Finance Commons^™

Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.

Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The policy gap between US and China is likely to be widening further, potentially raising and unevenly distributing the risks of negative spillovers for Asia and the rest of the world.

Stock Returns, Oil Prices, And Leverage: Evidence From U.S. Firms, Md Ruhul Amin, André Varella Mollick

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper examines how the relationship between stock returns of U.S. firms and WTI oil prices is affected by leverage (debt to total assets) from 1990 to 2020. Results from our fixed-effect regression models suggest that leverage effects on stock returns are pervasive both in aggregate and cross-industry levels, while the mining industry is more sensitive. In addition to the positive oil price effects attenuated by leverage at the aggregate level, we observe stronger marginal effects of leverage only for the mining sector. Being more exposed to commodity prices, the positive effects of oil prices on stock returns in the …

Does Family Income Determine A Children Future Educational Attainment Level?, Diaisha T. Richards

Applied Economics Theses

Family income and education have been a major concern in a variety of researches, and as a topic in society. These two components are a major concern because they are known to be key elements in determining future success for an individual. Various studies investigated the significance, correlations and impacts these two factors have on one another. It is common for the amount of family income obtained to determine how much education one will receive in the future. This study focuses on testing the hypothesis that family income determines how much education a child will receive in the future. By …

Given Today's New Wave Of Protectionsim, Is Antitrust Law The Last Hope For Preserving A Free Global Economy Or Another Nail In Free Trade's Coffin?, Allison Murray

Loyola of Los Angeles International and Comparative Law Review

No abstract provided.

Venezuela Undermines Gold Miner Crystallex's Attempts To Recover On Its Icsid Award, Sam Wesson

Loyola of Los Angeles International and Comparative Law Review

No abstract provided.

Likely Trajectory Of Fed Policy Far From Settled, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Markets seem to be assuming an almost pre-set path of Fed policy normalization in 2019, including hiking rates and shrinking the balance sheet. In contrast, we see many uncertainties ahead.

Modelling Public-Education Spending Vs. Allocation As Independent Factors Of Educational Outcomes, Kevin Tasley

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper explores and expands upon the work of Hanushek and Wößmann (2007) whose accumulated findings propose increased educational spending provides only marginal returns in terms of student’s cognitive outcomes. This study constructs an OLS regression model to explore the significance of U.S. state education spending and financial allocations as independent factors of state-level average ACT scores over a 10-year time series. The model additionally accounts for self-selection and socio-economic status. The results of this study support Hanushek and Wößmann’s conclusions while also demonstrating evidence that shifts in allocations towards instructional spending, as opposed to increasing total expenditures, could have …

Inequality And Financialization, Oscar C. Soons

Senior Honors Projects

This paper analyzes economic inequality in the United States and makes a connection between rising inequality and “Financialization” since the 1970’s. I provide an overview of how and why income and wealth inequality have changed over time. The increase in inequality since the 1970’s is correlated with an increase in Financialization, measured by a Financialization index that I created. Financialization, defined as the increasing size, power and influence of the financial sector in the economy and politics, has changed the economic and political landscape in the United States in a way that increases economic inequality.

A Look At The Controversies Of The United States Export-Import Bank, Bo A. Johnson

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

The Ex-Im Bank is the official export credit agency of the United States. The Bank was established in 1934 to aid a depressed economy and foster global trade. Ex-Im was mandated to improve economic conditions and international trade by providing financial assistance where the private sector fell through, while not competing against private firms. The bank has four main tools to perform its responsibilities - direct loans, loan guarantees, working capital financing, and credit-export insurance.

The Ex-Im Bank has enjoyed a long history of strong bipartisan support. Opposition surfaced in the late 2000's leading to an Ex-Im temporary shutdown. The …

The Affordable Care Act: Five Years Later, Andrew Dana Izatt

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

The challenges facing the American health care system are well known and manifold. The United States pays substantially more for its health care than any other developed, industrialized nation. Per capita health care spending in 2012 was $8,745, up from $356 in 1970 without marked improvements in life expectancy, quality of life, or outcomes. But despite all of our health spending, large portions of our population go without health insurance. Being uninsured carries real consequences. A report published in the American Journal of Public Health, by researchers at Harvard Medical School, using statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and …

A History Of Financial Regulation In The Usa From The Beginning Until Today: 1789 To 2011, Gary Richardson

Gary Richardson

No abstract provided.

