumpage prices have a significant effect on forest landowners' harvest decisions and that the expansion of conservation land …

Designing Surveys On Youth Immigration Reform: Lessons From The 2016 Cces Anomaly, Saige Calkins

Masters Theses

Even with clear advantages to using internet based survey research, there are still some uncertainties to which survey methods are most conducive to an online platform. Most survey method literature, whether focusing on online, telephone, or in-person formats, tend to observe little to no differences between using various survey modes and survey results. Despite this, there is little research focused on the interaction effect between survey formatting, in terms of design and framing, and public opinion on social issues, specifically child immigration policies - a recent topic of popular debate. This paper examines an anomalous result found within the 2016 …

Measuring ‘Closeness’ In 3-Candidate Elections: Methodology And An Application To Strategic Voting, Daniel Kselman, Emerson Niou, Austin Horng-En Wang

Political Science Faculty Research

Past research suggests that voter behavior is influenced by perceptions of electoral competitiveness. For example, when an election is perceived to be close, voters will be more likely to turnout and/or cast strategic votes for their second-most preferred candidate. Operationalizing electoral competitiveness in three-candidate elections presents previously unrecognized methodological challenges. This paper first shows that many past strategies for measuring ‘closeness’ in three-candidate contests have violated at least one of three basic properties that any such measure should satisfy. We then propose a new measurement grounded in probability ratios, and prove formally that ratio-indices satisfy these axiomatic criteria. Empirical analyses …

The Political Economy Of Vermont’S Abortion Bill, Shishir Shakya, Elham Erfanian, Alexandre R. Scarcioffolo

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

Public choice literature divides the rationality of voting between instrumental and expressive. In this paper, we take the Vermont legislature in passing the H. 57 bill as a case to explain some of the determinants of expressive voting empirically. The H.57 bill declares that no government entity can interfere with, or restrict, a consenting individual’s right to abortion care across the entire gestation period. However, the bill has not changed the previously states quo of the state towards abortion rights. Thus, it creates a situation in which we can analyze the legislator’s voting behavior through the lens of expressive voting …

Agent-Based Modelling Of Values: The Case Of Value Sensitive Design For Refugee Logistics, Christine Boshuijzen-Van Burken, Ross J. Gore, Frank Dignum, Lamber Royakkers, Phillip Wozny, F. Leron Shults

VMASC Publications

We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz’s theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform …

Governance By Other Means: Rankings As Regulatory Systems, Judith G. Kelley, Beth A. Simmons

All Faculty Scholarship

This article takes the challenges of global governance and legitimacy seriously and looks at new ways in which international organizations (IOs) have attempted to ‘govern’ without explicit legal or regulatory directives. Specifically, we explore the growth of global performance indicators as a form of social control that appears to have certain advantages even as states and civil society actors push back against international regulatory authority. This article discusses the ways in which Michael Zürn's diagnosis of governance dilemmas helps to explain the rise of such ranking systems. These play into favored paradigms that give information and market performance greater social …

Early Voting Versus Election Day Voting: Identifying Individual Indicators Of Election Stage Participation In Louisiana Elections, 2015-2016, Anthony Licciardi Jr.

University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Abstract

Does early voting advance the democratic process in achieving political equality? Does it create more equity in the representativeness of an electorate? According to rational choice and economic theory, the expanded opportunity to vote should reduce an individual’s cost to vote, thus resulting in higher voter turnouts where traditionally marginalized voters will take advantage of early voting opportunities.

This research conducts an individual-level analysis of more than five-million voter cases over four consecutive Louisiana statewide elections of all individuals who voted in each of the elections from 2015 to 2016. These elections include the 2016 U.S. presidential election, a …

Decision Tree For Predicting The Party Of Legislators, Afsana Mimi

Publications and Research

The motivation of the project is to identify the legislators who voted frequently against their party in terms of their roll call votes using Office of Clerk U.S. House of Representatives Data Sets collected in 2018 and 2019. We construct a model to predict the parties of legislators based on their votes. The method we used is Decision Tree from Data Mining. Python was used to collect raw data from internet, SAS was used to clean data, and all other calculations and graphical presentations are performed using the R software.

