Models and Methods Commons^™

Elections And Economic Turbulence In Brazil: Candidates, Voters, And Investors, Tony Petros Spanakos, Lucio R. Renno

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor …

Quando O Brasil Era Moderno: O Estado Antes Da Crise Do Estado, Adriano Codato

Adriano Codato

This article proposes and develops an analytical scheme based on historical neo-institutionalism to explain the genesis of State capacities through exclusively political variables. Taking the case of the exponential growth of State power during the Brazilian Estado Novo regime (1937-1945) as my problem, I seek to reflect on the empirical determinants and, as deriving from them, the theoretical criteria that are responsible for accounting for three simultaneous occurrences: decision-making centralization at the head of the Federal Executive, influence of formal government institutions on processes of recruitment and selection of political personnel and unequal sharing of decision-making power among different elite …

Approach To Model On The Fourth Generation Port Competitiveness: An Application For Pda, Yiwen Cao

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

A Formação Do Campo Político Profissional No Brasil: Uma Hipótese A Partir Do Caso De São Paulo, Adriano Codato

Adriano Codato

Through examination of the political properties and the socio-occupational characteristics of São Paulo state representatives at the 1946 National Constituent Assembly, this article provides evidence of three types. With regard to those who were in control of key positions within the State throughout the period of the República Velha (1889-1930) there was: i) an important change in the social origin of the elite; ii) at the same time, a greater professionalization of the political class and iii) these two processes were not simultaneous, yet a "political renovation" did occur, identifiable for example through the change in age group within the …

Por Um Retorno À Sociologia Das Elites, Renato Perissinotto, Adriano Codato

Adriano Codato

No abstract provided.

A Student’S Guide To The Unique Iranian Theocracy, Evan Linhardt

Honors Capstone Projects - All

When listening to the news one day I heard the president of a nation describe wiping another country off the map. Later I heard from the same president that his country would defy United Nation recommendations and continue their nuclear program. The media took a great interest in this mans’ speeches and their potential implications. They portrayedIranas a country on the brink, challenging the world to stop them. The media unfortunately was focusing on the wrong man’s rhetoric because although he is labeled as president ofIran, he will not have a say in declaring war on another nation nor will …

Spray-Painting The State, Stenciling The Self: Opening Commons Of Art And Identity Though Asamblea, Jesse Waldman

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

This paper explores the way in which Oaxaca, Mexico’s traditional indigenous form of community organization and governance, the asamblea, has been appropriated and reconstituted in the urban context of Oaxaca city. While perhaps the most widely known adaptation of the asamblea was and continues to be the APPO - la Asamblea Popular de los Pueblos de Oaxaca, I have focused upon a loosely organized group of 30- 40 street artists and their asamblea, ASARO - la Asamblea de Artistas Revolucionarios de Oaxaca. Fragmenting the text with image narrative, personal narrative, analysis, and direct quotation, I hope to convey the daily …

The Illicit Arms Trade: A Social Network Analysis, David Todd Kinsella

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent years, researchers have increasingly turned their attention to the proliferation of small arms and light weapons. Small arms are difficult to track and are not the stuff of military parades, but they are immensely destructive. In addition to what is already circulating, a substantial percentage of what is newly produced enters the black market and is destined for conflict zones across the globe. I argue that the illicit trade in small arms shares some important properties with networked forms of organization studied by sociologists. I then employ quantitative methods developed for the study of social networks in an …

Economic Efficiency Versus Public Choice: The Case Of Property Rights In Road Traffic Management, Jonathan R. Nash

Faculty Articles

This Article argues, using the case of responses to traffic con­gestion, that public choice theory provides a greater explanation for the emergence of property rights than does economic efficiency. The tradi­tional solution to traffic congestion is to provide new roadway capacity, but that is not an efficient response in that it does not lead to internaliza­tion of costs and may actually exacerbate congestion problems by induc­ing travel that would not have taken place but for the new construction. By contrast, congestion charges, which impose tolls designed to internal­ize the costs of driving, offer an efficient way to address the problem …

Parâmetros Para Uma Análise Empírica Da Relação Entre Idéias, Elites E Instituições, Adriano Codato