The “Price Puzzle” Under Changing Monetary Policy Regimes, Andre V. Mollick, Adolfo Sachsida

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper examines the “price puzzle”, the rise in the price level following a contractionary monetary policy shock, using monthly US data from 1960 to 2006. Deviating from the standard practice is including commodity prices to “solve the puzzle”, our benchmark VAR contains output, prices, the federal funds rate and M1 money stock, while the augmented VAR includes the 10-year long bond yield. Splitting the sample at October of 1979, we find very contrasting patterns and rationalize them under the changing relationship between money and the funds rate across periods. First, the price puzzle is confined to the pre-Volcker period. …

Basel Iii And Credit Risk Measurement: Variations Among G20 Countries, Matt Schlickenmaier

San Diego International Law Journal

Most countries require banks to hold extra capital to protect against unforeseen financial calamities; banks with riskier loans must hold more capital than those with safer loans. Basel II, a set of international banking standards, allows banks to measure a loan’s risk in different ways: some banks make their own judgments; others use outside agencies. The recent mortgage crisis prompted banks to reevaluate these methods, in part due to banks having failed to perceive the high level of risk inherent in securitized mortgages. The international community’s response was Basel III, an updated version of its previous standards. This Comment will …

Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …

United States Sovereign Debt: A Thought Experiment On Default And Restructuring, Charles W. Mooney Jr.

All Faculty Scholarship

This chapter adopts the working assumption that it is conceivable that at some time in the future it would be in the interest of the United States to restructure its sovereign debt (i.e., to reduce the principal amount). It addresses in particular U.S. Treasury Securities. The chapter first provides an overview of the intermediated, tiered holding system for book-entry Treasuries. For the first time the chapter then explores whether and how—logistically and legally—such a restructuring could be effected. It posits the sort of dire scenario that might make such a restructuring advantageous. It then outlines a novel scheme …

Stock Markets And Household Wealth: Can A Stock Market Crash Cause A Recession In The U.S. Economy?, Ishan Singh

Honors Theses

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds …

Real Estate Mutual Funds: A Style Analysis, Crystal Lin, Kenneth Yung

Finance Faculty Publications

We find that the characteristics of real estate related securities are different from those of the general common equities. To help investors understand better the products offered by real estate mutual funds, we develop style descriptors that are specifically created for real estate related securities. Among the universe of real estate securities, we find real estate funds tilt toward large stocks and favor growth moderately over value. Growth managers outperform value mangers in this sector by 1.51% to 2.30% per year. However, there is evidence of shifts in the investment style among the funds. Our results help investors in evaluating …

Outdoor Recreation And Water Development: The National Recreation Lakes Study, Bruce R. Brown

Outdoor Recreation: Promise and Peril in the New West (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

12 pages.

Fish And Wildlife Funding—Past And Future [Abstract], R. Max Peterson

Outdoor Recreation: Promise and Peril in the New West (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

1 page.

Market Solutions To Public Recreation Finance: Creating User-Supported Parks, Donald R. Leal

Outdoor Recreation: Promise and Peril in the New West (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

11 pages.

Contains 1 page of references.

Market Solutions To Public Recreation Finance: The Texas State Parks Example, Donald R. Leal

Outdoor Recreation: Promise and Peril in the New West (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

11 pages.

Contains 1 page of references.

The User Fee Approach To Hunting And Fishing Finance: The “Teaming With Wildlife” Proposal, R. Max Peterson

Outdoor Recreation: Promise and Peril in the New West (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

18 pages (includes color illustrations).

Contains footnotes.

The Limitations Of A Market-Based Outdoor Recreation Policy: Reasons For Caution, Scott Silver

Outdoor Recreation: Promise and Peril in the New West (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

13 pages (includes illustrations).

Contains references.

Field Level Conflict Management In Outdoor Recreation, Arden Anderson

Outdoor Recreation: Promise and Peril in the New West (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

16 pages.

Contains references.

Outdoor Recreation And Natural Lands: The Gradual Unfolding Of Policy, Richard L. Knight

Outdoor Recreation: Promise and Peril in the New West (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

10 pages.

Contains 2 pages of references.

Financing Development In Indian Country, Thomas N. Tureen

Natural Resource Development in Indian Country (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

7 pages.

The Governmental Context For Development In Indian Country: Modern Tribal Institutions And The Bureau Of Indian Affairs, Susan M. Williams

Natural Resource Development in Indian Country (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

26 pages.

Taxation In Indian Country, Richard B. Collins

Natural Resource Development in Indian Country (Summer Conference, June 8-10)

11 pages.