Analyzing The Onset And Resolution Of Nonstate Conflict In The Middle East & North Africa, Emily A. Barbaro

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

By applying structural-functionalist theories of deviance and opposition, this thesis deconstructs nonstate mobilization in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset, the quantitative analysis interpreted both group and leader behavior in conflict situations to determine factors that influenced conflict onset and resolution. The quasipoisson regression analysis of group behavior suggested that polity and state capacity were both significant predictors of violent and nonviolent mobilization. The negative binomial regression of regime behavior suggested that civilian casualties were the most significant predictor of a government response to nonstate mobilization. Ultimately, the …

Gender And Judicial Decision-Making, Alexandra Just

Undergraduate Theses

This study employs a unique two-tiered approach, involving both quantitative and qualitative methodology to analyze the influences – specifically, a judge’s gender – on the judicial decision-making process. First, a quantitative bivariate regression analysis was conducted to determine whether a Federal District Court judge’s gender had a statistically significant influence on the ideological direction of case outcomes (which is either liberal, meaning the decision was in favor of the petitioner, or conservative, meaning the decision was against the petitioner). Data was analyzed using the statistical program SPSS and was pulled from the 2016 Carp-Manning database, which contains over 110,000 federal …

Climate Migration: Evaluating The Conditions That Breed Conflict, Avery Dillon

Honors Thesis

The prediction that climate change will cause conflict is at its core based on the assumption that climate change will trigger resource scarcity, resulting in displaced peoples and potentially violent conflict. However, the empirical evidence supporting this phenomenon is highly uncertain and at times directly contradictory. In recent decades, some have claimed that climate change’s exacerbation of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts have already played major roles in conflicts such as the Syrian Civil War (Selby 2019). Others directly dispute this direct effect, arguing instead that climate change has played only a minor role in influencing …

A Comparative Analysis Of Identity Theft Within America And Australia, Vincent Alagna

Criminal Justice

Identity theft is a very prevalent crime within the United States that has substantial repercussions on society. This study analyzes factors that potentially contribute to America’s elevated rate of identity theft in relation to Australia in order to reveal its cause. It was ultimately found that the United States experiences a greater amount of computer usage within its country, has the ability to implement a stricter prison sentence on those convicted of committing identity theft in accordance with its legal code, and has a greater conviction rate while Australia has a higher prosecution rate. These findings, when applied in the …

Al-Shabaab And Boko Haram: Recruitment Strategies, J. Tochukwu Omenma, Cheryl Hendricks, Nnamdi C. Ajaebili

Peace and Conflict Studies

This paper is an examination of the membership recruitment strategies of two violent extremist organizations (VEOs), namely al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. The majority of the literature on VEOs concentrates on the conceptualization of terrorism, motivations for terrorism and counter-terrorism strategies, as well as a focus on the frequency of VEO attacks, number of fatalities and funding sources. The literature tends to portray poverty as the main driver of recruitment. The focus on recruitment strategies has been relatively recent. There is therefore still a lack of in-depth analyses on the processes of recruitment of specific extremist groups, and this impacts on …

The Dimensions Of Secession In California., Jared J Thomas

College of Arts & Sciences Senior Honors Theses

The purpose of this research paper was to determine whether annual income is an indicator of a respondent’s level of support for the Californian independence movement. Ultimately, the analysis here determined that there is not a statistically significant relationship between the income of the participant and their support for secession in California. However, the data analysis did yield that there is a correlation between an index of ‘Support for Secession’, ‘Interest in Secession’ and ‘Seriousness of Claim’ and income. In addition, this research project determined that there is not a statistically significant relationship between the political ideology of the respondents …

Who Supports Wealth Redistribution? Self-Interest, Symbolic Politics And American Exceptionalism Approaches Towards 1990 Public Opinion, Maggie Wood

Global Tides

Economic inequality has been significantly rising in the United States, making it the most unequal advanced industrialized democracy. Understanding factors that influence public attitudes towards inequality and potential remedies such as redistribution of wealth, gives a reference point for tracking subsequent preference-policy links. This research utilizes survey data from the 1990 General Social Survey to explore factors influencing preferences towards redistribution as gross wealth consolidation among the top 10% was only starting to remerge. Empirically applying theories of economic self-interest, symbolic politics and American exceptionalism to wealth redistribution preferences, the research finds economic self-interest as having the biggest role in …

287— The Question For The Modernization Theory, Fumi Ogura

GREAT Day Posters

In general, democratic countries have higher economic growth than non-democratic countries. The primary reason for this theory is that democracy and capitalism are mostly the two sides of the same coin. Thus, democratic countries can promote economic growth easier than authoritarian regimes. Most developed countries adopt to democracy while there are a lot of developing countries which do not have democratic political institution and adopt authoritarian regimes. For example, most countries in Middle East do not adopt democracy and overall GDP is not as high as developed countries like the US and European countries. However, some Middle Eastern countries that …

