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Full-Text Articles in Asian Studies
Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia
Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, SMU postgraduate student and Research Assistant for the SInDEx Project Muskan Bagrodia and International Monetary Fund Economic Research Assistant Khyati Chauhan weighed in on why inflation expectations matter as much as economic data. They discussed how inflation expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and shared the key takeaways of the quarterly DBS-Sim Kee Boon Institute’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (DBS-SKBI SInDEx) survey. They concluded that effective communication on inflation control measures, in addition to credible policy decisions, will help consumers feel assured and refrain from basing purchasing decisions …
Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes
Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The expectations of economic agents have significant impact on their decisions and are key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment. For example, if a worker believes that consumer prices will rise sharply next year, she would demand a wage increase. Similarly, a homeowner with a fixed interest mortgage might make an early repayment if she expects price levels to fall, knowing that the real value of her mortgage debt will increase. In these cases, expectations about inflation could lead to changes in behaviour and in the aggregate, influence prices and become self-fulfilling.
Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii
Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we propose a new method of poverty decomposition. Our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time-revision consistency and subperiod additivity. It integrates the existing methods of growth-redistribution decomposition and sector based decomposition, because it allows us to decompose poverty change into growth and redistribution components for each group (e.g., regions or sectors) in the economy. We extend out method to have six components and provide empirical application to the Philippines for the period of 1985 to 2009.
Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The study of inflation expectations of Singapore house-holds is a multi-disciplinary industry-relevant research that comes out of a partnership between Singapore Management University (SMU) and MasterCard. The research team for this MasterCard-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) project applied rigorous methods using current internet-based marketing survey tools for data-collection and advanced econometric techniques to analyse the data. The updates from the quarterly waves are keenly followed by policymakers, market watchers and the media because of the enormous importance of cost of living to individuals and businesses alike.
Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii
Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application To The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we propose a new method of poverty decomposition. Our method remedies the shortcomings of existing methods and has some desirable properties such as time-reversion consistency and subperiod additivity. It integrates the existing methods of growth-redistribution decomposition and sector-based decomposition, because it allows us to decompose poverty change into growth and redistribution components for each group (e.g. regions or sectors) in the economy. We extend our method to have six components and provide an empirical application to the Philippines for the period 1985-2009.
Forecasting Inflation In Asian Economies, Freddy Chian Fatt Liew
Forecasting Inflation In Asian Economies, Freddy Chian Fatt Liew
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
This paper surveys the recent literature on inflation forecasting and conducts an extensive empirical analysis on forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflation-markup theory can help to forecast inflation. We first review the relative performance of different predictors in forecasting h-quarter ahead inflation using single equations. These models include the autoregressive model and bivariate Philips curve models. The predictors are selected from business activity, financial activity, trade activity, labour market, interest rate market, money market, exchange rate market and global commodity market variables. We then evaluate a vector autoregressive inflation-markup …
Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The aim of this report is to highlight a broad spectrum of issues that brings about the measurement of the disagreement and the uncertainity and the formation of inflation expectations among economic agents in Singapore.