Adriano Codato

This article proposes a set of parameters for understanding political behavior in Brazil during the first part of the twentieth century. Starting from a precisely-defined political problem the São Paulo state political elite s adhesion to and ideological support for the Estado Novo regime we will engage in more general reflections on the relationship between ideas, elites and political institutions. For these purposes, we give salience to two types of variables which enable us to locate political agents within social space, understand their mental dispositions, how they are formed, and what inspires and how they explain their actions. We refer …

Poulantzas, O Estado E A Revolução, Adriano Codato

Adriano Codato

The article exposes the theory of the capitalist state formulated for Nicos Poulantzas. It is possible to find, in his work, three successive and different formulations of what the state is: a structure, an apparatus and a social relation. Each of these definitions corresponds to a political strategy in regard to the overcome of the capitalist state, so that the two problems, the function of the state and the destruction of the state, must be considered together.

Civil War And Political Contractualism Incomplete (Guerra Civil Y Contractualismo Político Incompleto) Spanish, Fernando Estrada

Fernando Estrada

This chapter presents an interpretation of armed conflict in Colombia since reading "negative" of the Coase theorem. The relations of the civil war with limited conditions of policy and constitutional order, offer advantages to agents in a society threatened violent.

Complementary Institutions And Reflexive Governance In Autonomous Social Law, Richard R. Weiner

Faculty Publications

We approach institutions as stabilizing structures with consequences of functional incorporateness. Yet we also imagine, assert and enact claims and warrants as institutionalizable practices. There are functional supports. And there are the warranted claims of categorical normativity. Normativity in itself can be understood in terms of compliance with or acquiescence in legitimating structures. Yet normativity itself can be understood as a solidarism we intersubjectively co-constitute. The challenge in political thought has been dealing with the disincorporateness associated with modernity, specifically how a new order and dialogue may be of heterogeneous social values. A new way of ordering socioeconomic relationships of …

Social Entrepreneurship In The Practice Of Deliberation And Dialogue, Roger A. Lohmann

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Advocates of public deliberation and sustained dialogue, like other change agents, often embrace roles as social entrepreneurs and engage in entrepreneurial efforts in promoting their cause. In particular, this may involve locating the resources necessary to establish and engage in programs of D & D, seeking to establish the costs and benefits of such programs, and furthering research into their effectiveness.

Nothing But The Truth? Experiments On Adversarial Competition, Expert Testimony, And Decision Making, Cheryl Boudreau, Mathew D. Mccubbins

Faculty Scholarship

Many scholars debate whether a competition between experts in legal, political, or economic contexts elicits truthful information and, in turn, enables people to make informed decisions. Thus, we analyze experimentally the conditions under which competition between experts induces the experts to make truthful statements and enables jurors listening to these statements to improve their decisions. Our results demonstrate that, contrary to game theoretic predictions and contrary to critics of our adversarial legal system, competition induces enough truth telling to allow jurors to improve their decisions. Then, when we impose additional institutions (such as penalties for lying or the threat of …

Super Medians, Lee Epstein, Tonja Jacobi

Faculty Articles

It is not surprising that virtually all analyses of the Supreme Court stress the crucial role played by the swing, pivotal, or median Justice: in theory, the median should be quite powerful. In practice, however, some are far stronger than others. Just as there are “super precedents” and “super statutes”—those that are weightier or more entrenched than others—there are “super medians”—Justices so powerful that they are able to exercise significant control over the outcome and content of the Court’s decisions.

Conventional wisdom holds that Justices accumulate power by virtue of their personality, methodological approach, or even background characteristics. But our …

Agenda Power In The Italian Chamber Of Deputies, 1988-2000, Gary W. Cox, William B. Heller, Mathew D. Mccubbins

Faculty Scholarship

We find strong evidence that governing coalitions in Italy exercise significant negative agenda powers. First, governing parties have a roll rate that is nearly zero, and their roll rate is lower than opposition parties’ roll rates, which average about 20% on all final passage votes. Second, we find that, controlling for distance from the floor median, opposition parties have higher roll rates than government parties. These results strongly suggest that governing parties in Italy are able to control the legislative agenda to their benefit. We also document significantly higher opposition roll rates on decree-conversion bills and budget bills that on …