Political Ideology And Media Consumption, Andrew Robinson

Georgia College Student Research Events

Politics is a far reaching phenomenon that, in essence, controls everything that we do in our daily lives without us even realizing it most of the time, and it is constantly evolving and changing to fit the narrative of the age. In this modern world, we see an increase in political radicalization, especially in the United States. Politics has become more of a social experience than a set of beliefs, with some going so far as to incorporate it into their personal identity and seek and find the ideas that best fit them. This research analyzes the effect that a …

How To Access Elites When Textbook Methods Fail? Challenges Of Purposive Sampling And Advantages Of Using Interviewees As “Fixers”, Esra Bakkalbasioglu

The Qualitative Report

Social science methods literature identifies gaining access as one of the main challenges of conducting elite interview research. However, the existing literature mostly fails to provide access strategies other than the “textbook” methods of sending email, letters, faxes, or making phone calls. Many researchers, especially the ones who conduct purposive sampling-based in elite interview research encounter various obstacles when they try to gain access to the potential interviewees. Especially in challenging research environments, textbook methods either fail the researchers using purposive sampling or considerably increase the time and energy spent to gain access to elite respondents. Drawing on the author’s …

Testing For Negative Spillovers: Is Promoting Human Rights Really Part Of The “Problem”?, Anton Strezhnev, Judith G. Kelley, Beth A. Simmons

All Faculty Scholarship

The international community often seeks to promote political reforms in recalcitrant states. Recently, some scholars have argued that, rather than helping, international law and advocacy create new problems because they have negative spillovers that increase rights violations. We review three mechanisms for such spillovers: backlash, trade-offs, and counteraction and concentrate on the last of these. Some researchers assert that governments sometimes “counteract” international human rights pressures by strategically substituting violations in adjacent areas that are either not targeted or are harder to monitor. However, most such research shows only that both outcomes correlate with an intervention—the targeted positively and the …

Reviewing Intergovernmental Institutions In Federal Systems: Opportunity For Cooperation, Harrison Schafer

Indiana Journal of Constitutional Design

This Article surveys intergovernmental institutions across federal states. Generally, these institutions offer meaningful cooperation for the different levels of government when addressing state problems. These institutions, however, often lack political authority to bind institutional members or implement authoritative state actions.

This Article proceeds in two general parts. First, this Article taxonomizes intergovernmental institutions across federal systems. Though few intergovernmental institutions are constitutionally mandated bodies, several federal states have enacted legislation to formalize these institutions while others simply utilize informal arrangements. This taxonomy will primarily discuss contemporary institutions within federal systems and focus exclusively on executive institutions. The taxonomy categorizes these …

Approaches To Urban Land Use Governance: Conservation Or Housing Development?, Zlata Nourie

Public Administration ETDs

Around the globe cities are growing and expanding in size. The increase in urban areas changes the face of our planet. Since every city, county, and state have a set amount of land that they can conserve or develop, this thesis investigates factors that impact land conservation or land development for housing. It also establishes the relations between land use, economic, social, and environmental processes in the selected area. From the very beginning, this paper researches different approaches to land use that help municipalities maintain and use their land resources.

The focus of this research is an area of land …

Partisan Voting On The California Supreme Court, Mark P. Gergen, David A. Carrillo, Benjamin M. Chen, Kevin M. Quinn

Faculty Articles

When did ideology become the major fault line of the California Supreme Court? To answer this question, we use a two-parameter item response theory (IRT) model to identify voting patterns in non-unanimous decisions by California Supreme Court justices from 1910 to 2011. The model shows that voting on the court became polarized on recognizably partisan lines beginning in the mid-1900s. Justices usually did not vote in a pattern that matched their political reputations and party affiliation during the first half of the century. This began to change in the 1950s. After 1959 the dominant voting pattern is partisan and closely …

Impacts Of Media Communication To Motivate State Level Policy Action: The Case Of The Colorado River Basin, Abigail Rader

CSB/SJU Distinguished Thesis

The cultivation of life within the American Southwest would not have been possible without the Colorado River Basin. The water in the basin today maintains 40 million people and one-twelfth the American economy. As a result of the significance of this river, the Colorado is one of the most regulated waters in the world, yet drought concerns continue to proliferate due to climate change. Drawing from communication and political science literature, the media have frequently been cited as impacting the policy agenda, particularly local media. This paper addresses how the frequency of The Denver Post news reporting and its framing …

How News Media Coverage Of Crises Promotes Conspiracy Beliefs, Richard L Kornrumpf

Undergraduate Arts and Research Showcase

While scholars of conspiracy theories have recently made great strides in understanding the basic nature and correlates of conspiratorial thinking, we still know little about how conspiracy beliefs are disseminated and communicated, especially when it comes to traditional media. Here we use a unique experiment to investigate whether media coverage of mass shootings – complete with the uncertainty, conflicting reports, and dubious official narratives that characterize such coverage – provides the raw material for conspiracy theories and promotes conspiracy beliefs among viewers. We find that implicit conspiratorial information – that which causes confusion and foments uncertainty – does not enflame …

The Soviet And American Wars In Afghanistan: Applying Clausewitzian Concepts To Modern Military Failure, Artur Kalandarov

Honors Projects

This paper evaluates the validity of three concepts from Carl von Clausewitz’s On War as they relate to contemporary military conflict. Utilizing the Soviet and American Wars in Afghanistan as case studies, the paper also offers a model for comparative conflict analysis by expanding upon Clausewitz’s culminating point concept. It argues that – despite limitations to Clausewitz’s theory of war – his concepts of culminating points in military operations, mass and concentration, and changing war aims provide useful insights into counterinsurgency military failures. Chapter One identifies the Soviet and American culminating points. Concluding that the concept of a culminating point …

The Effects Of Punctuation Events On The Oil Policy Network: A Network Analysis Of Rulemaking Outputs, Fadi M. Mugheirbi

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

In this dissertation, I display the effect of punctuating events on the oil policy subsystem and network and, in turn, on the rulemaking process. Here I examine whether, and to what extent, the changes in the dynamics of the policy network and the composition of the subsystem caused by the punctuation could alter rulemaking outputs and whether these changes occur simultaneously or sequentially across the policy subsystem and network.

Building upon Punctuation-Equilibrium Theory (PET), Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF), and the Policy Network Approach (PNA) alongside the political control literature, I provide explanations for the routines and outputs of rulemaking. Accordingly, …

Tracing Biometric Assemblages In India’S Surveillance State: Reproducing Colonial Logics, Reifying Caste Purity, And Quelling Dissent Through Aadhaar, Priya Prabhakar

Scripps Senior Theses

Tracing Biometric Assemblages in India’s Surveillance State seeks to understand the historical conditions that rendered the nation-state of India as having the world’s largest biometric surveillance system: Aadhaar. Surveillance practices used by the British Raj mirrors the current social order of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as they use surveillance to similar ends in today’s political economy, through the intersecting forces of neoliberalism and ethnonationalism. This thesis is an exploration into how India’s current surveillance regimes cultivate biometric surveillant assemblages through Aadhaar. Contrary to claims that Aadhaar was created to empower the poor, I argue that these surveillance regimes …

Political Centrism, Perspective Taking, And Outgroup Derogation: An Integrated Model, David Kesler

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

Abstract

The relationship between perspective taking abilities, political centrism, and outgroup derogation is not defined at this time. While previous research has demonstrated a negative relationship between political centrism and outgroup derogation (Van Prooijen, Krouwel, Boiten, & Eendebak, 2015), the relationship between the other variables is unclear. Therefore, the current study sought to measure the relationship between (1) perspective taking abilities and political centrism, (2) perspective taking and outgroup derogation, (3) political centrism and outgroup derogation and lastly, (4) whether the relationship between perspective taking abilities and political outgroup derogation would be mediated by an individual's level of political centrism.

Healthy And Unhealthy Responses To American Democratic Institutional Failure, Thomas D'Anieri

CMC Senior Theses

I have set out on the hunch that politics in America “feels different,” that we are frustrated both with our institutions as well as with one another. First, I will seek to empirically verify this claim beyond mere “feelings.” If it can be shown that these kinds of discontent genuinely exist to the extent that I believe they do, I will then explain why people feel this way and why things are different this time from the economic, political, and social points of view. Next, I will examine two potential responses, what I will call the populist and the institutional …

Why Can't We Be Friends: The Significance Of Sovereignty And China's "One Country, Two Systems", Harrison R. Malinowski

Senior Projects Spring 2020

Senior Project submitted to The Division of Social Studies of Bard College.