When Voters Make Laws: How Direct Democracy Is Shaping American Cities, Elizabeth Garrett, Mathew D. Mccubbins

Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Electoral Poaching And Party Identification, Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

This article studies electoral competition in a model of redistributive politics with deterministic voting and heterogeneous voter loyalties to political parties. We construct a natural measure of `party strength' based on the sizes and intensities of a party's loyal voter segments and demonstrate how party behavior varies with the two parties' strengths. In equilibrium, parties target or `poach' a strict subset of the opposition party's loyal voters: offering those voters a high expected transfer, while `freezing out' the remainder with a zero transfer. The size of the subset of opposition voters frozen out and, consequently, the level of inequality in …

For Whom The Tel Tolls: Can State Tax And Expenditure Limits Effectively Reduce Spending?, Thad Kousser, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Ellen Moule

Faculty Scholarship

Can voters stop state governments from spending at high rates through the enactment of tax and expenditure limits (TELs), or do these laws become dead letters? We draw upon the principal-agent literature to theorize that TELs – one of the most frequent uses of the initiative process across the country – may be circumvented by the sorts of elected officials who would inspire their passage.

In order to investigate our claim, we conduct an event study. First, we test for the effectiveness of TELs across states using a differences-in-differences model. Second, we dissect our treatment variable using different legal provisions …

Affective Flexibility: Evaluative Processing Goals Shape Amygdala Activity, William A. Cunningham, Jay J. Van Bavel, Ingrid Johnsen Haas

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

Although early research implicated the amygdala in automatic processing of negative information, more recent research suggests that it plays a more general role in processing the motivational relevance of various stimuli, suggesting that the relation between valence and amygdala activation may depend on contextual goals. This study provides experimental evidence that the relation between valence and amygdala activity is dynamically modulated by evaluative goals. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants evaluated the positive, negative, or overall (positive plus negative) aspects of famous people. When participants were providing overall evaluations, both positive and negative names were associated with amygdala activation. When …

Interest In Politics, Cigdem Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

No abstract provided.

Marital Status And Voting Behavior, Cigdem Sirin

Cigdem V. Sirin

No abstract provided.

Much Ado About Pluralities: Pride And Precedent Amidst The Cacophy Of Concurrences, And Re-Percolation After Rapanos, Donald J. Kochan, Melissa M. Berry, Matthew J. Parlow

Donald J. Kochan

Conflicts created by concurrences and pluralities in court decisions create confusion in law and lower court interpretation. Rule of law values require that individuals be able to identify controlling legal principles. That task is complicated when pluralities and concurrences contribute to the vagueness or uncertainty that leaves us wondering what the controlling rule is or attempting to predict what it will evolve to become. The rule of law is at least handicapped when continuity or confidence or confusion infuse our understanding of the applicable rules. This Article uses the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision in Rapanos v. United States to …

The Soft Power And Persuasion Of Translations In The War On Terror: Words And Wisdom In The Transformation Of Legal Systems, Donald J. Kochan

Donald J. Kochan

The power of words is the power of persuasion. The exportation of the foundational legal principles that helped form the American republic can serve as instrumental "soft power" tools in the war on terror. Efforts promoting projects like the Arabic Book Program are important vehicles to cross-cultural and cross-lingual international relations. This Article argues that an arsenal of words can be as, or more, powerful than an arsenal of artillery. The West has much to offer, but the rest of the world needs to be able to read it without getting lost in translation. Providing linguistic access to the documents …

The Developer’S Decision Calculus: An Agent-Based Model Of Commercial Development, Mirya R. Holman, Travis Coan

Mirya R Holman

While considerable research has been devoted to understanding the impact local regulatory environments on housing development, few studies have examined the implications of land-use regulations for commercial development. The paucity of studies is unfortunate given that commercial development often provides municipalities with considerable economic benefits (e.g., employment) and a crucial source of tax revenue. This study presents a formal model of the commercial development process that explicitly incorporates the dynamic interaction of commercial developers and local cities. Specifically, we construct an agent-based model (ABM) of the commercial development process that represents some key features of the development process. We form …